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Originally Posted by taipan168
It is quite read dependent on MP1 - if he/she is not an idiot then his/her range is very heavily weighted towards monster hands here. I have seen solid players cold call with AA and KK in this spot to try to encourage action from players still to act:
equity win tie
Hand 0: 14.916% 14.49% 00.42% { random }
Hand 1: 23.708% 22.56% 01.15% { 44+, A7s+, KJs, A9o+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 37.271% 35.63% 01.65% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 24.104% 23.00% 01.11% { 99 }
If he/she is an idiot then it looks better but your edge is still pretty slim:
equity win tie
Hand 0: 15.985% 15.46% 00.53% { random }
Hand 1: 28.379% 27.21% 01.17% { 44+, A7s+, KJs, A9o+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 24.954% 23.91% 01.05% { 22+, A5s+, KTs, QTs+, A7o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 3: 30.682% 29.94% 00.75% { 99 }
I agree that the main question here is MP1 range, UTG and UTG+1 can shove very wide. The fact that villian called and did not shove over actually made me think he does not have that strong of a hand, and gave him a relatively wider range, which is close to your second range. We also need to check the heads up range between MP1 and Hero and to take into account the (very slim) FE we have.
I ended up calling this, and a key factor in my decision was the stage of the Sng (see first line of original post), Assuming 2 players get knocked off here we are relatively close to the final table, I felt it was worth taking the risk here to arrive to the final table with a decent stack, other then fold and probably come as a short stack to the final table with about 1K chips
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