calling math based donkament players

8 left at final table of major online tourney. Hero has KQo in CO and is 2nd shortest at the table with 475k. Everyone at the table is OK at poker and there is plenty of aggressive restealing going on. Blinds are 15/30k with 3k ante. Button and BB each have over 1.5 mil while SB is shortstacked with about 230k. Hero has reasonably tight image. What is the optimal play?

I actually think limping is not a bad option here. You cant really raise fold with 15BB profitably so limping and calling a raise or limp shoving arent terrible choices. Not to mention they probably will be concerned by a limp and may play you very carefully essentially giving you a chance to make what amounts to a postflop blind steal.

I move in, but I am land based.

EDIT - shove is profitable face up from the CO for 8.5 BBs, so for sure the move in is +EV, hard for me to believe raise/call is better unless you think they'll show up with Kx and Qx a lot and they will fold low PPs/ Axs either way.

With 8.5 bbs it's easy but idk with 15.5. Raise to ~75k and fold seems dirty but is shoving good here with almost 16 bbs?

raise/fold or open shove IMO, i'm closer to shoving tho.

face up it's profitable, meaning you could turn your hand over and move in (and opp only calls when ahead) and still show a profit. Sklansky has numbers in T&P for BvB - KQo is right around 30 BBs. you can more or less cut it in half for each player still left, so that gets us to 7-8 BBs. But again, that's if you always get called when you are behind. But are they really calling 15BBs with A6 or 22 here?

Raise folding is IMO worse than open folding unless opps are super tight, which OP specifically said they are not. I doubt you can find a reshove range where it will make sense to fold but you can run some ICM if you want. Raise/fold is a great line with 72.

Also, by shoving you can't be outplayed post flop which will happen pretty often on a short stack with KQ.

I like open shoving best; you might fold some low pairs and weak aces which would resteal if you raise/call (they also resteal with QJ etc but meh).

Raise/fold is obv the worst option.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

I like open shoving best; you might fold some low pairs and weak aces which would resteal if you raise/call (they also resteal with QJ etc but meh).

Raise/fold is obv the worst option.

this is what i said and some good (cash game) players i was with were all about the raise /fold here (raise/call vs shorty). I decided to consult the opinion of those who might actually know what they are talking about.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

I like open shoving best; you might fold some low pairs and weak aces which would resteal if you raise/call (they also resteal with QJ etc but meh).

Raise/fold is obv the worst option.

Man this advice shows why I suck at donkaments

i'm torn between shoving and folding. am i close-minded in feeling like shoving 15 bbs is spewy? the thing is, i see a lot of good players like jfish making plays like this these days, so i'm not so sure anymore. i feel more towards folding i guess, due to the fact i'm nitty and feel like that stack is perfect for resteals still.

Is bet/fold really the worst option? That's my favorite move!
If you have a reasonably tight image it's hard to get called with worse. a raise to 90k would probably take it, and if you get called it's not a bad hand to take to the flop. Even if you c-bet and it doesn't work out you still have more than 10M left.
If you move in you're really hoping for a fold, and you're just going to take down the blinds.
You have good fold-equity before the flop, on the flop, and if you hit it it's probably good.

Please don't limp...thats my only advice.

Originally Posted by dthorne04

i'm torn between shoving and folding. am i close-minded in feeling like shoving 15 bbs is spewy?

Do the math?

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Originally Posted by dthorne04

i'm torn between shoving and folding. am i close-minded in feeling like shoving 15 bbs is spewy?

Do the math?

i don't know where to begin here. :P

edit: i'm kind of buzzed and tired, would i start by assigning calling ranges to the players ahead of me, or where should/would i start johnny?

Shove if folded to, shove over the raise of a looser player, fold if a Tagg raises before you are to act.

I shove here. I think it's very relevant that this is the FT. As one of the shorties, I'm proclaiming "fuck survival; no screwing around with small bets - I'm taking down pots!"

With 25-100 players left, I become more okay with raise/fold, and with open folding (and would decide between the two based on reads and stacks of players still in).

with 8 remaining i wouldn't call it a donk-a-ment anymore

maybe not the right move but i would limp even if you think your image is tight, unless you are pretty sure the other players have you as tight and seen you play a dozen hands or so.

crap, i might even fold it...honest

leaning towards shove here but i dont think raising to 75K is such a bad move

Raise folding at 15BB is considered terrible by pretty much every top pro that I know. Especially with KQ in this spot. Someone tell me why limping so terrible here. If you limp and are raised you can definitly call and your opponent has no clue what to put you on. Often if you arre a very aggressive player they are very concerned that you limped a big hand and check and fold most flops. If you arent super agro when you raise call many times they will put you on a bad limp call with a pair and then when you do hit you get paid off. What's so bad about limping other than the fact that we're always told not to limp the button or always come in raising etc.????

The problem with limp-calling is that the opponent is going to shove most flops. If we whiff we get put in a bad spot because he could be bluffing with the best hand, but there's no way for him to fold it now.

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

The problem with limp-calling is that the opponent is going to shove most flops. If we whiff we get put in a bad spot because he could be bluffing with the best hand, but there's no way for him to fold it now.

What's so bad about him shoving most flop?
2/3rds of the time we dont pair and likely have to fold and lose a total of 6 BB's. 1/3rd of the time we call and make 9BB's. Looks like a net gain to me.

Additionally I disagree that he shoves most flops. He obv shoves some flops but if the flop comes low many times he doesnt and we steal the pot. Also we could flop a strong draw with overs and be in pretty decent shape to call an allin. Not a bad spot for what would essentially amount to a race anyway.

I suppose all I am saying is we should consider it. Obv if we do limp here at times we must also limp AA, KK here at times to so that we are not predicatable. I also think you underestimate the number of times people are freaked out by the limp and play you passively. We certainly have to assign a +EV value to the number of times you are easily able to limp then take the blinds on the flop and also the portion of the time where you arent raised and you outflop someone and can get it in ahead(obv that can to some degree be offset by the portion of the time you get outflop and catch a piece. But versus hands that check frm the blinds you outflop more than you are outflopped).