66...Nearing bubble shove or fold?

Had only been at the table for 12 hands so no real stats/reads on villains.

PokerStars - $20+$2|350/700 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 106,258.00
BB: 9,027.00
UTG: 11,746.00
UTG+1: 5,560.00
UTG+2: 22,251.00
MP: 49,390.00
Hero (MP+1): 9,477.00
CO: 19,070.00
BTN: 11,545.00

SB posts ante 85.00, BB posts ante 85.00, UTG posts ante 85.00, UTG+1 posts ante 85.00, UTG+2 posts ante 85.00, MP posts ante 85.00, Hero posts ante 85.00, CO posts ante 85.00, BTN posts ante 85.00, SB posts SB 350.00, BB posts BB 700.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 1815.00) Hero has 6 6

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero ???

I wasn't too sure what to do here, I was getting shortstacked and the blinds were coming around. I don't want to wait round all day for a premium but I'm also not super happy about GII with 66 if somebody does call. I was 12 places from the money (should this even factor into my decision making?? Especially as I got into the tournament for free) and not in an awful position in the standings either.

Easy fold.

Dunno if it is an easy fold, any evidence to suggest this?

Why the hell do we want to get it in with 66 when we're close to bubble? We're never dominant when called, and often dominated. Sure we win the blinds pretty often, but so close to bubble I really don't see why we want to risk our tournie life here. Maybe a minraise is ok, but if we take that line we're folding to 3bet and not getting out of line post flop.

Note sb's stack. He can call pretty damn wide and not bat an eyelid. Our fold equity isn't great imo.

We're not playing to make the bubble though. I dunno if it is a shove or a fold fwiw but I'm pretty sure it's not an obvious fold.

Fair enough I'm not playing mega tight in this spot, but low pairs are not great at this stage, especially when we're up against a mega stack who can 3bet wide, forcing our fold, or call wide, forcing us to flip (if we're lucky). I'd much rather shove something like KQs or AJ here. There's tons we can shove to steal blinds with, but 22-77 are not hands I like right now. Maybe I'm wrong, but for me this is an easy fold and I don't even care if I see a flop with a six on it.

I'd probably ship it in and feel pretty happy about it.

You'll pick up the pot often without a fight. I might fold it from UTG if we were a bit closer to the bubble. But from MP still 12 spots away from the money I am shipping it.

This a 50/50 decision in my opinion. The fact that the SB has such a big stack would influence my decision and probably just make me fold them.

I'm glad I'm not the only person concerned about our fold equity vs the sb. I must confess it does surprise me that strong players are happy to ship this pre.

I feel like typing in chat, "hey big stack, I got nothing, please call," and then shove.

Seems our position isn't very good, if we were on the stone-cold bubble I might fold but really we want to get it in. Since 20% of our stack is already in the middle, taking it down without a fight is obviously awesome but we need to double up. Unless table breaks, the megastack is always going to be behind us so are options are A. bleed off while waiting for top 3% B. find decent hands to double up against him.

I'm not waiting for top 3%. The big stack concerns me in this spot but if I have ATo I can shove happily because big stack can call lots of dominated aces. I'm happy to ship AT+ A9s+ KJs+ KQ 88+, maybe 77 and perhaps suited broardway. 66- is where I draw the line. I acknowledge this could be a mistake. It's not that I'm afraid to bust, it's just I don't want to bust in what I consider to be a marginal spot after grinding for so long.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

it's just I don't want to bust in what I consider to be a marginal spot after grinding for so long.

this isn't poker logic

Originally Posted by ImSavy

this isn't poker logic

Ok my language wasn't the best. Add "when we're so close to getting a return for our investment" to that sentence and maybe that's more accurate. I'm not sure if shoving 66 is +ev or not, hence me wanting to fold. I want to be sure the play is +ev for me to make a move here. At first glance this feels like a bad spot, due to sb's stack. I could be missing some marginal +ev spots, sure. But this must be marginal at best, so I'm not going to lose any sleep about folding this spot.

As someone noted, this seems like an 50-50 situation. If my bankroll is 'hurt' and i wanted the money, i wont mind folding this, we still got 13,5bbs and might find a better spot before dropping below the 10bb mark.

On the other hand, if we are really comfortable with our bankroll and are multi-tabling i won't mind shoving in this spot. But for me it depends a lot on my bankroll. Im that type of player at the moment.

Seems like an easy shove and I'm pretty sure it's +EV according to ICM. I agree that if this min-cash is somewhat important to your bankroll then you can pass this up, but the optimal play here is to shove. If I had been at the table for longer than 12 hands and I had some idea of what the other players are capable of then I might raise/fold this. Wouldn't recommend this after just 12 hands though since you can't really be sure if the SB, for example, will be 3-betting you light and 3-bet/call here is definitely a bad idea either way.

If it was not for the size of the SB's stack - I would favor the shove. As things are however - of course depending on how aggressively is SB using his "powers", I would pretty much sit back - let him take out other players, wait for an opportunity when he is out of the pot or hope for that magical top 5% hand.
Perhaps that is too passive a play - but my priority (under the circumstances) is to stay in the game hopefully long enough for one of the above conditions - or for table to break.

Why are some player so scared for the bigstack?

IMO easy openshove.

i think i fold here. big stack only has to have 2 cards to call u down . still plenty off time to get it in with better hands

Shoving happily here. Our M at the start of the hand is 5.2. Depending on calling ranges, I'd estimate shoving here increases our stack in the long run to around 5.7, which is a 10% increase to our stack every shove.

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

You'll pick up the pot often without a fight. I might fold it from UTG if we were a bit closer to the bubble. But from MP still 12 spots away from the money I am shipping it.

Originally Posted by dombo

Why are some player so scared for the bigstack?

IMO easy openshove.

Shoving without hesitation!

Happy to see some who'd actually consider folding in this spot (I think I'll continue to play tourneys)

Originally Posted by dombo

Why are some player so scared for the bigstack?

IMO easy openshove.

Because we suck? That's my excuse.

Originally Posted by dombo

Why are some player so scared for the bigstack?

I remember as a apx 5-7 year old child - that was brought up by a extreme overpowering matriarch grandmother, that all grandma had to do is look LOOK in a certain way my direction and my blood froze, and I was looking for a place to hide. lol lol lol

The HUGE STACK in this case (not even big stack) all he has to do is lift an eye brow - and I should fold.

Or - seriously - with 106K chips - he can play any 2 cards - there is no risk whatsoever to him - his range is HUGE wide. So here I go into a race... WHY would I want to do that when we know any 2 cards have a real decent chance AND since he has that stack he probably is on a winning streak too!

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Because we suck? That's my excuse.

+1

btw i agree with your #4 comment People that shoves are all playing BRM and ofc when having such a big roll to multitable those limits, its probably anytime a shove. But then you really have to be playing many many tournaments to kinda even out the variance, even tho i'v read that it never evens out completely in tournaments.

It would be silly to shove this spot if trying to survive in the tournament wanting to make a few bucks. I'v tried folding myself down to under 1bb and still winning 7500$, also my 14000$ turbo win, i at some point were down to 1,5bb. So its not because its impossible to win a tournament if you dont fold 66 in that spot lol

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Because we suck? That's my excuse.

It is good 2 see some self reflection