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109R AQo vs. a squeeze

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  1. #1
    johnny_fish's Avatar
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    Default 109R AQo vs. a squeeze

    109R, I'm 12th out of 15. Kongsgaard is solid and has been active. Call/fold?

    PokerStars Game #7341895984: Tournament #37162767, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1000/2000) - 2006/12/07 - 17:30:09 (ET)
    Table '37162767 10' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
    Seat 1: AlusivPnkBny (65993 in chips)
    Seat 2: Maqaq (100295 in chips)
    Seat 3: busto_soon (35426 in chips)
    Seat 4: Riverloser (54800 in chips)
    Seat 5: mikemac22 (16210 in chips)
    Seat 6: fumbo420 (145788 in chips)
    Seat 7: Kongsgaard (49594 in chips)
    Seat 8: 2POKER2 (64374 in chips)
    AlusivPnkBny: posts the ante 100
    Maqaq: posts the ante 100
    busto_soon: posts the ante 100
    Riverloser: posts the ante 100
    mikemac22: posts the ante 100
    fumbo420: posts the ante 100
    Kongsgaard: posts the ante 100
    2POKER2: posts the ante 100
    fumbo420: posts small blind 1000
    Kongsgaard: posts big blind 2000
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to busto_soon [Qs Ad]
    2POKER2: folds
    AlusivPnkBny: folds
    Maqaq: folds
    busto_soon: raises 3555 to 5555
    Riverloser: calls 5555
    mikemac22: folds
    fumbo420: folds
    Kongsgaard: raises 43939 to 49494 and is all-in
    busto_soon: ?
  2. #2
    f-ing AQ.

    I would gamble. I think given read he can do this with worse As and obv you are fine with a flip here.

    I guess if the table is tight and you like your chances to steal a few after paying blinds a fold is OK too, I know you are good push/folder.
  3. #3
    chardrian's Avatar
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    how many levels of thinking do we need to go in this?

    u have a read on him, does that read include that he should have a read on you? If so, what is it?

    The problem with that push is that it looks so much like AK, but we all know at this stage it could be a lot of pps, and maybe even hands like AJ. If you can put AJ in his range, I call, if you can't I fold.
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  4. #4
    i'd call
  5. #5
    johnny_fish's Avatar
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    I actually folded (Riverloser too, so I didn't see his hand).

    29771 to call for a 78007 pot =38.1%

    equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
    Hand 1: 57.1303 % 49.86% 07.27% { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }
    Hand 2: 42.8697 % 35.60% 07.27% { AQo }

    equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
    Hand 1: 64.4011 % 55.26% 09.14% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
    Hand 2: 35.5989 % 26.46% 09.14% { AQo }

    I'm also not closing the action.. Riverloser traps sometimes with QQ+. Also note I'm opening from the HJ and that Riverloser has Kjongaard covered. I'd probably call in the CO.
  6. #6
    I think chance of riverloser trapping is cancelled out by the chance Kong has a much worse hand that what you have in your ranges. And even if he has QQ or KK and Kong has lower pair it's an OK spot.
  7. #7
    I like your fold.
    The main question isn't whether this call has +EV. The main question is whether this call is (clearly?) better than continuing play with 30K.

    I think it isn't, unless you have some special reason to be out of mood for further play. I'd rather play a hundred tournament ends with 30K than 30-40 with 80K and few with 110K

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