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Originally Posted by GatorJH
OK, The biggest problem with this hand is that we are OOP against a TAGGISH opponent who called a raise pre-flop and then called a flop bet on a fairly dry (due to no flush draw) board. Personally I put his range here at something like - QQ-66,33,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o,98o.
If that range is accurate we were a 67.5% favorite on the flop, but have now dropped down to a 49% coinflip on the turn. So the next question becomes, what is the best way to proceed?
If we bet which hands that are beating us would fold and which hands that we are beating would call? Would he call with his entire range? Unless he has two diamonds in his hand he probably folds his straight draws and would most likely fold his lower PP's if we fire a second barrel.
On the other hand, if we check, what hands check behind and what hands bet? Would he semi-bluff his draws or weaker pairs? Would he continue to slow play his sets?
I will post the turn actions later this afternoon, but would like to get some comments on the above two questions as I think those answers are the keys to this hand.
1. He's TAGgish, not a nit. TAGs can show up with less-than-premium hands in BvB. I don't know that 98 is in his range, but if it is, so is J9, K9, Q9 and certainly A9.
2. Frankly, I don't think stats over 59 hands is really a read. It doesn't tell us enough about his postflop tendencies to answer your questions, imo.
3. You say you're probably running about the same, so what hands would you call with preflop and then flat on the flop? You're here with QJo, surely he can call in position with similar or worse hands.
The flat on the flop leads me to believe his range comprises mostly hands that we're beating.
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