KK DoN bubble hand...

i think this goes either way, but i really thought hard about folding it. villain was 60/20. but, i am more concerned about the btn being so short. surely, doubling up puts me on lockdown, but i am wondering if it's even worth the risk?

PokerStars Game #22038927737: Tournament #120509277, $5.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2008/11/14 16:27:40 ET
Table '120509277 1' 10-max Seat #10 is the button
Seat 2: dominicjul (5440 in chips)
Seat 3: jayj334 (1450 in chips)
Seat 4: Bbettoine (3670 in chips)
Seat 8: Koningtwee (2680 in chips)
Seat 9: pfsbulldawg (1370 in chips)
Seat 10: potrik (390 in chips)
dominicjul: posts the ante 30
jayj334: posts the ante 30
Bbettoine: posts the ante 30
Koningtwee: posts the ante 30
pfsbulldawg: posts the ante 30
potrik: posts the ante 30
dominicjul: posts small blind 150
jayj334: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pfsbulldawg [Ks Kd]
Bbettoine: raises 600 to 900
Koningtwee: folds
pfsbulldawg: raises 440 to 1340 and is all-in
potrik: folds
dominicjul: folds
jayj334: folds
Bbettoine: calls 440
*** FLOP *** [Ah 3c Ac]
*** TURN *** [Ah 3c Ac] [Jd]
*** RIVER *** [Ah 3c Ac Jd] [Qd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Bbettoine: shows [4s As] (three of a kind, Aces)
pfsbulldawg: shows [Ks Kd] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
Bbettoine collected 3310 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3310 | Rake 0
Board [Ah 3c Ac Jd Qd]
Seat 2: dominicjul (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: jayj334 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Bbettoine showed [4s As] and won (3310) with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 8: Koningtwee folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: pfsbulldawg showed [Ks Kd] and lost with two pair, Aces and Kings
Seat 10: potrik (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

yeah, yeah, use the converter. i know. but, this should be easy enough to see.

fold or push? whatchyallthink?

easy shove

yea definitely push

Posting the raw HH is OK, but you need to edit out the result please. I would defo push this.

I'd fold. Even if the short stack doubles up, he'll still have less chips than you. With the antes too, he pretty much has to double up twice in the next few hands to cause you a problem. Also, jayj334 will have less chips than yourself after he posts the blinds.

Originally Posted by Rage2100

I'd fold. Even if the short stack doubles up, he'll still have less chips than you. With the antes too, he pretty much has to double up twice in the next few hands to cause you a problem. Also, jayj334 will have less chips than yourself after he posts the blinds.

this is exactly what i was thinking. i pushed because i dont have enough discipline to fold KK when i "sort of need chips, too." if i have 3k+ chips, i drop AA in this spot, unless its the shorty that pushes first.

the way i look at it, i have about an 83% chance at the money. why push KK when any Ahi hand can spike about 1 in 6 times (16%) and screw me completely out? i see this happen all the time where the 3rd stack goes up against the 2nd stack foolishly and lets some dude with 400 chips make the money......just stupid.

my villains' calling ranges are MUCH wider than mine, so i dont see it being worth the risk when up against the bubble. just wanted some confirmation, i guess.

but, if anyone can prove, mathematically, just how close it is, i would be very interested in seeing that. i have no clue how to perform that calculation.

i mean i know where you are coming from but you said 1 and 6 tiems yourself, if you make that play in 6 DoN's and you only miss one of them because you got screwed postflop then you still win 5 which is over 80 %, i mean i am assuming that you make it to the bubble in all 6 lol but idk i still feel like calling here is a must

chip EV dictates that this is an ez shove, ez game. The perverse tourny format makes it a bit closer but I would shove or else not play these because I love shoving KK!

Originally Posted by Chopper

i think this goes either way, but i really thought hard about folding it. villain was 60/20. but, i am more concerned about the btn being so short. surely, doubling up puts me on lockdown, but i am wondering if it's even worth the risk?

PokerStars Game #22038927737: Tournament #120509277, $5.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2008/11/14 16:27:40 ET
Table '120509277 1' 10-max Seat #10 is the button
Seat 2: dominicjul (5440 in chips)
Seat 3: jayj334 (1450 in chips)
Seat 4: Bbettoine (3670 in chips)
Seat 8: Koningtwee (2680 in chips)
Seat 9: pfsbulldawg (1370 in chips)
Seat 10: potrik (390 in chips)
dominicjul: posts the ante 30
jayj334: posts the ante 30
Bbettoine: posts the ante 30
Koningtwee: posts the ante 30
pfsbulldawg: posts the ante 30
potrik: posts the ante 30
dominicjul: posts small blind 150
jayj334: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pfsbulldawg [Ks Kd]
Bbettoine: raises 600 to 900
Koningtwee: folds
pfsbulldawg: raises 440 to 1340 and is all-in
potrik: folds
dominicjul: folds
jayj334: folds
Bbettoine: calls 440
*** FLOP *** [Kh 3c Kc]
*** TURN *** [Kh 3c Kc] [Jd]
*** RIVER *** [Kh 3c Kc Jd] [Qd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Bbettoine: shows [4s As] (ba-junky)
pfsbulldawg: shows [Ks Kd] (quads, son! ez game)
pfsbulldawg collected 3310 from pot


fold or push? whatchyallthink?

Answer honestly! Do you make the above post if history were a little different?

I just ran this in SNGWIZ. It says you should fold every hand here, even AA.

forum seems pretty obsolete in light of SNGWIZ

I'm not sure I could bring myself to fold AA.

answer honestly? yes, i still post the same HH because i am looking for spots where we think its "LDO SHOVE HERE YOU NIT" when it really isnt correct. i thought it was incorrect to shove when i clicked all in. and, i only did so because i held KK. AA/KK are the only hands i would consider playing here.

here was my opening statement...

i think this goes either way, but i really thought hard about folding it.

i am trying to figure out if it is correct or incorrect KNOWING his calling range is wider than my pushing range, and knowing there is a chance i foob myself right out of the tourney since villain has me covered (if the shorty pushed first, i call instantly). specific results mean squat....other than to prove that i cost myself the tourney by NOT folding when i should have.

i dont think you leave anything to "luck" when you get this close to a cash. this is DoN-bubble specific, however. there is NO debate whatsoever if we are in a standard SNG.

if i were the shortest, this is a no brainer. if i were deeper, this is a no brainer.

ya, I agree with rilla

perv tourney format makes it an ez fold

Being a double or nothing SnG with a stack that short you can fold here. But only because all spots pay the same.

In any other format you lick your lips and shove. (OBV)

Its the same theory as as satellite, you would never risk winning a seat if you can fold ITM.

Every time I see these sort of DoN hands it just makes me not want to play them. I mean, where's the fun?

probably in shoving with 56s vrs other big stacks!

Originally Posted by kevster

Every time I see these sort of DoN hands it just makes me not want to play them. I mean, where's the fun?

I tend to agree. These survivalaments really are an exercise in 'waiting it out'.

*yawn*

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

probably in shoving with 56s vrs other big stacks!

only works against players who are highly ICM aware

Originally Posted by d0zer

Originally Posted by kevster

Every time I see these sort of DoN hands it just makes me not want to play them. I mean, where's the fun?

I tend to agree. These survivalaments really are an exercise in 'waiting it out'.

*yawn*

i wont lie, these are NOT fun. not at all. i would rather play full ring O8 for 2 and 4 pennies with YOUR dicks than play these.

but, when trying to pull a quick grand off the roll, without damaging it, for end of year tax purposes.....sometimes you cant be choosy in what you want to play. you just play the lowest variance, easiest money games you can find.

and, these definitely qualify in that respect.

Originally Posted by Chopper

i wont lie, these are NOT fun. not at all. i would rather play full ring O8 for 2 and 4 pennies with YOUR dicks than play these.

but, when trying to pull a quick grand off the roll, without damaging it, for end of year tax purposes.....sometimes you cant be choosy in what you want to play. you just play the lowest variance, easiest money games you can find.

and, these definitely qualify in that respect.

Agreed. Although I enjoy these because I feel they often take a more logical approach than normal SnG's. Sometimes I feel the standard push/fold end-game in normal SnGs is a bit boring (even though it's probably one of the stronger points in my game). DoN's also help me control tilt because I place more often, plus I can can 9 tables these instead of 4-tabling standard SnG's. All-in-all they are more profitable for my game, but this may not be neccessarily true for everyone.

Originally Posted by Chopper

but, when trying to pull a quick grand off the roll, without damaging it, for end of year tax purposes.....

Or live in the UK and be exempt from tax on gambling/gaming profits

seems like kk could definitely be a fold here but i dont see how folding AA could possibly be correct with these numbers. rage can you show some math?

Originally Posted by nutsinho

seems like kk could definitely be a fold here but i dont see how folding AA could possibly be correct with these numbers. rage can you show some math?

I didn't work this out manually, I just put it into SNGWIZ. I gave the UTG raiser a range of 20% (33+,A4+,A2s+,KQ,KTs+), but widening or narrowing this range makes no difference to the result it gives of folding every hand in this spot. The Button range is set to 50% (22+,A2+,K2+,Q5+,Q2s+,J8+,J5s+,T9,T7s+,98s), and the SB and BB ranges are set to 3% (JJ+,AK). Again, widening or narrowing these ranges makes no difference.

I have also tried changing the different combinations of ranges depending on what each player does, e.g. Hero folds, SB calls, or Hero pushes, Button calls, etc. The only time it changes to make AA a push is if you can almost guarantee that Button will call if Hero pushes, which you obviously can't do.

I must admit, folding AA here seems strange to me too.

i like the analysis. it looks, though, like (in this situation) we only play AA...and that is a maybe.

here the shorty was to my left. but, if the shorty is to my right, and pushes in front of me, i gladly call him off with KK or AA. is there a way to show that?

Originally Posted by Chopper

again, the shorty is to my right, and pushes in front of me, i gladly call him off with KK or AA.

is there a way to show that?

Yes, there certainly is. I've shown two situations below.


Situation 1: UTG raises and shorty calls. Here you can push with 88+,AK,AQs+.



Situation 2: UTG folds and shorty pushes. Here you can push with TT+,AK,AQs+.

wow. i thought it would be wrong to call in situation 2 w/ AK/AQ. i dont like calling AI's with unmade hands. i like pushing with them, but not calling.

thanks for the info.

i am also seeing a ton of 2p2'rs claiming 65%-70%. granted, that was last month.

what do we feel is "sustainable?" i am just eeking over 60% ITM right now, and wondered how high it can go. seems as if 65% is pretty unsustainable, but maybe i suck. lol.

Originally Posted by Chopper

i dont like calling AI's with unmade hands. .

you are not thinking about all in confrontations correctly.

by all means enlighten me a bit. dont just give me the answer, but can you give me a thing or two to think about?

is it strictly equity based? or domination?

equity based through and through