Hand Analysis

Hey guys, any comments or advice about the right play in this situation would be welcomed.

Mid level of a $6 STSng at party. BB is LAGG (%vpip 50 TO 20.9.) I have been playing tight up to this point (%vpip 15.7.)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t1570)
SB (t5145)
BB (t5070)
UTG (t1828)
Hero (t2995)
CO (t3392)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9, 9.
1 fold, Hero raises to t300, 3 folds, BB calls t200.

Flop: (t650) 6, 7, Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t650, BB calls t650.

Every flop that LAGG hit, he bet (2nd pair, TPWK, and so on). I had been watching and taking notes throughout the tourney. I interpreted the check as a missed flop or a slow play. If he re-raised I planned to drop the hand.

Turn: (t1950) 8 (2 players)
BB bets t100

Now I'm confused. This looks to me like: (A) A luring bet (B) Post Oak Bluff. I didn't think that at a $6 SnG many of the players would be familiar with these concepts, but he had been playing very well after the flop throughout the tourney.

What do you guys think?

Welcome to FTR!

Raise a little less PF, 250-275 should do it. Keeps the pot smaller on subsequent streets.

As played, don't bet so much on the flop, 350-400 is plenty. On the turn, I would just flat call his donkminbet and see what happens on the river.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by F4iguy

I didn't think that at a $6 SnG many of the players would be familiar with these concepts, but he had been playing very well after the flop throughout the tourney.

Nobody who plays well after the flop bets 100 into a 1970 pot. Nobody!

Oh and BTW, don't play $6 tourneys at PP. Play somewhere where the rake is 50c rather than $1 (PS, UB, FT, etc).

First off, players at $6 SnGs are not going to post-oak bluff. Especially not one with 50% vpip. If he bets every flop he hits, his check/call looks like a draw (at 50% vpip, he's probably too loose to ever lay down 8+ outs on the flop), 45 or 89 are the only real draws out.

The 8 is a bad card and a good card at the same time because it completes 45's draw, but it also gives you and OESD where you have a chance to destack him later if he has a set or lower straight. Getting over 20:1, I call even if it means letting him have a cheap card if he is still drawing. Go for a cheap showdown on the river.

Bet less on the flop, btw. If you don't think he has much or he is slowplaying, why bet a full pot? If he doesn't have anything, he will still fold, but if he is slowplaying you're trapped for a couple hundred more (maybe even more if you make a worse call because of pot odds/being pot committed). If you bet 350, he will fold with nothing and trap you for less if he is slowplaying a set/2 pair.

I don't buy it. I think he's got something like A9 here.

Unless you have a read that he makes donk bets after making his hand, I'd push over this. The pot is too big to either let go or let him draw cheaply. All I can think is that the eight gave him some outs and he wants to slow you down because he doesn't want to call off another big bet.

If he has some big made hand like a straight or two pair on the turn, I think he check-raises.

push

Thanks for the comments guys! When he made the donkminibet, I came back over the top AI and he laid it down, which might not have been the best idea in the world, but it worked.

Yeah, he has a 5 or a 9, or even a 10 or a jack. Pushing looks good to me.