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KK on A high flop, 27ish people left in a 5.50 MTT

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  1. #1

    Default KK on A high flop, 27ish people left in a 5.50 MTT

    It never crossed my mind to fold, I was going down with the ship... should I have continued to let him bet?

    Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 1,000/2,000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    UTG: 46.6 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 17.95, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 40)
    UTG+1: 15.91 BB (VPIP: 8.89, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 46)
    MP: 28.87 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
    MP+1: 53.12 BB (VPIP: 39.02, PFR: 21.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
    Hero (CO): 20.05 BB
    BTN: 33.81 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
    SB: 34.41 BB (VPIP: 16.33, PFR: 4.20, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 150)
    BB: 18.15 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 12.96, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 57)

    8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has K K

    UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 4 BB

    Flop: (16.3 BB, 2 players) A 6 3
    UTG bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 12.95 BB and is all-in, fold

    Hero wins 22.3 BB
  2. #2
    I'd just 3b shove pre. UTG has us easily covered, and seems bad. Feels like a no brainer to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    When you 3-bet PRE, what range did you put Villain on to call?
    Same question for his raising range?

    OTF:
    If you call, what price did he just get for his flush draws?
    Spoiler:
    3/(16.3 + 3 + 3) = 13.4%

    Given that his flush draws have 9 outs, we can use the rule of 2 and 4 to guess his equity to make his flush as 18%.
    So he'd be paying less to draw a card then he'd be gaining to draw the card.

    Problem is... how many FD's are in his UTG range - in a 3-bet pot?
    We need to know how that 25% VPIP is adjusted for his position, and responding to a 3-bet w/ a call.
    He's playing pretty loose over the 40 hand sample, but is 2nd in chips, so probably not a complete donk.
  4. #4
    When you 3-bet PRE, what range did you put Villain on to call?
    Are people actually doing this at the table? When I decide to 3b pre or not, I'm quickly making vague assumptions about if villain can call a large enough number of worse hands. I'm not actually putting him on a range, I'm estimating roughly what the bottom of his calling range needs to be, and then asking if he calls it. Perhaps I'm asking if he can fold enough better hands too, but for now I'm only thinking of value.

    I guess I'm still essentially putting villain on a range, I'm just taking short cuts. Still, the way mojo words this question implies that he expect full range assessment in the time given. I think this is unrealistic and not the most efficient use of time. I use the bulk of my time to figure out pot odds and to make decisions about sizing.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    For example... I have ATs on SB facing a range from EP. I'd be wanting villain to be calling any suited ace before I make this 3b. Does villain call it? (y/n) If no, then I just call, or maybe even fold. Now I have 88. Well now I want villain to be calling smaller pairs and some Axs while ideally not flatting QQ+ before I think a 3b is good.

    These are just quick examples of my thought process when making decisions. It's not a perfect method by any means, but it's time efficient and allows me more time to consider sizing and potodds.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #6
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbo4life View Post
    It never crossed my mind to fold, I was going down with the ship... should I have continued to let him bet?
    If you really were never going to fold postflop, then yes you should have continued to let him bet. Your raise accomplishes nothing since it never will get a better hand to fold and the draws will still call. So all it does is allow the bluffs to stop bluffing (which we don't want).
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  7. #7
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Still, the way mojo words this question implies that he expect full range assessment in the time given.
    Sorry if it seemed that way.

    I meant that right now, here we are with all this time to make really good decisions, and use these as a plan for when we're in a time-crunch at the table.

    Whatever shortcuts you use at the table are fine. I don't personally put Villains on exact ranges at the table, either. I get a visual flash of a hands chart that I try to make a quick assessment of. It's a very intuitive process for me at the tables. However, that intuition is only as good as the study I put in beforehand.

    ***
    The important thing here is not so much an exact range, but trying to make sure that when we raise PRE, we're not doing so solely based on Hero's cards. We raise because we have a plan which means that raising AK is more profitable than not raising. This thread is the time to examine that plan more thoroughly.

    The thing is that it doesn't take much info to make a guess to an exact range. Just expect to be wrong and surprised a lot while you're getting started. Every one of those mistakes is a learning opportunity.

    In this hand, we can probably cap Villain's range PRE. Probably. I hope OP can give us a sense of whether he thinks Villain is the type to slow-play PRE. My guess is the generally aggro stats on Villain indicate a general lack of slow-playing PRE. (Maybe OP can correct me.)

    ***
    The thing is that this board is interesting because the more I think about it, the less Villain is likely to have any piece of it. (But any piece he has is crushing Hero.)
    Villain's range to open and call a 3-bet from UTG... that's a VERY specific range. There are not too many combos in there.
    1) UTG ranges are the tightest at the table
    2) Villain had to respond to a 3-bet PRE, further subdividing his UTG range.
    3) Villain's response was not a 4-bet, indicating he's not holding AA
    4) Hero blocks KK down to 1 combo.

    There's so much in there that pretty solidly puts Villain on a mid-high PP... maybe AKs... which hero blocks down to 8 combos, and the flop blocks down to 6 combos. I'd be surprised if Villain turned up here with AJ-, and dumbfounded if he had A9-.

    Given all this, I kind of want to call Villain down. Either A) Hero loses the min when he's beat, or B) Hero wins the max when he's ahead.
  8. #8
    Eric's Avatar
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    Yeah, you put a little over 1/3rd of your stack in pre-flop so this is nasty. I probably would have 3-bet all in pre-flop to avoid this type of spot
  9. #9
    I wouldn't 3-bet all-in preflop, I would do what OP did. As for the flop, definitely just flat.
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  10. #10
    Eric's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by donkbee View Post
    I wouldn't 3-bet all-in preflop, I would do what OP did. As for the flop, definitely just flat.
    Agreed that flatting on the flop is better than shoving. Still, with just 13 BB left it isn't the worst thing in the world to shove.
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by donkbee View Post
    I wouldn't 3-bet all-in preflop, I would do what OP did. As for the flop, definitely just flat.
    Thing is, I would certainly be 3b shoving AK/TT/JJ with <20bb, so I feel like I should be playing QQ+ the same. I'm generally not 3b bluffing with such a small stack, unless we're deep into the tournament. I dunno how fishy these games are, but in my experience playing $5 games, I'm not expecting many people to be folding pairs, AJ+ and maybe even KQ vs a 20bb 3b shove.

    Granted, I might be losing value playing KK like this, but I think that depends on the villain. Lacking solid enough reads, at these stakes I default to a generally fishy enough average to justify a shove.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  12. #12
    Good discussion, haven't checked back here in awhile. I didn't shove preflop because I didnt want to lose him. I was looking for value all the way. I was paying attention at the hands he was playing and his range is probably alot wider than his stats showed. This hand was awhile ago now so I don't remember everything about it. What I do remember about it is that his lead on the flop SCREAMED weakness, and the pot was significant especially at that stage of the tournament. So the question was really, do I end the hand now or do I risk him catching up on the turn and possibly getting committed and knocking me out. Looking back now, I think the fact that I did not have a backdoor flush draw is a good justification for shoving the flop. Is it enough justification to forgo the value of letting him possibly bet into me on the turn? Again, looking back at the hand now I don't think he bets the turn unless he picks up a draw, because calling the flop looks way too strong on that board given the action.

    So lets say hypothetically I flat the flop and the pot is now 20.3 BB and I only have 9 behind. The turn comes a 3rd heart. He puts me all in, and hits his flush on the river. I'm out of the tournament now. Was it worth the chance? That's my real question. I haven't done the math but I figure it's gotta be profitable to let him try to catch up. I was in the middle of a losing streak when I played this hand, which was probably the factor that influenced me to shove on the flop. I wasn't in the mood to get knocked out of a tournament because I slowplayed 1 pair. Great responses to this thread though, thanks for the insights

    edit : The reason I said I'm never folding is because villain is leading into me on that board in a 3bet pot. If he had an ace, why is he leading into me?
    Last edited by Turbo4life; 07-15-2015 at 02:32 PM.
  13. #13
    Eric's Avatar
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    Glad it worked out for you even though cowboys were an ace magnet on this hand.
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Thing is, I would certainly be 3b shoving AK/TT/JJ with <20bb, so I feel like I should be playing QQ+ the same. I'm generally not 3b bluffing with such a small stack, unless we're deep into the tournament.
    I would rather have a 3b NAI range where I do it sometimes with bluffs and sometimes with nutted hands like QQ+ and sometimes AK. With this stack size I'm not doing it that often, but it's nice to have it as an option.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
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