AK with overlay, big stack shoves over ($30)

SB's stats were 23/19 over about 30 hands. Call or fold here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 30 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t2620)
BB (t1380)
Hero (UTG) (t1575)
UTG+1 (t2200)
MP1 (t944)
MP2 (t515)
MP3 (t2481)
CO (t1225)
Button (t560)

Hero's M: 10.50

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K
Hero bets t250, 2 folds, MP2 raises to t515 (All-In), 3 folds, SB raises to t2620 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ????

I would call

it varies a bit depending on who wins if you fold, but you need around 43% equity to call, i can't give SB a range which makes this a fold

yah def call

Only way you can make this call is if you know how the SB plays. And since yo don't know what to do the best move is to let this hand go. If he has any pair QQ or less then you are in a virtual coin-flip for your stack. Let the hand go and use the SB, hopefuly, to take out the short-sack thus improving your position and witnessing first-hand the SBs playing style and hand range. All useful information that will improve your chances of finishing in the money.
Hope this helped!

Taking a coinflip for our stack is extremely profitable here, the dead money alone represents 2/3 of our remaining stack.

Originally Posted by wmolnar2

Only way you can make this call is if you know how the SB plays. And since yo don't know what to do the best move is to let this hand go. If he has any pair QQ or less then you are in a virtual coin-flip for your stack. Let the hand go and use the SB, hopefuly, to take out the short-sack thus improving your position and witnessing first-hand the SBs playing style and hand range. All useful information that will improve your chances of finishing in the money.
Hope this helped!

You are totally ignoring all the dead money in the pot

There isn't dead money in the pot in the strict sense of the phrase. MP2 is in the hand and will see a showdown.

You could raise slightly more and prevent MP2 from making a full raise, meaning you'll definitely get to see a flop without having to call an AI.

As played, I probably call - but I'm not fist pumping this one.

Originally Posted by fulksy

it varies a bit depending on who wins if you fold, but you need around 43% equity to call, i can't give SB a range which makes this a fold

I think the calc is more complicated because MP2 also has some equity in the pot.

Originally Posted by Nakamura

There isn't dead money in the pot in the strict sense of the phrase. MP2 is in the hand and will see a showdown.

You could raise slightly more and prevent MP2 from making a full raise, meaning you'll definitely get to see a flop without having to call an AI.

As played, I probably call - but I'm not fist pumping this one.

any player acting after MP2 can raise

Originally Posted by Nakamura

I think the calc is more complicated because MP2 also has some equity in the pot.

i found the equities for the different scenarios of players winning, and did the calcs for all the scenarios, the equity needed to call were all pretty similar around 41-43% , that said there's a pretty good chance i did them wrong

Originally Posted by fulksy

i found the equities for the different scenarios of players winning, and did the calcs for all the scenarios, the equity needed to call were all pretty similar around 41-43% , that said there's a pretty good chance i did them wrong

Wow, nice job. The figure certainly seems like it could be right.

"could" is a pretty key word there lol.

Originally Posted by TLR

any player acting after MP2 can raise

Idd, after some searching the incomplete bet rule would only apply if we made it 300, MP2 jammed and someone else called. We would not be able to jam over the caller's bet.

After looking at the stack sizes closer I think you have to push. It's your best chance to move up in stack size. If you hit this hand your assured to finish in the money. You have to take chances and this looks like a good one equity-wise. Brutal situation! Damn this game! It would help me to know the SB's hand range. Do you remember what and how he played? For example, how has he played AK, AQ, AJ, AT prior? Let me know. Ultimately I agree with TLR and other posters to call.

Originally Posted by wmolnar2

It would help me to know the SB's hand range. Do you remember what and how he played? For example, how has he played AK, AQ, AJ, AT prior? Let me know. Ultimately I agree with TLR and other posters to call.

The only information I had was that his stats were 23/19 so I would guess that he was somewhat loose/aggressive. Other than that I didn't recall what sort of hands he had played and how.

I would fold here almost always...His cold 4bet is likely never weak esp vs your utg raise.

Scoop
1325/3815 = 34.7%
Vs 4bet
1060/2120 = 50%

Vs 4bet
Player 1: 42.870 % AsKh
Player 2: 57.130 % TT+, AQs+, AKo

Vs Both
Player 1: 30.800 % AsKh
Player 2: 45.875 % TT+, AQs+, AKo
Player 3: 23.325 % 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

Player 3 will win about 1/4th of the time and we have to win 50% vs 4bets range which we don't. I also feel like I am being a little liberal with 4bets range due to positions and how little of the time people cold 4bet without the nuts vs UTG players in SNGs.