AQs in BB facing shove

villain is running 21/19 over 30 hands
There are 15 players left in this 180-man turbo. He hasn't been shoving much at all... actually, this is the first shove of his I've seen.

I figure I'm in a flip a bunch here.... do we take it?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 2.2 Tournament, 1000/2000 Blinds 200 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t30088)
SB (t13375)
Hero (BB) (t28687)
UTG (t7869)
MP (t33074)
CO (t23152)

Hero's M: 6.83

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q
1 fold, MP bets t32874 (All-In), 3 folds Hero feels fucked and he doesn't know why.

I would fold given your read and that calling off your chips hoping to be flipping is not a good idea in this spot

I can't really speak for how people play at $2/180s...but I snap call. Most people are going to open normal amounts with good Ax and big pairs and jamming all the marginal hands that AQs crushes.

When did villain get to ~15BB's? Maybe he was at 20+ most of the time and now is into his shove/fold game. Have they shown down any hands at all?

Yeah I call this as well. You can almost always discount AA-QQ by 50% in this scenario. I could easily see this being Axs. The beauty of being in the 10-18 people left stage is that everyone gets the same pay out regardless of bust. You would put yourself in great position to take this down if you won the hand.

Originally Posted by fjuanl

I can't really speak for how people play at $2/180s...but I snap call. Most people are going to open normal amounts with good Ax and big pairs and jamming all the marginal hands that AQs crushes.

When did villain get to ~15BB's? Maybe he was at 20+ most of the time and now is into his shove/fold game. Have they shown down any hands at all?

This the part where I was tripped up. I have seen him show hands before in other tournies; in those, I remember seeing him show AA and JJ at showdown, but both of those hands occurred early around 25/50 blind level, so I'm not sure how accurate those are for this late in the tourney. This is the reason I suspect a smaller pair to jam here.

He showed up at my table about 8-9 hands ago with ~18-20BBs. He lost to a shorty, showing AJs; that took him down to ~11BBs. Since then, he's been shoving; this was the third or fourth one in a row, i think.

It's true you can discount QQ-AA here, as he probably close to never plays his hands like this. Surprisingly It doesn't make that big a difference though (like 3% in overall equity versus his range) because we actually have blockers that make him having AA and QQ less likely.

I think a pessimistic range is like A-10+ 22+ (maybe KQ) due to the fact that he hasn't pushed before.

It's not like he's pushing from the SB or even button, he rates to have a better than decent holding as he likely knows he has to get through the CO and the button as well.

We are essentially flipping against this range and I would rather not CALL off all my chips to flip when it will be apparent we can use our somewhat bigger stack to be SHOVE monkeys instead of call monkeys.

Originally Posted by fjuanl

Have they shown down any hands at all?

Any reads would help

Originally Posted by Im_new

He hasn't been shoving much at all... actually, this is the first shove of his I've seen.

Originally Posted by Im_new

Since then, he's been shoving; this was the third or fourth one in a row, i think.

uhhhh

Originally Posted by fjuanl

Originally Posted by Im_new

He hasn't been shoving much at all... actually, this is the first shove of his I've seen.

Originally Posted by Im_new

Since then, he's been shoving; this was the third or fourth one in a row, i think.

uhhhh

Restatement: I haven't seen his shoving range this late. I noticed that a few seconds ago. I misspoke.

And I just went to see for sure this time... this is only his second shove in a row. The other time, he called a shove and showed AJ vs the shorty. After that loss, he shoved and stole the blinds; (I was utg). Then he shoved again, which is this spot.

Sorry about that, guys. I should check this stuff to be sure the first time around, instead of relying on my weak memory.

Given villain's behavior I would probably call in this spot. He probably has a weak ace and in the worst case scenario your looking at a flip. If you take this pot you put yourself in a great position to win this torunament.

awesome sooted cards i call

Hand 0: 61.543% { AsQs }
Hand 1: 38.457% { AdAh, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QdQh, JJ-22, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcQc, AdQd, AhQh, AJs-A2s, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQc, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AJo-A2o }

To me this is what it looks like roughly (I did it really quick).

Originally Posted by revolvingiris

Hand 0: 61.543% { AsQs }
Hand 1: 38.457% { AdAh, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QdQh, JJ-22, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcQc, AdQd, AhQh, AJs-A2s, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQc, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AJo-A2o }

To me this is what it looks like roughly (I did it really quick).

This is where I fail as a poker player. I need to learn to do this stuff myself.

You guys really think he's doing this with A-2 to A-9?

optimal shove % is 20ish ignoring payouts

Originally Posted by drmcboy

optimal shove % is 20ish ignoring payouts

so that gives me ~60% equity (pokerstove), which means I'm supposed to call, right?

Equity calculations are not my friend. Anyone know of an elementary guide to this stuff? I've found a few, but they were too dense for me to absorb. All of the learning I've done has come directly from this forum. (well, mostly)

HOH

Originally Posted by drmcboy

optimal shove % is 20ish ignoring payouts

If you mean for villain how did you get this %?

And how can you ignore payouts?

kill everyone charts

and you can't/shouldn't but it gives us a starting point. Also in these it's flat until the FT I think.