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Marginals [11 9-man]

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  1. #1
    Jack Sawyer's Avatar
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    Default Marginals [11 9-man]

    I kind of always forever suck in this situation. What do we do here? Does an average villain always have some sort of an A here? Am I seeing spirits more often than not?
    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



    MP2 (t3760)
    CO (t1630)
    Jizzy Sawya (Button) (t1800)
    SB (t1455)
    BB (t1740)
    UTG (t910)
    MP1 (t2205)

    Jizzy Sawya's M: 12.00

    Preflop: Jizzy Sawya is Button with ,
    4 folds, Jizzy Sawya bets t300, 1 fold, BB calls t200

    Flop: (t650) , , (2 players)
    BB bets t1440 (All-In), Hero (t1500) ?
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  2. #2
    250 preflop to keep the pot a little smaller. Flop is a very easy fold for me unless you have a specific read on BB.
  3. #3
    Why is this an easy fold? I am not disagreeing, just asking, because I find these spots tough too. If the BB has an Ace or better then why is he shoving? I can think of three reasons: he wants it to look like a bluff, he has Ace rag and wants a better Ace to fold or he is afraid of the flush draw. It seems to me that most people don't play like that, so this is really a bluff a lot of the time. Would it make a difference if the board was completely dry? What if we had Ah9h?

    What do we do if we pick up a decent hand in late position in the next couple of rounds with him in the BB and we have a stack of 15BB or more? Do we raise and call if he shoves the flop again or do we shove AI pre and avoid any difficult decisons, but risk someone behind waking up with KK or whatever?
  4. #4
    FlyingSaucy's Avatar
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    It depends a lot on how much you think bb is sensitive to steals. Have you been open raising in late position a lot? In general I actually am less afraid to call this overbet than I would be to call a 3/4 pot bet.
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Duffryn View Post
    Why is this an easy fold? I am not disagreeing, just asking, because I find these spots tough too. If the BB has an Ace or better then why is he shoving? I can think of three reasons: he wants it to look like a bluff, he has Ace rag and wants a better Ace to fold or he is afraid of the flush draw. It seems to me that most people don't play like that, so this is really a bluff a lot of the time. Would it make a difference if the board was completely dry? What if we had Ah9h?
    The other option is that opp has a flush draw with something like KcQc and is trying to get us out of the hand. OK, maybe I overstated it by saying it is an easy fold, but in order to call this I would need a read that opp had made a ballsy bluff like this before with weak hands.

    Quote Originally Posted by Duffryn View Post
    What do we do if we pick up a decent hand in late position in the next couple of rounds with him in the BB and we have a stack of 15BB or more? Do we raise and call if he shoves the flop again or do we shove AI pre and avoid any difficult decisons, but risk someone behind waking up with KK or whatever?
    I would make a standard raise and hope that he shoves over, or if he calls then pick off his supposed bluff on a favourable flop.
  6. #6
    It is a ballsy bluff to shove an A high flop, if you don't have an A. It seems that players who call raises in the BBs do shove a lot though and I never know what they have, because I don't ever seem to hit these flops at all.
  7. #7
    To me stack sizes have a big impact here. If opp called in the BB and then shoved his remaining 650 chips I would insta call. With bigger stacks it's just too hard to guess what he might have - whether he's completely bluffing, has an A with a better kicker than us or has some sort of a draw.

    Anyway, if you want to run some ranges in Pokerstove, the ICM on this is as follows:
    - If we fold we will have 1500 chips worth 11.8% of the prize pool
    - If we call and win we will have 3590 chips worth 24.6% of the prize pool
    - If we call and lose we are effectively out.

    Therefore, we need to be 11.8/24.6 = 48% to win to make this a good call.
  8. #8
    Hmm, maybe it's far closer than I thought:

    Board: As 8c Tc
    Dead:

    equity win tie
    Hand 0: 47.705% 34.47% 13.24% { Ac2s }
    Hand 1: 52.295% 39.06% 13.24% { AA, 88, 22, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, A2o+, KJo+, QJo }
  9. #9
    Its closer than I thought too. I would fold A2 here because its losing to all the low aces he might shove to get another low ace to fold. Something like A9 would have been a more difficult decision.

    Thanks for expanding on your thoughts.
  10. #10
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    What's the buyin? I see randoms shoving here w KT.

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