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99 with tons of action in front

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  1. #1

    Default 99 with tons of action in front

    'book' play is to fold, but stack size and the stage of the tournament (12 or 13 left out of 18) makes it an intersting decision

    Short stack is a donkey

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop

    Button (t1595)
    SB (t1925)
    Hero (BB) (t1290)
    UTG (t195)
    UTG+1 (t865)
    MP1 (t1650)
    MP2 (t3340)
    CO (t1280)

    Hero's M: 8.60

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
    UTG bets t195 (All-In), UTG+1 raises to t865 (All-In), MP1 calls t865, 4 folds, [color=#CC3333]Hero ?


  2. #2
    Its little strange for me to post it as a micro stakes player and maybe I dont understand enough the game at the stakes that you play but I think against the UTG+1 all in its ok to call but the problem is that MP1 called 2 all-ins
    You are also have more than 10BB so I think you can find better place to go in
  3. #3
    Interesting post TLR. My gut feeling is that it's still a fold but it's really down to what range we can put UTG+1 on.

    He's pretty desperate too, so how about.....

    22-AA, Ax, All other broadways (JT+). 31 hands?

    - you're crushing 22-88 (7 hands or 22.5%)
    - splitting with 99 (1 hand or 3.2%)
    - being crushed by TT-AA (5 hands or 16.1%)
    - favourite against A2-A9 (8 hands or 25.8%)
    - racing against all other hands AT-AK, KQ, KJ, KT, QT, QJ, JT (10 hands or 32.3%)

    Wow, if my range is even close this actually looks like a pretty easy shove over.
    - You're the reason why paradise lost
  4. #4
    Fold. I think if you play around with hand ranges you will find at best you have a 1 in 3 chance to win. With both utg+1 and mp1 getting in the hand with 5 player yet to act, I think the odds one of them has a higher pair is to great.
  5. #5
    It is quite read dependent on MP1 - if he/she is not an idiot then his/her range is very heavily weighted towards monster hands here. I have seen solid players cold call with AA and KK in this spot to try to encourage action from players still to act:

    equity win tie
    Hand 0: 14.916% 14.49% 00.42% { random }
    Hand 1: 23.708% 22.56% 01.15% { 44+, A7s+, KJs, A9o+, KJo+ }
    Hand 2: 37.271% 35.63% 01.65% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
    Hand 3: 24.104% 23.00% 01.11% { 99 }

    If he/she is an idiot then it looks better but your edge is still pretty slim:

    equity win tie
    Hand 0: 15.985% 15.46% 00.53% { random }
    Hand 1: 28.379% 27.21% 01.17% { 44+, A7s+, KJs, A9o+, KJo+ }
    Hand 2: 24.954% 23.91% 01.05% { 22+, A5s+, KTs, QTs+, A7o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
    Hand 3: 30.682% 29.94% 00.75% { 99 }
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by kevster
    Interesting post TLR. My gut feeling is that it's still a fold but it's really down to what range we can put UTG+1 on.

    He's pretty desperate too, so how about.....

    22-AA, Ax, All other broadways (JT+). 31 hands?

    - you're crushing 22-88 (7 hands or 22.5%)
    - splitting with 99 (1 hand or 3.2%)
    - being crushed by TT-AA (5 hands or 16.1%)
    - favourite against A2-A9 (8 hands or 25.8%)
    - racing against all other hands AT-AK, KQ, KJ, KT, QT, QJ, JT (10 hands or 32.3%)

    Wow, if my range is even close this actually looks like a pretty easy shove over.
    Your calculations are way off, because you did not take into account the distribution of each specific hand. There is exaclty 1 combination villian can have 99, 6 combinations for any other pocket pair and16 combinations for all other hands (4 suited and 12 unsuited)


  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by taipan168
    It is quite read dependent on MP1 - if he/she is not an idiot then his/her range is very heavily weighted towards monster hands here. I have seen solid players cold call with AA and KK in this spot to try to encourage action from players still to act:

    equity win tie
    Hand 0: 14.916% 14.49% 00.42% { random }
    Hand 1: 23.708% 22.56% 01.15% { 44+, A7s+, KJs, A9o+, KJo+ }
    Hand 2: 37.271% 35.63% 01.65% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
    Hand 3: 24.104% 23.00% 01.11% { 99 }

    If he/she is an idiot then it looks better but your edge is still pretty slim:

    equity win tie
    Hand 0: 15.985% 15.46% 00.53% { random }
    Hand 1: 28.379% 27.21% 01.17% { 44+, A7s+, KJs, A9o+, KJo+ }
    Hand 2: 24.954% 23.91% 01.05% { 22+, A5s+, KTs, QTs+, A7o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
    Hand 3: 30.682% 29.94% 00.75% { 99 }
    I agree that the main question here is MP1 range, UTG and UTG+1 can shove very wide. The fact that villian called and did not shove over actually made me think he does not have that strong of a hand, and gave him a relatively wider range, which is close to your second range. We also need to check the heads up range between MP1 and Hero and to take into account the (very slim) FE we have.

    I ended up calling this, and a key factor in my decision was the stage of the Sng (see first line of original post), Assuming 2 players get knocked off here we are relatively close to the final table, I felt it was worth taking the risk here to arrive to the final table with a decent stack, other then fold and probably come as a short stack to the final table with about 1K chips


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