AKs on Button Early Donkament

No reads on villain. It looks like a FD shove, but should i call this early?

20/40 Blinds (8 handed) -
CO (t1510)
Hero (Button) (t1875)
SB (t8380)
BB (t1225)
UTG (t2210)
UTG+1 (t2730)
MP1 (t1520)
MP2 (t1775)

Hero's M: 31.25

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K
UTG calls t40, 1 fold, MP1 calls t40, 2 folds, Hero raises to t200, 1 fold, BB calls t160, UTG calls t160, 1 fold

Flop: (t660) 5, J, 2 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets t450, 1 fold, UTG raises to t2010 (All-In), Hero ???

FWIW if you plan on folding your bet is horrible as it turns an awesome draw you could have made for free into a bluff.

but your bet is great, now call. You are a favorite against pretty much any hand worse than two pair, very small dog if they have Ax/Kx with a pair.

You say "should i call this early". Why would you fold early and call late?

Originally Posted by drmcboy

FWIW if you plan on folding your bet is horrible as it turns an awesome draw you could have made for free into a bluff.

but your bet is great, now call. You are a favorite against pretty much any hand worse than two pair, very small dog if they have Ax/Kx with a pair.

I c-betted because I didn't want to be stuck on the decision of whether or not to call behind or fold. So, I guess I didn't plan on folding.

You say "should i call this early". Why would you fold early and call late?

What I meant is should I call this bet this early in the tourney, or should I save chips?

the good dr is saving lives again.

snap call.

Would you rather double up now to 4000 or wait till later to double up to 2500?

If you know this is a correct call (which it is getting about 2:1 with around 45% equity), then what reason would you have to fold? Being scared of getting knocked out early is no reason to make an incorrect decision.

Instacall, maybe even single fist-pump.

I'm not sure why you think this being an "early" spot really matters. You need to double up a bunch of times and this is a good spot to do so.

Well, I did call, and sucked out a flush against pocket 8's. I was going through HH and thought this might be questionable.

Probably shoulda run Poker Stove a few ways before posting.

It's not really a suckout when you're a favorite.

assuming he doesnt have a set or two pair
your outs are 3 aces, 3 kings 9 clubs total of 15 approximate win % with two cards 15 x 4 = 60% ( not accurate but good enough method for a tournie quick decision).
If he has two pair or a set 9 outs 9x4 = 36%.
You have to balance these two to decide actual chances
If you assume 50% of the time he has two pair or a set that gives you a win % of 0.5x0.6+0.5X0.36=28% so fold
If you reckon two pair or a set is only 30% the win rate changes to
0.3x0.36+0.7x0.6=48% still a fold but only just. So does he have two pair or better less than 30% of the time?
Appreciate any thoughts on this maths, still working on it.

My range for bad guy might be god awful but it gives you an idea. I mean, what do donks limp UTG and call raises with. I would say pps, but who knows.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.001 secs 35,640,000 games/sec

Board: 5c Jc 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.635% 49.64% 00.00% 17690 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 50.365% 50.36% 00.00% 17950 0.00 { JJ-77, 55, 22, KcQc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c }

Edit: I just read results and I think that you know.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,940 games 0.005 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: 5c Jc 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.596% 54.60% 00.00% 3243 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 45.404% 45.40% 00.00% 2697 0.00 { 88 }

Originally Posted by baudib

Instacall, maybe even single fist-pump.

Agreed. Discussion in this thread should center on whether to fist-pump or not.

Seriously though, you're 52-53% against villain's likely hand, plus there's money in the pot already, making your call mandatory.