another crazy over bet river hand

3 rb (after rb over), he's running something dumb like 55/7 but only 15 hands. I raised last hand and took the blinds, 12/12.

I was hoping to get him to bluff/bet worse Ax on flop or two streets of value from there but maybe not this much value...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 25 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (UTG+1) (t24085)
MP1 (t9550)
MP2 (t34150)
MP3 (t15698)
CO (t24270)
Button (t12705)
SB (t10225)
BB (t12515)
UTG (t11900)

Hero's M: 35.68

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 10, A
1 fold, Hero bets t760, 2 folds, MP3 calls t760, 4 folds

Flop: (t2195) A, Q, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

Turn: (t2195) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets t1200, MP3 raises to t2400, Hero calls t1200

River: (t6995) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t12513 (All-In), Hero..

minraises on turns are scary scary scary.

this is a little less scary since there was no betting on the flop but I just don't know if Ax is doing this enough to call here.

The way he played the flop+turn seems like a very odd way to play a fd. Usually people who would check back flop with a fd want to see the river cheaply...not minraise the turn

9x and AQ probably don't overshove the Td river; they'd be too worried about the draws getting there

imo the only hands that he takes this line with (for value) are QQ, A9, KJ, J8. if he's really flatting near ~50% he's going to have a lot of hands in his range he can decide to bluff the turn with...and once he sees the river he's never shutting down. i don't see a problem if you were a hero here...its the 3r and people do weird things

I think betting the flop and getting worse Ax to call would be a better option with this type of board texture. If he is calling wide anyways you will still get value since this board will hit a lot of his range.

As played I would fold to the river shove since we dont really beat anything. I think the thought process for this player would be: if I bet big it looks bluffy so shove.

I think this one is a much easier fold than the other one. He's so bad that diamonds are probably in his range believe it or not.

Fold on turn obviously.

Yeah instant fold on river seems fair to me.

Obv you use the overbet shove on me with the nuts

He had T8s with neither FD