Can you fold here?

This was actually a hand that my wife played so i don't have hand history.
Full Tilt $24+2 90 person KO 24 people left. top 9 ITM.

She was around 6th or 8th overall with about 18K chips. Blinds were about 300/600. She was in the big blind

Villian is UTG+1 and is the chip leader with about 24K limps in. Folded to big blind(hero) who is dealt J7 and she checks.

Flop is 7J2 with 2 diamonds. Hero has top two pair but no diamonds.

She bets pot plus so i think it was around 2000-2500.

villian comes over the top all-in.

possible set, most likely flush draw, OR bully attempt but no reads.

1. Can she fold
2. Is there a bet sizing issue after the flop
3. other thoughts?
THANKS

Well, given preflop we can definitely put 22 and 77 in villain's range

quick stove

Very wide range

Code:

  20,790  games     0.005 secs     4,158,000  games/sec

Board: Jd 7d 2h
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     61.477%      61.38%     00.10%              12761            20.00   { Jh7s }
Hand 1:     38.523%      38.43%     00.10%               7989            20.00   { 77, 22, AJs, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, AJo }


---

More likely range

Code:

  11,880  games     0.005 secs     2,376,000  games/sec

Board: Jd 7d 2h
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     60.362%      60.19%     00.17%               7151            20.00   { Jh7s }
Hand 1:     39.638%      39.47%     00.17%               4689            20.00   { 77, 22, AJs, AJo }

And, you're crippled 85% v 15% against a set...


Meh there is just so much bad play in these tournaments I don't know how often I could find a fold here. This is basically a cooler if villain shows up with a set. Write it off and move on imo.

Never ever ever fold as played. It could easily be AJ, KJ, QQ-AA, diamonds. Flopping a set is pretty hard...especially when you have 2pair

She might want to consider check/raising the flop. Leading the flop is okay but potting it is unnecessary. If she pots it, most people are not going to get out of line or make loose calls. Besides the flush draw, the flop is pretty harmless and unlikely to improve villains hand.

pretty much fist-pump/get it in any way you can. I like a c/r personally but as played is fine imo. NH

p.s. ICM considerations don't really come into play, there's a huge way to go from top 9 out of 24 to actually making the money here.

Call. Flush draws,AJ,overpairs and who knows what else will call/push here. More times than not you will be good here.

All in. Playing for first. If you run into a set oh well. More likely 99+ or f/d

We have the 4th nuts, probable 2nd nuts. I am only really worried about 22 here, as JJ probably doesn't limp pre, and two 7's are already accounted for. That's somewhat of an over bet too, especially if villain is holding a set.

Verdict: Fold less than never.