Bubble vs. the other bigstack [$11 9man SNG]

I kind of suck in this specific bubble situation, when I have a hand that has showdown value, but it's very risky to take it to showdown. WWYD? Assume generic reads, such as bigstack is a general luckbox, standard levels of aggression, and villain perceives hero as a respectable opponent.

Do we always shove prelfop? Should be shove flop as played? K/F flop?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



UTG (t5155)
Button (t2245)
Jizzy (SB) (t3610)
BB (t2490)

Jizzy's M: 16.04

Preflop: Jizzy is SB with ,
UTG bets t450, 1 fold, Jizzy calls t375, 1 fold

Flop: (t1050) , , (2 players)
Hero (t3160) ?

Personally I would just shove preflop and be done with it. You have a lot of fold equity considering stack sizes and he may well fold some hands against which you're flipping (AQ/KQ) or call with hands you dominate (88-TT?)

The problem with flat calling is that you just turned your hand into 22. Anyway, as played I would lead this flop for 650. The problem is if he shoves, you'll have no idea what to do.

how do you read that HH?

Originally Posted by Poker Orifice

how do you read that HH?

I don't really get your question, but this might be of help to you
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ly-178090.html

I would re raise preflop, I think you are well ahead of his range

I am betting this flop around 75% pot and calling a shove on the flop

I'd shove preflop. He can be probably "just" stealing blinds & I think he's not willing to call You with some kind of trash. When calling JJ OOP I'd be very scared of flopped overcards. If You flop for example Q36r - what would You do in this situation? C/f? Even if You lead say 2/3 pot, he can easily flat You with air & wait for Your action on turn. So my suggestion is shove preflop.

i would, personally, like to see what ICM says about this. we figure to be well ahead of his range, BUT he has us covered if we shove and he calls. do we want to busto right now or wait until we can pick on someone else? (obviously, understanding winning this hand is a major help to us.)

I don't see how we can do anything other than shove pre.

Originally Posted by Chopper

i would, personally, like to see what ICM says about this. we figure to be well ahead of his range, BUT he has us covered if we shove and he calls. do we want to busto right now or wait until we can pick on someone else? (obviously, understanding winning this hand is a major help to us.)

I ran this in SNG Wiz and assuming that CO open raises 25% of hands (22+, A2+, KTo+, K9s+, QTs+, which I would in his spot) and calls a shove over with 5% (TT+, AK) and BB calls a raise and a shove with JJ+ and AK then shoving this is +0.1% EV. Increase CO's open raise range to 30% and this becomes +0.4% EV.