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bubble situation with 99

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  1. #1

    Default bubble situation with 99

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 800/1600 Blinds 75 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (BB) (t11921)
    UTG (t5217)
    UTG+1 (t10035)
    MP1 (t10212)
    MP2 (t8290)
    MP3 (t5465)
    CO (t7945)
    Button (t6460)
    SB (t1955)

    Hero's M: 3.88

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
    5 folds, CO bets t7870 (All-In), Button calls t6385 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero?


    CO shoves this spot reasonably wide [Ax, K6+, any pp, Q7+, connectors down to 78s] and BU is a retard and will call like any pp or ace or k

    my first instinct is to call here because im getting like a billion to one and it looks like its +ev, however i am going to be very short stacked if i lose and have trouble cashing most likely

    is this a call or fold?
  2. #2
    Seems like an easy fold, your hand doesn't even have that good of equity versus the non overpair type hands these guys could have. This is a pure ICM calculation though, is this a 45 person tourney?

    I would imagine you would need quite a big hand to call here, QQ+ maybe even KK+


    Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
  3. #3
    Fold
  4. #4
    Fold pretty quickly. You have a comfortable stack, so why play a big pot with a middle pair in a situation where you have to beat both opponents to avoid losing over half of it?

    You're probably ahead against each of the ranges you've noted, but even if each one just has a single overcard, it's a coin flip uless they both have the same one. And they can have better. You're a dog vs three or four unmatched overs, and either or both can have a bigger pair.

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