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  1. #1

    Default Fold?

    The guy has nit stats. I don't believe that I can call for set value. Is this a fold? Can I call not just for set value but also because 99 can make more hands than just a set? I believe that it will be hard to play post flop when oop and if others call and the pot gets big.

    PokerStars Game #34789694694: Tournament #208010397, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2009/11/01 13:52:28 ET
    Table '208010397 115' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
    Seat 1: NoA.hpx (6134 in chips)
    Seat 2: Fribbe85 (3200 in chips)
    Seat 3: Sandi1969 (6380 in chips)
    Seat 4: Benyfox (11472 in chips)
    Seat 5: Sprayed (10060 in chips)
    Seat 6: mavs42 (5827 in chips)
    Seat 7: MariahC (2367 in chips)
    Seat 8: udunwantnun (1940 in chips)
    Seat 9: s_t_bux_a_x (8690 in chips)
    NoA.hpx: posts the ante 25
    Fribbe85: posts the ante 25
    Sandi1969: posts the ante 25
    Benyfox: posts the ante 25
    Sprayed: posts the ante 25
    mavs42: posts the ante 25
    MariahC: posts the ante 25
    udunwantnun: posts the ante 25
    s_t_bux_a_x: posts the ante 25
    NoA.hpx: posts small blind 125
    Fribbe85: posts big blind 250
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Sprayed [9c 9h]
    Sandi1969: folds
    Benyfox: raises 500 to 750
    Sprayed:
  2. #2
    I had intended to study situations like these -- calling with midpairs in EP after a raise -- and my laptop died, with over 100k hands lost.

    It feels uber-nitty but I would not be surprised if this is an unprofitable situation. A lot depends on how squeezy the table is behind you (if the shorties are gambling it up, it could be a fold) and how this guy plays OOP postflop.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  3. #3
    I would fold, set odds aren't there and you still have 6 others behind you.
  4. #4
    fjuanl:
    don't you think the likelihood of villain holding a monster here gives us set odds? i want to fold based on possible action behind us but I think it is close with a chance to get a huge stack against the chip leader.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  5. #5
    I'm being a little results because I folded and the board was x99 and like 2 others called pre. I would def call with Ts in this spot. I think that 9s are a little close.
  6. #6
    I'd call

    if you end up HU you can play your hand really easy vs the nit and should win a decent amount of non set flops.

    if lots of people call I'm sure you'll make money just on sets.
  7. #7
    I agree with drmc on this one and why don't you have set odds?
  8. #8
    Sprayed is just short of having 15x the raise amount and if he flats (generally a standard cutoff for set-mining) theres a chance one of the 6 people left will wake up with QQ+ AK and reraise. I don't think you could call 22-66, but 99 is probably ok at second glance since its a decently high pair

    My plan (maybe flawed?) would be:

    In multiway pots:
    - fold an overpair if the nit fires a decent cbet

    In heads up pots:
    - call flop with overpair or on flops like J27, fold to turn bets
    - check it down if the nit gives up on the turn (<<thoughts?)
  9. #9
    fjuanl, as I alluded to, I think a nit has an overpair here often enough that we have set odds more often than against normal people.

    I can see peeling with some kind of backdoor equity but I think I'd fold on a T22 flop when he fires out 2/3 pot.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.

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