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I forgot to give villain stats. He was 34/4 over 50 hands, same trend over last 10 hands. sng wiz's opponent modeling for the whole tourney puts him on opening 63% and calling 42% of hands (45% isn't that far off) and suggests a check.
A fold here could allow the small stack to go out and i'd probably finish second, because blinds are huge, whereas a check here would put me in a tricky spot post flop if an overcard came with two rags. A push here puts me in great position to cash 1st place.
Here's how it played out.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds (3 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) (t4352)
Button (t414)
SB (t8734)
Hero's M: 5.80
Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 10
1 fold, SB calls t250, Hero bets t4352 (All-In), SB calls t3852
Flop: (t8704) K, A, 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t8704) K (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t8704) J (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: t8704
Results:
SB had 8, A (flush, Ace high).
Hero had 10, 10 (two pair, Kings and tens).
Outcome: SB won t8704
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