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JJ facing 3bet

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  1. #1
    Luco's Avatar
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    Default JJ facing 3bet

    First 3bet from the other bigstack. Given the sizing I weight him toward AK more than AA/KK... call?

    888 Poker - $1.80+$0.20|150/300 Ante 40 NL - Holdem - 9 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    Hero (UTG+1): 16,594
    MP: 17,312 (VPIP: 10.34, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
    MP+1: 5,251 (VPIP: 16.00, PFR: 4.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
    MP+2: 15,855 (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
    CO: 4,332 (VPIP: 8.00, PFR: 4.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
    BTN: 6,406 (VPIP: 41.67, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 25)
    SB: 3,080 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
    BB: 5,150 (VPIP: 55.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 20)
    UTG: 3,667 (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)

    9 players post ante of 40, SB posts SB 150, BB posts BB 300

    Pre Flop: (pot: 810) Hero has J J

    fold, Hero raises to 630, MP raises to 2,700, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero???
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  2. #2
    I think it's a pretty easy fold.

    Calling is just playing a pretty weak hand (given ranges) OOP & the only flops. It's essentially set mining imo.

    What hands do you expect him to be raising here? KK+ & AK(o/s?) ? I can't see it being profitable.
    Last edited by Savy; 04-02-2016 at 04:17 PM.
  3. #3
    Eric's Avatar
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    How far into the tournament are we at this point? How many other tables are there? How far from the money are we?
  4. #4
    Luco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    How far into the tournament are we at this point? How many other tables are there? How far from the money are we?
    It's far from the money, just over an hour in. About 350 people left.
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  5. #5
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Given the sizing I weight him toward AK more than AA/KK...
    I don't see how we can make this determination considering this is his first 3bet. Taking into account he has opened once in 29 hands, and limped or flat called a further three times, I think it's fair to say his 3b range is very tight. Granted, sample size is poor, but still, I'd like to see more from him before I'll assume he's making it different sizes with different hands. For now, I'm giving him at least QQ as well as AK, which is enough for me to fold, even without KK/AA.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #6
    Eric's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luco View Post
    It's far from the money, just over an hour in. About 350 people left.
    If it's closer to the money then I think it is almost always a fold for me - no need for the 2 biggest stacks at the table to build a big pot against each other. Even far from the money I think it can be a pretty easy fold like ImSavy said.
  7. #7
    chardrian's Avatar
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    You guys r all nits which is ok. But I agree with a heavily weighted AK range and a call.
  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by chardrian View Post
    You guys r all nits which is ok. But I agree with a heavily weighted AK range and a call.
    This guy is a nit, therefore I'm a nit vs him when he 3bets.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 04-05-2016 at 10:31 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #9
    chardrian's Avatar
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    He is a nit over a sample size of a whopping 29 hands. We also don't know how active hero has been. And we just got JJ - the 4th best hand that you can get. Given MPs large raise (which might just be him mashing the bet pot button - I don't know if this site has that or now) - I think you can heavily discount AA and likely KK from his range. So while JJ doesn't fair super well against a tight range of QQ/AK and I am therefore fine with just folding, there is also definitely an argument to call and see how the hand develops.
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  10. #10
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Fair point on the sample size. It's a "big" enough sample size to know he's not loose as a goose, but it's three orbits and I've folded three orbits solid plenty of times while not playing particularly tight.

    I wouldn't say JJ is the fourth best hand we're getting dealt though. I'd say in this spot there's not much between QQ and AKs, while JJ pars with AKo. In most cases, I'd rather be stacking AK than JJ pre flop. In some cases, I prefer AKs to QQ.

    As for discounting AA/KK, I don't agree, but if I did, then obviously I'm not folding JJ. I think the problem of sample size means we know nothing about if he overraises KK+ against a table full of short stacks. He gives like 80% of the table no option but to shove if they wish to continue. I can also maybe see him perhaps just outright shoving AK because he can expect loose calls from the shorties, while he faces no more awkward decisions. So there's an argument for taking AK out of his range too, which then leans us more to folding once more.

    I think continuing here is a dangerous path that results in tears more often than not.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  11. #11
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    Thanks for all the responses guys. For the curious, here's how it played out:

    Pre Flop: (pot: 810) Hero has J J

    fold, Hero raises to 630, MP raises to 2,700, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2,070

    Flop: (6,210, 2 players) Q 3 8
    Hero checks, MP checks

    Turn: (6,210, 2 players) A
    Hero pukes a little / checks, MP bets 3,105, hero folds

    I ended up running deep in this one but lost a flip with AK shortly before the FT
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  12. #12
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    A couple arguments for both folding and calling, now that you decide to call and see a flop what goes through your mind? with you checking hear it lets his pre-flop raise play right into his hands, he now gets to check the flop and see the turn. he is in control and in position.
    On the flop what are you behind?? AA/KK

    I think a donk lead hear is good, you raised pre so you show strength, a raise fold is not a bad play once we have seen the flop.
    I think if you call pre flop you need to be comfortable playing the flop, otherwise fold pre and move onto the next hand.
    the fold on the turn is a correct play.
  13. #13
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    I think leading this flop is crazy. If we bet flop, he folds the part of the range that we want him to continue with, while continuing with the part that crushes us.

    We call the 3bet pre because his sizing means we weight his range more towards AK than KK+... I'm fine with this line of thought. If we have him on AK exactly, then we can play the hand perfectly. What is the perfect play on this flop against AK? It depends if he cbets ace high more often than he hits an A or K on turn, which isn't often. 10%? He's cbetting AK more often than 10%. When he checks in position, I'm making a note for future reference. But right now, at the point of decision, there's little reason for us to think he checks back AK. So I see no justification in betting, especially given that he doesn't have AK exactly, he also has QQ+.

    After calling pre, I'm c/c flop, and I'm happy to call at least one bet post flop, possibly two, but definitely not three, where there's no A or K. When those cards fall, we give up.

    Luco played the hand fine post flop imo, the only question is whether to call or fold pre.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 04-11-2016 at 01:53 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  14. #14
    Luco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I think leading this flop is crazy. If we bet flop, he folds the part of the range that we want him to continue with, while continuing with the part that crushes us.

    We call the 3bet pre because his sizing means we weight his range more towards AK than KK+... I'm fine with this line of thought. If we have him on AK exactly, then we can play the hand perfectly. What is the perfect play on this flop against AK? It depends if he cbets ace high more often than he hits an A or K on turn, which isn't often. 10%? He's cbetting AK more often than 10%. When he checks in position, I'm making a note for future reference. But right now, at the point of decision, there's little reason for us to think he checks back AK. So I see no justification in betting, especially given that he doesn't have AK exactly, he also has QQ+.

    After calling pre, I'm c/c flop, and I'm happy to call at least one bet post flop, possibly two, but definitely not three, where there's no A or K. When those cards fall, we give up.

    Luco played the hand fine post flop imo, the only question is whether to call or fold pre.
    I agree with all of this. If we lead flop all worse hands fold and better hands continue, and I was definitely expecting a cbet on the flop.
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  15. #15
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Yes and yes. Ong's analysis is spot on. A donkbet on this flop is results oriented.
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