4.40/180 ITM not final table

15 left, didnt play with original raiser till we got to 18, MP2 straitforward TAGG.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00+$0.40 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 75 Ante (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t4142)
CO (t39462)
Button (t45478)
Hero (SB) (t12781)
BB (t15743)
UTG (t37230)
MP1 (t12848)

Hero's M: 7.41

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A
UTG bets t1600, 1 fold, MP2 calls t1600, 2 folds,

Well your read on UTG pretty much makes this play. UTG is prob raising light enough to shove over.

would it be too nitty to fold here?

Fistpump shove almost all of the time.

Is it ok to be taking +cEV spots with 2-tables left in these? Do you take into account ICM before the final table?

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

would it be too nitty to fold here?

I would think so unless you have a super read on utg...I also think cEV can be used with two tables left. I dont use ICM until final.

well like, what place is hero in, how many desperate shorties are there etc. etc.

MP2 is a 'straightforward TAG' and yet he flat calls UTG's raise with about a 5bb stack...it just seems kinda weird/suspicious so that makes me lean towards folding. If the preflop raiser was in like MP2 and get's flat called by the CO or something then I'd likely snap shove.

your probably ahead of him so you should shove. If you do, and win, your chances of going deep (top 3) is much greater than folding in which case you will likely finish in 8th or worse. It's a calculated risk that I think is worth it. later in teh tournamnet, people open up with weaker hands UTG, especially with only 7 players at the table. There is a lot of fold equity as UTG is pretty much guarenteed a final table if he folds. Most of the time he wouldn't risk a third of his stack by calling a shove. There is a good chance MP1 will call with so few chips and your in good position to double up IMO.

Even though you are very short, with no read, shoving is a big mistake here imo. Call and lead out half pot not matter what comes is a much better play.

Originally Posted by Outlaw

Even though you are very short, with no read, shoving is a big mistake here imo. Call and lead out half pot not matter what comes is a much better play.

Why?

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

well like, what place is hero in, how many desperate shorties are there etc. etc.

MP2 is a 'straightforward TAG' and yet he flat calls UTG's raise with about a 5bb stack...it just seems kinda weird/suspicious so that makes me lean towards folding. If the preflop raiser was in like MP2 and get's flat called by the CO or something then I'd likely snap shove.

Yeah, if hero can fold his way to ITM for sure lay it down. TBO I'm not even worried about MP2. If UTG calls hero's shove, hero is still making a profit. Putting the big stack on only top 5% is way to tight and Ill gladly take a coin flip against MP2 with dead money in the pot.

oof sorry 12 left when this went down, and i was in 11th MP2 was last. I wasnt even concerned with him no matter what he did. from there i thought it was a squeeze. UTG should be somewhat strong, i figured MP2 had something but he really wants a flop before he commits. and if im coming over the 2 of them from my pos and stack i should get credit for something huge whether i got it or not. i did shove, UTG 99, MP2 KJspades board was all low 99 took it.

Originally Posted by Outlaw

Even though you are very short, with no read, shoving is a big mistake here imo. Call and lead out half pot not matter what comes is a much better play.

Did you bother putting them on ranges to make this statement? It's not correct to assume $4.40 players are supernits just because you don't have a read to tell you otherwise.

Easiest shove of all time BTW.

Its still a good shove. Your goal is to win the tourny just aiming at FT isnt good enough (unless there are SS you can fold to FT).

Originally Posted by revolvingiris

I also think cEV can be used with two tables left. I dont use ICM until final.

What's the diff between EV and cEV?

Well they are both thrown around pretty loosely...Technically EV is dealing more with cash games then tourney play.

Unless you get into ICM. Once ICM places a real $ value on your MTT chip stack. Then EV is calculated based on the money currently related to your chip stack.

Where as cEV (chip EV) is just the expected value of your MTT chips.