AKo on monotone K high flop, opp shoves ($27)

No reads, this is like 3rd/4th hand. What's your move?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 (t1530)
MP3 (t1480)
CO (t1430)
Button (t1580)
Hero (t1480)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K.
5 folds, CO calls t20, 1 fold, Hero raises to t100, BB calls t80, CO folds.

Flop: (t230) 2, 7, K (2 players)
Hero bets t150, BB raises to t1400, Hero ????

Hey tai

Well, what can I say, I don't play at your stakes, but I'd definitly fold this. The strength of your hand just decreased by a lot on that flop. I would look for a better spot, even if villain is bluffing here, I'd give him credit the first time. You would only have voluntarily lost 240 chips.

I can see villain do this kind of play with sets too btw. (at least at my stakes).

PS: If you did have the A of spades I may be tempted here! (esp. this being a turbo)

Call, let him draw to the As

Originally Posted by TLR

Call, let him draw to the As

Hey TLR,

what do you expect villain to have?

I def expect villain to have a spade, perhaps KT or a small pair. I just think its to early to gamble, but you are a favourite.

Strip

Originally Posted by elitemob

Originally Posted by TLR

Call, let him draw to the As

Hey TLR,

what do you expect villain to have?

A spades most probably, followed by Kx

If you call the raise on the flop, are you calling down any non-spade turn/river?

Originally Posted by Illfavor

If you call the raise on the flop, are you calling down any non-spade turn/river?

Opp has shoved

at my stakes I'm all-in against a random.. I don't know your stakes but still I'd probably be all-in.. I agree that he has a big spade..

If villian has a king as well with his kicker being a spade, then it's basically a coin flip.

If villian has a pocket pair that didn't connect and one of the cards is a spade, it's almost a coin flip as well.

Could villian have a made flush already? This is a tough spot, but since it's so early I think I let this go as it feels too much like a flip to me at best. Just make a note and see if he continues to make similar moves.

Originally Posted by mikeneron

If villian has a king as well with his kicker being a spade, then it's basically a coin flip.

If villian has a pocket pair that didn't connect and one of the cards is a spade, it's almost a coin flip as well.

Could villian have a made flush already? This is a tough spot, but since it's so early I think I let this go as it feels too much like a flip to me at best. Just make a note and see if he continues to make similar moves.

If villian has A spades X which is not paired it is not a coinflip, although villian may think it is because he may think pairing his A is good enough

Right, villian having the A of spades then it is 63/37%. With this and all the other scenarios though it feels overall like a flip to me, so I am letting this one go. If the blinds were a couple more levels in, then I am most likely calling unless we pick some information on the villian before then.

my instinct was to call but I got bored putting AsX combos into stove. It's looking like a fold is better unless you eliminate sets which doesn't make sense to me.

Call all day. Pay off 22 and 77 as well as flopped flushes. You're destroying their range imo.

post a range we're destroying

22/77/K9+/Asx/baby flushes

Tbh, 22/77 don't seem that likely, all we're worried about is a flopped baby flush.

I'd startracker the guy before deciding though.

Anyone know what has happened to that site? It hasn't been picking up any tourneys since July 29th.

You can't remove sets if you want K9+ in there. I think that's off (KJ is probably closer and usually with a spade). We have an OK price for these ranges but with no read I'm not convinced either of these are tight enough.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,490 games 0.005 secs 10,098,000 games/sec

Board: Ks 7s 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.535% 51.82% 01.72% 26163 867.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 46.465% 44.75% 01.72% 22593 867.00 { 77, 22, As8s, K9s+, Ks8s, Ks7s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s, AsTh, As9h, As8h, K9o+ }


KJo, K9s

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

38,610 games 0.005 secs 7,722,000 games/sec

Board: Ks 7s 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.905% 45.31% 01.59% 17495 615.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 53.095% 51.50% 01.59% 19885 615.00 { 77, 22, As8s, K9s+, Ks8s, Ks7s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s, AsTh, As9h, As8h, KJo+ }

I'm not convinced that the bigger spades play it this fast, same with sets. Anything from let's say... T9s+ doesn't seem to fit villains range. We can also throw in PP's with a spade too. 88+?

I'm not running another range, feel free, it's too much work putting in the spades. Again, saying he plays K9o fast but doesn't play a set fast makes no sense at all to me. You think he's worried about K8 making two pair or a bare ace?

I'm not arguing about the ranges but I didn't understand a thing about the stove..

you have Ks already on board why are you including that on his hand range?

You try putting 50 flush draws into stove and you'll find out, it sucks dead bears (notice how no one else posted a range).

It does seem like it should throw an error or something, but I guess we can't complain about free stuff that wildly simplifies our lives.

I've personally never used pokerstove in my entire life. >_>

I depend on you guys to post ranges.

fail, you should not be proud of that or think it's funny, you're just giving money away. It's free and takes about 5 seconds to download. PT/HEM/HUDs we can debate, esp for SNGs, not having stove is just dumb.

That's a pretty ignorant statement, I play without any software besides the occasional Startracker search. A friend of mine does the same, although our samples may be somewhat small (1500-1600 games) We've built our rolls from $50 to $2000 multi-tabling SNG's. (Starting at the 5's, playing the 20's on stars now) It's not much, but it's moderate success over the past 2-3 months I am proud of.

I have used tracker in the past for Ring games which I thought was pretty much necessary, however with SNG's I find I don't need to sit there and throw a range into stove everytime I'm put to a decision. I trust my general instincts and can compute a relatively decent range on my opponent to find out my move.

I'm not saying it wouldn't help, but you made it seem like it's impossible to make money without stove. I would like to hear your end of it though if you really think it would be a vast improvement.

You're saying you can calculate equity in your head vs a range? If you're a mathematical genius I guess it's fine, but you don't have to go any further than this thread do find some evidence to the contrary. If you put someone on either TPTK, a set or a FD I don't believe you (or anyone) can do the math in your head. Of course you'll estimate in game, then after the hand you can stove it and see if you were right to get the money in. How do you know you "can compute a relatively decent range on my opponent " if you never check your work?

This isn't about whether you have won money, it's about giving up info that is available for free and easily accessible. You can make an argument that HUDs make you a bad player because you don't pay as much attention or put too much weight on them. But HUDs/trackers are not stove, I don't know why you keep equating them.

Stove makes you a better player period and there is no downside. If it would help, why not do it?

Well, if put to a tough decision, I will throw out a theoretical range that the opp could possibly have. I can throw their name into startracker to see if they're a multi-tabling reg, a 1-tabling break even player, or simply a fish. Generally speaking I can narrow the fish's range down to the lower end and the multi-tablers to the higher end. I obviously don't get exact numbers, but I'm pretty confident with the decisions I've been put to thusfar. It ranges from being able to snap call a fish preflop with AQo early level because they're simply that bad, or snap folding AKs to a 3-bet from a multi-tabling reg.

Can you give me a few situations where stove has really helped you make a decision, or re-enforce a decision/mistake you've made?

I'm not sure you know what stove does because what you typed is great and has nothing to do with pokerstove. It doesn't give you ranges, you put them in and it gives you back your equity. So say you have a SF draw and you get check raised all in and call or fold. You think opp has TPTK or a set. Did you make the right play?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.005 secs 4,158,000 games/sec

Board: Th 9h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.681% 56.68% 00.00% 11784 0.00 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 43.319% 43.32% 00.00% 9006 0.00 { TT-99, 22, ATs, ATo }


---

Call good, fold bad

what if we add in over pairs?

ext results appended to pokerstove.txt

38,610 games 0.005 secs 7,722,000 games/sec

Board: Th 9h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.346% 55.21% 00.14% 21315 54.00 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 44.654% 44.51% 00.14% 17187 54.00 { 99+, 22, ATs, ATo }


---


no difference at all

Again, I just don't see how you're doing this in your head, nor do I see why you would want to. Not that stove also accounts for the mathematical probability of the hands you give it - in this example, it's easier to be dealt AT than a (specific) PP.



What if we have 77 and we're getting 2/1 to call a shove?

If we put opp on top 5%, it's break even

ext results appended to pokerstove.txt

719,167,680 games 0.005 secs 143,833,536,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.515% 33.30% 00.21% 225803196 1450020.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 66.485% 66.27% 00.21% 449369148 1450020.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }

whereas top 10% is a snap call

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,345,870,944 games 0.005 secs 269,174,188,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.097% 41.76% 00.34% 559145380 4543394.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 57.903% 57.56% 00.34% 770789560 4543394.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


Again, why would you not want to know this? I can see the arguments against HUDs but I don't understand why you want less info on the hands you play.

Quiz - what do you think your equity is with AK vs a range of KK+, AK?

Something I should probably know - how do you decipher between top 5%/10%? What falls under each category?

As for equity with AK vs that range... something like 35%'ish? How far off am I?

Right on! maybe you don't need stove. 38% or so.

The easiest way to figure out what is 5% is to type "5%" into poker stove and see what comes out.

Sklansky has a chart in T&P and I'm sure there is one in kill everyone too

Sweet, I thought I might've been high-balling the number a bit. Was gonna say 30-35. I just downloaded stove and tried it out a little bit, pretty neat.

How would you put opp on a range of top 5/top 10 though? I've never thought of someone's range as a percentile.

option 1 is your mind
option 2 is a hud

but it doesn't really matter. When someone raises, you aren't putting them on a hand, you're putting them on a %tile whether you know it or not. On the flop you narrow it down but pre flop you aren't saying "3x, he has AK!", you're saying he has a Great/Good/ATC hand, those are %s, they just aren't exact in your mind.