Rivers are for thinking

This is the FT 50/50.

BB holds J8o. Let's ignore pre flop. I am CO. FWIW I'm 15/8 or so over 25 hands.

Do you like bet on river? Why/why not?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 60/120 Blinds (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB (t14164)
BB (t9970)
UTG (t4930)
UTG+1 (t4510)
MP1 (t10630)
MP2 (t11075)
MP3 (t6530)
CO (t14550)
Button (t16270)

CO's M: 80.83

Preflop:
5 folds, CO bets t310, 2 folds, BB calls t190

Flop: (t680) Q, 3, J (2 players)
BB checks, CO bets t480, BB calls t480

Turn: (t1640) K (2 players)
BB checks, CO checks

River: (t1640) 7 (2 players)
BB bets t1440, CO calls t1440

Total pot: t4520

very close...depends on how light he thinks you are looking him up. his bet looks like a busted flush draw so often, but it's hard for you to look him up with worse...how often are you calling with 88-TT....

If BB decides to bluff river I think the way he sized it is best. He's repping 2pair+ fairly well when CO almost never has it. Sometimes BB c/r's QJ and 33 on the flop, but you can't rule it out. AT, T9, KQ, and KJ are definitely in his range. Thats a ton of combos of valuebets and very very little combos of bluffs.

CO can't really assume BB is capable of turning a made hand into a bluff, so the only bluffs left are XXss that have no pair. There's very few combos of those missed flush draws. I think a lot of regs will fold marginal Qx and very often J9/JT/AJ[doh]. I'm not sure if thats enough to justify bluffing over check/folding...sigh. I don't know how to do the math on this but it does seem like it would end up being very close. It has to be the best option if CO has a very wide opening range and can hero fold things like K8

BB could decide to bluffcatch, but if CO is a thinking player he knows its hard for BB to have complete air and therefore will bluff the river almost never. He should decide to either check/fold or bomb it

pffft I snap this with any Q/J/K.

This must be one of those hands I have no right to comment on because the BI must be one month's rent for me.

Anyhoo...

That's some G-shit to pull on the river, though I'm not sure I understand fjuanl's reasoning entirely. I understand it intuitively, sure, but I don't understand the back-math or "next level" thinking.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

This is the FT $50/50k gtd.

I hope your rent is > $5!

Originally Posted by fjuanl

I think a lot of regs will fold marginal Qx and very often J9/JT/AT.

k, prolly not that last one


As for hand, if I understand correctly - hero is CO, question is whether we like BB's river bet

From hero's perspective, BB's line of c/c flop / check turn / bet most of pot on river seems either weak and/or bluffy. I think we’d call with a Kx, Qx and possibly Jx. I could even see us potentially making a marginal call with an underpair (88-TT?) in some instances. I doubt we'd feel too good about it though.

From BB's perspective, bet is trying to fold out better which I think may succeed sometimes, many players could fold Qx or Jx, and Kx may muster a fold every now and then. BB is not often getting called when they're ahead. Overall it is not bad given that hero's line doesn't inspire a very strong range, and even if strength on flop could be Qx, this play may fold it out a good percentage of the time.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

I hope your rent is > $5!

I live in a dorm...no rent for me lol.

I have been blockbetting fairly small in these spots lately with my marginal showdown hands.

It lets me be in control of the betsizing so I don't have to check and then decide to call a pottish sized bet on the river. I like a bet of right around 500 again on the river.

Very few opps are raising it is a bluff, and the hands that are calling (any J, Q, or K) are only calling because there really is no value here in raising unless you have 2 pair or better.

I think betting 500 is just throwing away 500 chips seeing as you're literally never getting called by a worse hand, nor probably ever folding a better one other than some better jacks that would have checked back the flop anyway. Why not just min-bet if you want to block bet?

I don't mind the river bluff, you really shouldn't be calling without at least AK.

Meh, I don't hate his bet. Villain needs you to fold 46.75% so it seems profitable...Is it wrong that I look at the river and think how sick it would have been if you shoved over?

This is not a good bet at all. I don't see why he thinks he needs to bluff anyway he has the best hand a good amount.

I'm guessing you had AK or KT?

I thought it was a cool bluff or a terrible block/value bet.

I had K8s or K9s

I like the way you posted this hand drmcboy - nice change up sometimes looking at it without knowing what hero has, but knowing what your opponent is working with. Nice thought-provoking thread.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

I thought it was a cool bluff or a terrible block/value bet.

I had K8s or K9s

what was your calling range