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PS $75k $55 FO - post flop with ElkY :(

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  1. #1

    Default PS $75k $55 FO - post flop with ElkY :(

    BB in this hand is ElkY who's running 43/38 at this point (over probably 50 hands or so). The only hands I've played versus him have been PF, both times when I have 3 bet him (he folded the first time and pushed the second time). I opened mostly as a steal (I've raised his BB once so far and he folded).

    Fold the river?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 55 Tournament, 600/1200 Blinds 125 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Button (t13879)
    SB (t53457)
    BB (t51132)
    UTG (t12223)
    UTG+1 (t33611)
    Hero (MP1) (t29328)
    MP2 (t25712)
    MP3 (t16319)
    CO (t28884)

    Hero's M: 10.03

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8, K
    2 folds, Hero bets t2877, 5 folds, BB calls t1677

    Flop: (t7479) 2, 10, 3 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks

    Turn: (t7479) 7 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks

    River: (t7479) K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets t3777, BB raises to t13456, Hero ...
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
    Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.

    blog: http://donkeybrainspoker.com/


    Watch me stream $200 hyper HU and $100 Spins on Twitch!
  2. #2
    I would lean fold but getting 2/1 calling can't be terrible.

    I don't think it matters much, I'm sure he can do this with some hands you beat and also for value since if you don't have a K you probably won't call (or would have bet before now). And you'll bet a K.

    pre flop seems really thin given BB is a tricky player who will call a lot, you still have to get through half the table, and you like almost no flops enough to like getting your stack in. I would rather have 98s and 50+ BBs.

    What scares me is you don't c bet flop or turn, and you don't even seem to think this is weird enough to explain why. If you're often stealing and then giving up on boards like this it's a huge leak and for sure you can tank your K8ss from MP. If you did this because it's Elky then there's one more reason to fold pre. Worst case if you get check raised by a worse hand it isn't like you're folding away a decent draw, you have 6 outs that are not at all clean.
  3. #3
    The table was tight and he seemed to be respecting raises that weren't from LP, so I thought it was an okay spot to steal. I haven't seen him call much as he's been mostly raising PF, so I wasn't sure of his calling range. I wasn't interested in playing a big pot with him, and I see why you're saying I should have just folded PF.

    Thanks!
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
    Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.

    blog: http://donkeybrainspoker.com/


    Watch me stream $200 hyper HU and $100 Spins on Twitch!
  4. #4
    One thing that seems clear is that he likely isn't putting you on any Kx besides AK. What he thinks your river bet range is...I have no idea. guessing and rambling continued:

    Your perceived range after checking back flop is stuff like 77-99, AJ-AK, maybe sets and AA/KK some of the time. So when he checks again on the turn I think you can credibly rep a legitimate hand.

    He probably hasn't forgotten that you 3bet/folded earlier. I'd assume he could think that people who can 3bet a wide range can also valuebet thinly. So since you check turn it looks like 88-99 is not likely, as well as sets and big overpairs.

    Since you probably have an aggressive image, he could figure that your the type to turn AJ/AQ type hands into bluffs on the river. Or maybe he's still thinking you could be pulling a really thin vbet with an underpair.

    As far as him ever having air on the river, it seems possible. I'm sure he's smart enough to realize that checking back this flop means you have a little piece and the turn is a bad spot to bluff
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    What scares me is you don't c bet flop or turn, and you don't even seem to think this is weird enough to explain why. If you're often stealing and then giving up on boards like this it's a huge leak and for sure you can tank your K8ss from MP. If you did this because it's Elky then there's one more reason to fold pre. Worst case if you get check raised by a worse hand it isn't like you're folding away a decent draw, you have 6 outs that are not at all clean.
    I don't really agree with any of this

    There is nothing wrong with raising PF with a crap hand and then shutting down if called, if your assumptions that led you to raise PF are that people are only calling or raising with a really tight range. If this is what you think then when you do get called you should already be worried and you shouldn't c-bet when you expect to get called or raised the majority of the time and you have almost no equity in the pot if you do. This is especially true if your opponent is a smart player and is capable of flatting big pairs as a trap. I'd actually say the opposite of what you said, if you're stealing from EP and c-betting this board with this stack then it's a huge leak because if they're folding to your c-bet that often it shows they're playing a wide enough range PF that playing this hand was a horrible idea.

    I'd still fold pre though with Elky in the BB, and I'd check back the river too because he can be check-raising some monsters on this river card if he thinks you have AK a fair amount. If he has KQ or KJ he'd probably check the river expecting you to bet all the hands you'd call with, as well as bet some bluffs too, so I think you're value owning yourself a lot more here than you would be if you had AK. Definitely fold to the check-raise.

    Quote Originally Posted by fjuanl
    Or maybe he's still thinking you could be pulling a really thin vbet with an underpair.
    no
  6. #6
    LOL

    [x] ElkY is one of the chipleaders of EPT Barcelona right now
    [ ] post flop with ElkY
  7. #7
    There is nothing wrong with raising PF with a crap hand and then shutting down if called, if your assumptions that led you to raise PF are that people are only calling or raising with a really tight range.
    I agree with this 100%, i just don't think it applies.

    I think this steal has a low enough chance of working without following up that we should just fold. We don't have any info the table is playing tight and know for sure the BB is not. This is a great flop to fold all Ax and BWs, why not try?
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    LOL

    [x] ElkY is one of the chipleaders of EPT Barcelona right now
    [ ] post flop with ElkY
    maybe he didn't sleep? :P
    derp
  9. #9
    Elky is fully capable of doing this with air. I would also have to say this is probably never a monster either as villain isn't likely to miss out on value.

    courtiebee: Do you have an idea of what Elky thinks you have?
  10. #10
    I dont think betting the river has much value. Would he call here with a worse hand like ace high?

    I also think his bet is a cold stone bluff and he thinks you tried to steal the pot. Given the action on the flop and turn...do you think he would check to you the river with a better hand than yours (K with better kicker or AA)?
  11. #11
    id personally fire a c bet on the flop if not def the turn. if you are willing to check down the flop and turn than checking the river is a better play here. theres no value in betting the river in this spot. you hit your best card and put yourself in a real tough spot. he's not calling with A high in this spot and when he raises regardless if he's bluffing or caught 2 pair or has a Kx you cant call his raise for about half your stack.

    as played check the river
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    LOL

    [x] ElkY is one of the chipleaders of EPT Barcelona right now
    [ ] post flop with ElkY
    damn, I got owned by an Elky imposter

    Thanks for your help.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
    Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.

    blog: http://donkeybrainspoker.com/


    Watch me stream $200 hyper HU and $100 Spins on Twitch!
  13. #13
    If he has a big hand on the river, check/shoving is often going to be his best line to get the most value. If he leads, your mostly in a call or fold spot. If he check/shoves, he can sometimes get Hero's whole stack.
  14. #14
    I personally would call this river raise unless I knew the Elky wanna be was a level 0 or 1 player. But I also have trouble giving bad lines credit for much.
  15. #15
    lol@his line being bad.
    derp
  16. #16
    whats good about it thorne?
  17. #17
    Think about his possible river options, and think about possible outcomes of said options.

    Think about how weak our range looks going into the river, as well. There are so many reasons why check is better than bet in ElkY's spot.
    derp
  18. #18
    Your assuming ElkY has hero beat?
  19. #19
    I think that he'd rarely take this line against a random (which courtiebee is) with a worse hand.
    derp
  20. #20
    And courtiebee should def. fold here.
    derp
  21. #21
    if thats true then shouldn't he bet smaller for value? Villains sizing isn't screaming call me.
  22. #22
    derp
  23. #23
    What is Elky trapping exactly? Hero has shown almost no strenght
  24. #24
    1)Villain bets, courtie folds
    2)Villain bets, courtie calls
    3)Villain bets, courtie raises

    They're in the order of probability without us knowing courtie's hand, given the action. By betting, Elky folds out all of courtie's potential bluffs. While I think she rarely does bluff there, checking with intent of raising is the best play for Elky.

    His raise size is designed to make hero go wtf and get valuetowned.
    derp
  25. #25
    I get that but this isnt the real elky apparently (which is weird in itself lol). So I am guessing this is just a random lagg? 2 things you said that I disagree with.

    1. Your saying villain is trying to valuetown Court but then list her most likely action as folding.

    2. Again, if this is a value check-raise. Why would fake elky want to fold out all of Court's potential bluff hands?
  26. #26
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    I think with a hand this horrible a minbet on the flop is usually gonna be a million times better than checking. I would need some sort of backdoor outs or a decent ace high to justify checking such a dry flop after raising in early position with a hand this garbage.

    And yeah, vs a top player you aren't getting any value on the river here. It just doesn't make sense for you to have air, unless you are turning like 66 into a bluff, which would be pretty weird.
  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by revolvingiris
    2. Again, if this is a value check-raise. Why would fake elky want to fold out all of Court's potential bluff hands?
    Him checking the river is going to result in courtie bluffing the river a lot more than if he leads, while at the same time giving him the chance to get the whole stack in
  28. #28
    I thought it was close fold vs Elky who def struck me as the kind of guy who would love making these plays with nothing in some lame donkament.

    But vs Elky's Korean friend playing this tourney on the side of his WoW raid it's much more likely for value
  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by fjuanl
    Quote Originally Posted by revolvingiris
    2. Again, if this is a value check-raise. Why would fake elky want to fold out all of Court's potential bluff hands?
    Him checking the river is going to result in courtie bluffing the river a lot more than if he leads, while at the same time giving him the chance to get the whole stack in
    ok yeah I get it now...but what is still confusing me about this hand is that his check raise is so big. Meaning, ElkY-2 wont get paid off as much.

    Also, FWIW I'm checking this back on the river. Just trying to discuss as the hand was played.

    Just a thought, Say hypothetically courtiebee has 99 in this same spot. Is villains line still a good one?

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