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set bet sizing

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  1. #1

    Default set bet sizing

    sooo....got another hand here i'd like some perspective on. basically, my question is, how should you size your bets when you hit your set? hand posted for example. i think i may have bet a little too aggressively on the river, but im not sure; i was hoping that with a pot of 1.5k, he would come over the top with his last 1k, thinking my pot bet was bluffy. anyways, i guess the matter is, when you do hit your set, whats the best way to extract value from it on certain boards, eg safe/straightening/flushing, and against lag/tag players?

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 20/40 Blinds (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (BB) (t3470)
    UTG (t1380)
    UTG+1 (t2150)
    MP1 (t1455)
    MP2 (t1455)
    CO (t1365)
    Button (t1400)
    SB (t825)

    Hero's M: 57.83

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 5
    1 fold, UTG+1 calls t40, 4 folds, SB calls t20, Hero checks

    Flop: (t120) 8, 5, Q (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets t90, UTG+1 calls t90, 1 fold

    Turn: (t300) 6 (2 players)
    Hero bets t240, UTG+1 calls t240

    River: (t780) 2 (2 players)
    Hero bets t780, 1 fold

    Total pot: t780
    http://zorkion.blogspot.com/
    Letting the Cards Fall - Tracking my progress in the pursuit of profitability.
  2. #2
    I dont mind the pot bet on the river, maybe 3/4 would have been better but meh. He either has a Q, an 8 or some kind of pocket pair here or not. If he has a busted FD he is not going to call no matter what. The best way to get value on the hand is to bet it as aggressively as possible and especially at the levels you are playing people are willing to go broke with TPNK in a spot like this.
  3. #3
    fulksy's Avatar
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    maybe make river bet a bit smaller, but otherwise seems pretty good
  4. #4
    I had a hand almost exactly like this today. I also felt I overbet the river (same thing, big pot sized bet), but sometimes as losttrem says if they miss their hand they're not giving you any more money. If you really think they missed I guess you could try a min bet and see if they'll try to bluff you out.

    You kind of need a read on what your opp might have and how you think they'll react to different sized bets. Pretty hard to do, and I'm not all that good at it. You can also try to estimate odds that your bet will be called to calculate your value on the bet. For example if you think opp will call a 400 chip bet 50% of the time and an 800 chip bet 30% of the time, it's better to just bet the 800 as over the long run you'd make 240 chips vs 200 chips. Of course the numbers are all made up, so it's not all that scientific.
    - ManicLombax
  5. #5
    I agree with the others - flop and turn bet sizes are good (maybe I make it 100 on the flop but w/e) and on the river I make it like 550 rather than full pot and hope and pray that opp shoves over.
  6. #6
    120 on flop, 320-350 on turn

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