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JJ, Kxx flop, opp puts me AI ($27)

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  1. 04-26-2011 07:47 AM #1
    taipan168
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    Default JJ, Kxx flop, opp puts me AI ($27)

    Opp's stats were 24/12/4.5 over 33 hands. Outrageous bluff or a slowplay or something that has me licked?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP (t1850)
    CO (t2630)
    Hero (Button) (t2000)
    SB (t4220)
    BB (t1180)
    UTG (t1620)

    Hero's M: 8.89

    Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
    3 folds, Hero bets t400, SB calls t325, 1 fold

    Flop: (t950) K, 4, 4 (2 players)
    SB bets t2400, Hero ????
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  2. 04-26-2011 09:33 AM #2
    dneureiter
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    Seems like people always have it in these spots. Especially on this extra dry board. Take a note and fold.

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  3. 04-26-2011 09:37 PM #3
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    KoRnholio
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    His agg factor makes me want to call. Is he really open shoving a king here into us?
    Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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  4. 04-27-2011 12:43 AM #4
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    baudib
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    Personally, I never believe anyone has a king. Sometimes I'm wrong about that.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
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  5. 04-27-2011 02:30 AM #5
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    derekeverett
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    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    Personally, I never believe anyone has a king. Sometimes I'm wrong about that.
    This is my favorite quote today for sure.
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  6. 04-27-2011 04:51 AM #6
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    Nakamura
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    He might be leveling you, but I don't see why he would over-bet a K like this. It looks more like a bet he might make with hand that doesn't want a call like 88 or 77. Given his aggression, he's probably shoveling those PF though.

    You probably need to be about 60-65% to make the call here, but I think you're good here often enough to call.
    Last edited by Nakamura; 04-27-2011 at 04:54 AM.
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  7. 04-28-2011 11:02 AM #7
    dneureiter
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    He might be leveling you, but I don't see why he would over-bet a K like this. It looks more like a bet he might make with hand that doesn't want a call like 88 or 77. Given his aggression, he's probably shoveling those PF though.

    You probably need to be about 60-65% to make the call here, but I think you're good here often enough to call.
    Where does this figure come from? Chip-wise we need something like 40% prolly. 1600/4150 = 38%. I agree a call can be close but usually see that people have it in this spots. Also you guys are reading way too much into aggression factor over a 35 hand sample which is only 10 hands postflop. If you have seen him do something specific in those 35 hands that makes you think he is bluff happy then that is different.

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  8. 04-28-2011 01:22 PM #8
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    Nakamura
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    Quote Originally Posted by dneureiter View Post
    Where does this figure come from? Chip-wise we need something like 40% prolly. 1600/4150 = 38%.
    EQ_fold = 13.3% or 1600 chips
    EQ_win = 26.8% or 4150 chips
    EQ_lose = 0% or 0 chips

    P_win > ( EQ_fold – EQ_lose ) / (EQ_win – EQ_lose)
    P_win > ( 13.3% - 0% ) / ( 26.8% - 0% )
    P_win > 49.6%
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