Another 88 hand!

CO raiser is fairly new to the table so no solid info. Am I desperate enough yet that this is an insta shove? (~650/~4000 remaining, 585 paid)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $5.00+$0.50 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 75 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t9295)
UTG (t21295)
UTG+1 (t51849)
MP1 (t4945)
MP2 (t21900)
MP3 (t36466)
CO (t49152)
Hero (Button) (t8360)
SB (t8810)

Hero's M: 4.46

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 8
5 folds, CO raises to t3200, Hero ??

It looks like a classic "pick on the small stacks"
If you are looking to go deep rather than limp into the cash i would think this is as good a place to push

how's the pay out structure, if it is what I think it is, folding and making the money can outweigh getting your money in at about a 60% favorite against his opening range

I push, go for the win he probably has A-x here, you cant ask for a better spot

Originally Posted by Fjaman

I push, go for the win he probably has A-x here, you cant ask for a better spot

you can ask for a much better spot seeing how it's on the bubble and we have zero FE

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Originally Posted by Fjaman

I push, go for the win he probably has A-x here, you cant ask for a better spot

you can ask for a much better spot seeing how it's on the bubble and we have zero FE

BigStack is raising from CO vs 3 small stacks on the money bubble... hmm. This is a shove and its not even close.
squeeking into the money will likely net you what... 20.00. If you really need that then you probably should not be playing this tournament.

Against a very very tight LP raising range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.394% 38.63% 00.76% 337356276 6659976.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 60.606% 59.84% 00.76% 522598812 6659976.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }

Against a slightly looser raising range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.649% 47.10% 00.55% 701614332 8216424.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 52.351% 51.80% 00.55% 771657300 8216424.00 { 66+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+ }

With no reads I'd probably add in some more pps, probably a few more broadways and maybe a few more aces, and your 88 would then have the edge against his preflop range. So off the top of my head...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.806% 50.28% 00.52% 986714316 10257516.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 49.194% 48.67% 00.52% 955071036 10257516.00 { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, A8o+, KTo+ }

That may be too tight still. Nevertheless, your hand strength is far too strong given your stack size to fold here. Superduperturbo shove. Fold equity is irrelevant here, your hand is almost always ahead of his range here.

You should be getting it in automatically. It has nothing to do with desperation, as this is definitely a fairly standard spot.

This is what I dont get, you just showed an average range where we're flipping, why would we want to shove against that range when we could easily get into the money by folding.

I dont want ppl to think I'm not shoving, b/c I would be, but Im not sure it's as easy as everyone thinks I guess.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

This is what I dont get, you just showed an average range where we're flipping

Because we're supposed to exploit edges. My range is probably a bit too tight. If you add in the other small pairs we become a 3.5% favorite against their range, which is far too large to pass up.

why would we want to shove against that range when we could easily get into the money by folding.

Because getting into the money in this situation is irrelevant. Op should be looking for any and all profitable situations to get his stack in, and this would be one of them. The bubble shouldn't be a time that you try to sit around and get into it (the money). I think folding hands like this will only hurt your expectation in the long run. I think your mindset is a little bit off here, Spenda. There are tons of profitable situations that can arise around the bubble if you're willing to forget about making the money, and rather think about increasing your stack.

I think other than a very very small percentage of the time, making the money is irrelevant, when you can exploit people whose ranges are very loose, and exploit those who tighten up too much to increase your chances in the tournament.

Edit: I really don't like this.

how's the pay out structure, if it is what I think it is, folding and making the money can outweigh getting your money in at about a 60% favorite against his opening range

I think this is vastly incorrect. I mean yes, you could sit there to take away $10 or whatever the mincash pays, but is that what you're really playing tournaments for?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.806% 50.28% 00.52% 986714316 10257516.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 49.194% 48.67% 00.52% 955071036 10257516.00 { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, A8o+, KTo+ }

he's raising 4xbb. which is often "i want them to fold so i'll raise alot to scare them". i'd say this is the case especially if villains stats are not so great (since thats the only read we have if he just sat down).

i just think this big stack villain would raise 2-3xbb with a monster... wanting action... especially since we're on the bubble when most people will tighten up to make the money.

i think the above range should be.... but take out AQ+ and JJ/QQ+

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.621% 57.23% 00.39% 2099123772 14278392.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 42.379% 41.99% 00.39% 1540074612 14278392.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.190% 59.77% 00.42% 1885120896 13318392.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 39.810% 39.39% 00.42% 1242306288 13318392.00 { JJ-22, AJs-A2s, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, AJo-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

I guess we have different views on this as I don't know the math, but I'm not sure how often pushing this edge is going to result in more $EV than folding.

Let's say we have like a 55-45 equity edge, so 55% of the time we're going to double and still only have an M of less than 10. 45% of the time we bust. So, does doubling here really give us a fairly large advantage of moving way up the pay ladder when our stack still won't be even near the chip average (looking at stacks I'm assuming 3k starting chips)?

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I guess we have different views on this as I don't know the math, but I'm not sure how often pushing this edge is going to result in more $EV than folding.

Let's say we have like a 55-45 equity edge, so 55% of the time we're going to double and still only have an M of less than 10. 45% of the time we bust. So, does doubling here really give us a fairly large advantage of moving way up the pay ladder when our stack still won't be even near the chip average (looking at stacks I'm assuming 3k starting chips)?

I'm not familiar with the hard math in how much more $EV we gain when pushing the edge. Johnnyfish, mcat, or drmc might know if they chime in.

I do think we're different stylistically in the sense that I will almost never ever EVER give up 5% edges because rarely will I (or most players) be good enough to give those up in MTTs. You just can't do it. I also feel that doubling here gives you the best chance to attain more profit by going further in the tournament, especially around the bubble when there are those exploitable situations that I spoke of. You just shouldn't be folding this.

also you cant discount the posibility of villain having A-x against your 8s and then you are between 65-70% to win and why not 22-77 and then your 80% to win, 8s should all things considered be ahead of his range...

hmmm...some interesting discussion here!

Actually doubling through here + picking up blinds and antes would give me an average stack of about 18k and a realistic chance at taking this further.

Limping over the line into the money is not an option here spenda. If this is how you think about MTTs then you are playing out of your bankroll for sure. The goal is always final table not small cash.

As such I am definitely looking for spots to get my stack in, but the question here is twofold.

1. With an M of 4.5 how much of a risk am I prepared to take, i.e. minimum edge I am looking for over his range.

2. What is the best guess on his range seeing as he is unknown.

Def not folding this. The bubble is still 65 people away, so if were gonna be passing up on edges like this, you'll often end up limping into the money with no stack left and guaranteed a crappy min-cash. Obviously getting up to ~25BBs isnt going to guarantee that you'll get deep, but the bottom line is you shouldnt be passing up edges this good. Don't forget people are horribad in $5's and will sometimes fold to your shove, so its not like your out of the tournament 40-45% of the time

Originally Posted by fjuanl

Def not folding this. The bubble is still 65 people away, so if were gonna be passing up on edges like this, you'll often end up limping into the money with no stack left and guaranteed a crappy min-cash. Obviously getting up to ~25BBs isnt going to guarantee that you'll get deep, but the bottom line is you shouldnt be passing up edges this good. Don't forget people are horribad in $5's and will sometimes fold to your shove, so its not like your out of the tournament 40-45% of the time

QFT

The money means nothing considering that what you win is a little more than your buy-in. Considering that OP is short and CO could be raising fairly wide considering position, I get my chips in. OP must double-up in order to go deep and win some serious cash and this is a great spot to do that.

I'm all for getting a stack and going deep in tourmanents; however, I feel there are times when our stack hasn't progressed and the odds of getting deep even with a double is still slim. In these cases I tend to sew up a spot in the money and then gambool it up post-bubble.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I'm all for getting a stack and going deep in tourmanents; however, I feel there are times when our stack hasn't progressed and the odds of getting deep even with a double is still slim. In these cases I tend to sew up a spot in the money and then gambool it up post-bubble.

I agree in principle with you here but as you know play tightens up as the bubble approaches so you are probly gonna see at least 2 or 3 more orbits before it bursts and then if you are folding your way into the money you're not gonna have any FE when and if you do cash

With just about 10 BB's u have to shove. Granted you could be crushed or in a coinflip but most of the time you are pretty far ahead.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I'm all for getting a stack and going deep in tourmanents; however, I feel there are times when our stack hasn't progressed and the odds of getting deep even with a double is still slim. In these cases I tend to sew up a spot in the money and then gambool it up post-bubble.

I totally agree with this, there are times when going deep is such a little chance that it is probably more profitable to just get into the money. Also I find it a marginal spot to push 88 with essentially 0 fold equity here. However, I probably still do push it.

4 rotations and we blind off. I dont think this spot is even that close? Get it allin

I'd have to see what the average stack is but I don't see where Spenda is coming from at all in asserting that we could "easily get into the money by folding." I think we're gonna bubble a whole lot even if we fold here, and if we do limp into the money we'll have like 2 BB left. If there were 590 left with 585 paying then Spenda's posts in this thread would have a lot of merit.

BTW I'd snap shove here.

I also push this, squeaking into the money to get a bit more than your buyin back is not what MTTs are all about. The bubble is a great time to pick up chips from people playing too tight and from donk bigstacks bullying people with K8.

(In a classic nine-man SnG with 4 left, this is an easy fold.)

Chances are, you're going to pick up a few more hands like this before the bubble bursts...are you going to fold AK, AQ, 77 when you get them? I'm not.

I agree w/mcat.

I agree, this should be an instant call by looking at your chip stack. You got to take chances if you want to win a mtt.