Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,291,000 Posts!
Poker ForumTournament Poker

The A, the K, and arguments for not getting involved

Results 1 to 12 of 12
  1. #1
    Jack Sawyer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    7,667
    Location
    Jack-high straight flush motherfucker

    Default The A, the K, and arguments for not getting involved

    Villain is one of the better regs at this level, seems to be on and playing just about all the time. Very tight and very aggressive, and gets into shove/fold mode at exactly this size of blinds.

    This is the hand in question:


    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 16 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



    Button (t1275)
    SB (t1345)
    Jizzy Sawya (BB) (t4845)
    UTG (t1605)
    MP1 (t1375)
    MP2 (t1910)
    CO (t1145)

    Jizzy Sawya's M: 21.53

    Preflop: Jizzy Sawya is BB with ,
    1 fold, MP1 bets t1375 (All-In), 4 folds, Hero (t0) ?


    As you can see, I'm large and in charge. Fold/call and more importantly, why? I don't think it's as obvious/easy as it seems.

    In this stage I should be the thief rather than the cop, right?
    Last edited by Jack Sawyer; 07-09-2010 at 07:41 AM.
    My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...


    Cogito ergo sum

    VHS is like a book? and a book is like a stack of kindles.
    Hey, I'm in a movie!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYdwe3ArFWA
  2. #2
    Once you give him a shoving range which I would guess is prob something like 66+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo and stove it you can figure you're about 54% vs his range with AKo/s

    Even if you tighten that range up a a bit to say 88+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+ you still have 50% equity.

    Your pot odds are 2825:1225 which means you need only 43% equity vs that range for the call to be profitable, and you clearly have the needed equity

    Now yes you should be more inclined to steal/put pressure on your opponents when you have a large chiplead due to ICM, but this is a clear call not only due to our equity vs his range and the pot odds we are receiving, but also b/c the future EV of us folding and using our chipstack to put pressure on opponents is not greater than the outcome of this hand if we call b/c if we win, we have a huge stack which we can use to our advantage, and if we lose we are still clearly in the game.


    Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
  3. #3
    fulksy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    1,412
    Location
    Edmonton,Canada
    its defiantly not a clear call, with using a standardish range for a tight winning reg. i'm actually leaning towards folding.

    taking ICM into account i think you need 54.6% equity to call so if his range is 88+, AQs+ AQo+ you have a little under 52% equity, so that's a fold.

    If his range is more like 88+ ATs+ KQs+ AJo+. its pretty close. it really depends on his shoving range.

    i dont have wiz but if hes a winning reg. maybe look at what range he should be shoving from in that position to have + EV. i assume its pretty tight so i'm gonna go with a fold here, but it could be close.
    Last edited by fulksy; 07-10-2010 at 02:27 PM.
  4. #4
    fulksy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    1,412
    Location
    Edmonton,Canada
    also what ICM doesn't take into account is the possibility to knock out a solid player with good push/fold game which might add some +EV into a call, so i guess its gotta be a pretty close decision. taking that into account i might call since you with a big stack should have a pretty big edge on the bubble.
  5. #5
    According to Wiz this is a profitable call if the villain is shoving 99+, AQ+ or wider. As there is some chance he would raise, rather than shove, QQ+, this is an easy call imo.

    Furthermore, if you call and lose, you will still have twice as many chips than most on the table.
    Last edited by Duffryn; 07-10-2010 at 03:00 PM.
  6. #6
    In the villain's position I'd be shoving at least 77+, AJ+ and probably a touch wider. It's close for sure, but the size of your stack and his range makes this a call for me.

    Edit: Scream at screen when he pitches up with AA or KK
    Last edited by Nakamura; 07-10-2010 at 05:55 PM.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    In the villain's position I'd be shoving at least 77+, AJ+ and probably a touch wider. It's close for sure, but the size of your stack and his range makes this a call for me.

    Edit: Scream at screen when he pitches up with AA or KK
    Agree with the range. Haven't run it in Wiz, but I trust your calcs, so this would be a call for me. Also, with 7 players left I don't think there's quite enough metagame value to make up the expected value loss if we fold this. After all, if we call and win, we will have an even more commanding chip lead
  8. #8
    Jack Sawyer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    7,667
    Location
    Jack-high straight flush motherfucker
    Tnx for the responses guys.
    My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...


    Cogito ergo sum

    VHS is like a book? and a book is like a stack of kindles.
    Hey, I'm in a movie!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYdwe3ArFWA
  9. #9
    fulksy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    1,412
    Location
    Edmonton,Canada
    taipan, i guess i must of messed up on the ICM calcs. i have that you need to have 54.6 % equity to make this a call. but against your range of 77+ AJ+ your ~51% at if we went wider say AJo+ A10s+ 66+ KQs, were still less then 53%. for it to be >54.6% you would need to add say KJ, but i doubt he's shoving that wide.

    maybe you could let me know if i have the wrong equity% needed. or are you just making the call on the basis that you have a chance to knock out a strong player and adding a little EV based on that.
  10. #10
    Let me run the ICM calcs myself and see what's going on.
  11. #11
    fulksy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    1,412
    Location
    Edmonton,Canada
    actually i'm pretty sure i messed up i think u only need 49.15% and only if his range is ~AQ+ 88+ is this a fold and obv. he's shoving wider then this, sorry.
  12. #12
    According to SNGWIZ if villain shoves range 77+, AJ+, ATs+ (which most regs will shove with here), then Hero can call with TT+, AK, AQs. Calling with AKo increases our equity by 0.67%, making it a +EV call.

    Villain would need to shove tighter than TT+, AQ+, AQs+ for this not to be a call, which happens exactly never.



    ^^^^ Click for a bigger image.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •