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Play this $20+2 hand for me.

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  1. #1

    Default Play this $20+2 hand for me.

    I am going to try something here. Not sure how this will work so if it dies it dies. This hand happened early in the SNG and without divulging the results of the hand just know that I know exactly what villain has. Let's start on the flop with the understanding that you have no reads on villain at all.

    What is your move here on the flop and what is your plan based on how villain may react based on your move.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP2 (t1720)
    Hero (MP3) (t1560)
    CO (t1420)
    Button (t1320)
    SB (t1480)
    BB (t1400)
    UTG (t1500)
    UTG+1 (t1500)
    MP1 (t1600)

    Hero's M: 52.00

    Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, J
    4 folds, Hero bets t60, 3 folds, BB calls t40

    Flop: (t130) Q, 10, K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero ???
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  2. #2
    I bet about 80 here. If opp raises, I'm most likely out of there unless it's a donkminraise. If opp calls, I re-evaluate on the turn but this is most definitely a small pot hand, so if he checks I check behind for sure.
  3. #3
    Nice Idea.

    I probably bet 100 here. With no reads I would need to re-evaluate if he raised and depending on the amount would probably let it go this early. On the + side it is rare to flop a flush, and villian's implied odds if he holds the As is not good. I'm looking to get to showdown here relatively cheaply.
  4. #4
    OK, so we bet 80 and although villain doesn't minraise he may as well have. Do you flat here and play a turn or fold?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP2 (t1720)
    Hero (MP3) (t1560)
    CO (t1420)
    Button (t1320)
    SB (t1480)
    BB (t1400)
    UTG (t1500)
    UTG+1 (t1500)
    MP1 (t1600)

    Hero's M: 52.00

    Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, J
    4 folds, Hero bets t60, 3 folds, BB calls t40

    Flop: (t130) Q, 10, K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB raises to t200, Hero ???
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  5. #5
    I'm interested to see what others think, I like this idea of posting stage by stage through a hand Gator.
    I know this isn't the answer you're looking for, and may well sound retarded, but I hate the idea of calling this. I'd say about 66% of the time in this spot I'd fold and the other 33% I'd ship it. Since you've given (or had) no reads, I'm folding before we get too deep and still don't know where we stand in the hand.
    The other 1%, I'd call and pray.
    Keep in mind that I haven't played beyond the $11 level.
    Donk Skills:
    #1 The bluff call
    #2 The Drawing-Dead Value Bet
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  6. #6
    After the turn raise, I'm most likely getting out of there. This looks far too much like a structured value bet by something that has you hosed than a bluff, and I can't see too much that you beat raising for value like this (except for a set which is sort of unlikely since opp didn't raise preflop). Sucks also that you have no redraws at all (if you had the A it would be very different).

    That said, I don't think that peeling a turn card is terrible, but if we do call here we are folding to any reasonable bet on the turn (isn't having position great!).
  7. #7
    Tai,
    Would you put AKo, AQ or TT in his range? I agree that we never improve here, but I am also not giving him credit for a made flush and, in fact, I think a made flush flat calls there most of the time unless it was a baby flush (which villain shouldn't have in this spot).

    I will give this a few more hours before posting the next step.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  8. #8
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    The PF raise was standard and he was BB. What if he has SC'ing spades and is worried about you having the A? I muck to his raise. However, with position on him. I feel I would have checked behind him post flop. Let a card come off and start all over with my evaluation. He is possibly thinking you will Cbet when he checks and you could be ahead. It's early and you have plenty of time. MUCK, MUCK, MUCK

    Great thread Gator, more of these would certainly be helpful to many of us.

    Xxxxx
    Careful what you wish for.....you just may get it!
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH
    Would you put AKo, AQ or TT in his range?
    Yes, I would put all those hands in his range but if he had any of those hands I would expect him to lead the flop so that he doesn't give you a free draw if you've got a naked spade.

    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH
    I agree that we never improve here, but I am also not giving him credit for a made flush and, in fact, I think a made flush flat calls there most of the time unless it was a baby flush (which villain shouldn't have in this spot).
    Why don't you give him credit for a made flush? If the A came on the flop I would tend to agree, but I definitely wouldn't discount a flopped flush here.

    On reflection, I think I like peeling a turn card and seeing what he does on the turn.
  10. #10
    OK, so we peeled a turn, it blanked and BB led out a 1/2 to 3/4 PSB.
    The pot is at 890 chips, BB has 780 chips left and we have 1,300 chips left.

    What is your move here and why?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP2 (t1720)
    Hero (MP3) (t1560)
    CO (t1420)
    Button (t1320)
    SB (t1480)
    BB (t1400)
    UTG (t1500)
    UTG+1 (t1500)
    MP1 (t1600)

    Hero's M: 52.00

    Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, J
    4 folds, Hero bets t60, 3 folds, BB calls t40

    Flop: (t130) Q, 10, K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB raises to t200, Hero calls t120

    Turn: (t530) 7 (2 players)
    BB bets t360, Hero ???
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  11. #11
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    I probably just stick it in here. If he flopped the flush that sucks, but there are more hands he plays this way than just that. I also tend to think he'd play one slower.
    Just dipping my toes back in.
  12. #12
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    Odds are it's all going in on the river now. However, I just call the turn bet. If the spade makes it. I can muck and save 4 or 5 hundo. If it doesn't and he pushes. I am calling. I think our hand is good but I want to lose the minimum if it isn't.

    Xxxxx
    Careful what you wish for.....you just may get it!
  13. #13
    As I said above, if we're peeling a turn card and he leads the turn, I'm outta there pretty bloody quick. We are way behind a range that check/raises the flop then leads a pot-committing amount on the turn on a very scary board.
  14. #14
    I ran some ranges in Pokerstove and this is interesting. If we include sets/two pairs in opp's range then we're actually slightly ahead of his range:

    Board: Qs Ts Ks
    Dead:

    equity win tie
    Hand 0: 55.270% 53.14% 02.13% { AhJd }
    Hand 1: 44.730% 42.61% 02.13% { KK-TT, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KQs, KTs, QTs, Js9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, KQo, KTo, QTo }

    If we exclude the two pair hands then we're solidly behind:

    Board: Qs Ts Ks
    Dead:

    equity win tie
    Hand 0: 29.746% 28.19% 01.55% { AhJd }
    Hand 1: 70.254% 68.70% 01.55% { KK-TT, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, Js9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s }

    In each case I've included the TT-KK since I think sets may play like this, even on this board. So ultimately it comes down to whether we think opp will play two pair like this.
  15. #15
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    I think sets will play like this. He's committed enough with his draws that he'll call turn as a big dog, and you seem overly optimistic that he'll shove his missed draws on the river OneEye. Get the money in while we're likely ahead and he'll call with worse.
    Just dipping my toes back in.
  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by bjsaust
    I think sets will play like this. He's committed enough with his draws that he'll call turn as a big dog, and you seem overly optimistic that he'll shove his missed draws on the river OneEye. Get the money in while we're likely ahead and he'll call with worse.
    I don't disagree that sets will play like this (particularly because they have redraws against a flopped flush), however I doubt that a naked spade draw would check/raise the flop then lead the turn. Even if we include the sets (and OESD with JJ), all the possible spade flushes but not the two pair hands then we're still behind on the flop - see my ranges above.
  17. #17
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    Most FDs will be combo draws. Two pair hands are iffy, but I dont think we can totally exclude them.
    Just dipping my toes back in.
  18. #18
    Tai, Personally I think you have too many flush hands in your range. For a cash game yes, but in a SNG there are a number of those hands that won't call a raise if it is just BvB. I also think AK and AQ could be in his range.

    I agree with bjsaust that we are either slightly ahead or pretty solidly ahead of his range here.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  19. #19
    let's keep discussing ranges for villain as I think that is the most important aspect of this hand.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  20. #20
    We can't put him on a range of hands without a read, and you seem to have a good read on him. So, assuming he's not calling with ATSC, there aren't too many flushes in his range.

    Taipan is right in that since the As didn't flop, you do have to put alot of combos of nut flushes in there still, but also quite a few semi-bluffs.

    I'm calling, and I'll let him bluff the river if it bricks.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH
    Tai, Personally I think you have too many flush hands in your range. For a cash game yes, but in a SNG there are a number of those hands that won't call a raise if it is just BvB. I also think AK and AQ could be in his range.
    This is where it gets read dependent, and (shhh!) I might Sharkscope him to see whether he's a winning or losing player. I can't ever see a winning player playing AK or AQ without the A like this (AK would lead the flop and give up to any action, AQ would probably just give up).

    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH
    I agree with bjsaust that we are either slightly ahead or pretty solidly ahead of his range here.
    I disagree with this, I cut out some of the suited gapper-type hands and added in the AsKx, AsQx and AsTx hands and we're still behind his range:

    Board: Qs Ts Ks
    Dead:

    equity win tie
    Hand 0: 38.027% 35.92% 02.11% { AhJd }
    Hand 1: 61.973% 59.86% 02.11% { KK-TT, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh }
  22. #22
    How much does ICM play into this? If it was me getting this kind of action early in an STT and no reads, I'm done on the flop. Yes, I'm trying to win the thing, but first I need to last long enough to get to the bubble. I wouldn't want to risk my chance to money on an early questionable hand. You might be waaaaaaaaaay ahead here, but a better spot can be found. And yes, I said better spot. I think that finding better spots is more reasonable in STTs than in an MTT where cEV is the way to go and you have to push your edges.
  23. #23
    rong's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by taipan168
    This is where it gets read dependent, and (shhh!) I might Sharkscope him to see whether he's a winning or losing player.
    I use the sharkscope HUD these days, it's done wonders for my ITM %. Knowing who to avoid, who to put pressure on and who you can steel from makes decision making so much easier.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  24. #24
    I'd call turn and non spade rivers. i would also shove if he checks a river brick
  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Sprayed
    How much does ICM play into this? If it was me getting this kind of action early in an STT and no reads, I'm done on the flop. Yes, I'm trying to win the thing, but first I need to last long enough to get to the bubble. I wouldn't want to risk my chance to money on an early questionable hand. You might be waaaaaaaaaay ahead here, but a better spot can be found. And yes, I said better spot. I think that finding better spots is more reasonable in STTs than in an MTT where cEV is the way to go and you have to push your edges.
    In the concept of "better spot" is where we think we are relative to opp's likely range. I don't think we can make an assessment of how good this spot is relative to potential future spots without thinking about what opp's likely range might be given his/her actions.
  26. #26
    Tai is correct in that the difficulty of this hand lies within our ability to assign villain a range., not ICM The ranges that have been discussed, which imo could all be valid ranges, have our equity on the turn from anywhere between 30% (Tai's range above) to 62% (my assigned range of - 99+,AsJs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,J Ts,98s).

    My point here is that when you are reviewing your tournaments, whether you folded to villain's turn bet, shoved over and won, shoved over and lost to a flopped flush, or shoved over and lost on the river you should still try to assign a range of hands to see what the best line is for what you think villain's entire range is, not what he had.

    As I mentioned at the beginning of the thread I didn't have a read on villain, but I must have picked up some sort of timing tell (or just got lucky). Results are as follows:

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP2 (t1720)
    Hero (MP3) (t1560)
    CO (t1420)
    Button (t1320)
    SB (t1480)
    BB (t1400)
    UTG (t1500)
    UTG+1 (t1500)
    MP1 (t1600)

    Hero's M: 52.00

    Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, J
    4 folds, Hero bets t60, 3 folds, BB calls t40

    Flop: (t130) Q, 10, K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB raises to t200, Hero calls t120

    Turn: (t530) 7 (2 players)
    BB bets t360, Hero raises to t1300 (All-In), BB calls t780 (All-In)

    River: (t2810) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

    Total pot: t2810

    Results:
    BB had Q, A (one pair, Queens).
    Hero had A, J (straight, Ace high).
    Outcome: Hero won t2810
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  27. #27
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    Apparently this guy didn't have a read on the Hero either. With no spade, I am not sure what this guy is thinking. If he didn't have a spade, is he thinking you may have one?

    Xxxxx
    Careful what you wish for.....you just may get it!
  28. #28
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    I'd guess so. He probably puts hero on a FD after the flop. I really expected at least 2P here.

    Interesting the ranges/equity though. I really thought our hand was fairly strong here.
    Just dipping my toes back in.

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