ICM question..

Single table SNG 1500 starting stack super turbo
100/200 blinds no antes
UTG $1215 folds
MP $1650 folds
BTN $1765 folds
SB $7400 shoves
Hero BB $1270 holds

villain has been shoving atleast twice per orbit, gotten lucky a few times, woke up with a few hands, I think its safe to say with my stack size hes pushing close to 80% here. maybe more, but 80% surely.

my question is even though im ahead of his range, 58%>41% , how can i calculate if im ICM correct?
i have setup the ICM calc on chillen411 and its as follows

UTG $1215 (.129)
MP $1650 (.167)
BTN $1765 (.176)
SB $7400 (.384)
Hero BB $1270 (.143)

so if SB shoves, theres 3 out comes,

i fold (-0.08) *corrected
UTG $1215 (.130)
MP $1650 (.168)
BTN $1765 (.177)
SB $7400 (.388)
Hero BB $1270 (.135)

i call and win (+0.09)
UTG $1215 (.114)
MP $1650 (.150)
BTN $1765 (.159)
SB $6030 (.343)
Hero BB $2940 (.233)

i call and lose (0)
UTG $1215 (.161)
MP $1650 (.204)
BTN $1765 (.213)
SB $9070 (.421)
Hero BB $0(.0)

so 58% of the time i win +0.09
41% of the time i lose -0.143
EV= - 0.64??

some one help me out please. lol

update**

I did some more research and found that calling and losing doesn't equal (-0.143) it actually equal 0.

so if I have 58% vs villians range and my prize pool equity if I win is .233 then
(.58 * .233) + (.41 * 0) = .13514

if we fold our equity will drop to .135

comparing:
folding = .135
calling = .135

EV neutral then??

lets say he shoves 100% instead.
(.60 * .233) + (.40 * 0) = .139

comparing:
folding = .135
calling = .139

that's sick that he can shove 20% more hands and still put us in a bad spot.

shit can someone move this to tourneys..sorry guys

I'm not an SNG player but a calculator should be able to figure this out. Provided that you put in the data correctly, it looks like you have your answer.

One thing that seems wrong is that your fold outcome needs to account for the fact that you'll be shorter by 200, thus folding is minus $ev by a certain significantly large amount, and calling is better only if it improves on that EV, even if its still negative.

Originally Posted by acg123

shit can someone move this to tourneys..sorry guys

Sure thing, acg. The thread has been moved here to the Tournament Poker forum.

-David

Originally Posted by Renton

I'm not an SNG player but a calculator should be able to figure this out. Provided that you put in the data correctly, it looks like you have your answer.

One thing that seems wrong is that your fold outcome needs to account for the fact that you'll be shorter by 200, thus folding is minus $ev by a certain significantly large amount, and calling is better only if it improves on that EV, even if its still negative.

Ill edit when i get home, i forgot to change the SB stack but the % is correct. My stack size is minus 1 BB because my BB was posted when the decision so technically that BB isnt part of my stack anymore.

Is my math right? Not the ICM numbers, i mean once i have the ICM numbers for each action how do i determine which is most profitable?

Originally Posted by dhubermex

Sure thing, acg. The thread has been moved here to the Tournament Poker forum.

-David

Ty sir

Oh so the 1270 is already with your 200 posted then.

icmizer says A5s is an easy call even if he's only shoving 50%

its easier if you post updates in the thread rather than the first post else the context goes out of other peoples posts , or at least post to say that you have updated the original post .

Originally Posted by Renton

icmizer says A5s is an easy call even if he's only shoving 50%

good to know, reason I was asking is I review all my bubble hands after a session. i play on bovada so theres no stats, or handhistories so its difficult for me to use a ICM program. i end up having to do the math and it sucks..lol

Originally Posted by Keith

its easier if you post updates in the thread rather than the first post else the context goes out of other peoples posts , or at least post to say that you have updated the original post .

point taken..i thought about it after i updated ..