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$8/180 99 on AAxA board

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  1. #1

    Default $8/180 99 on AAxA board

    Opp's stats were something like 50/38 but only over a very small sample size. Turn is a definite call, where if he has the A, I pay him, right?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 8 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

    MP2 (t1,397)
    Hero (CO) (t1,415)
    Button (t2,234)
    SB (t1,420)
    BB (t1,585)
    UTG (t1,515)
    UTG+1 (t962)
    MP1 (t1,270)

    Hero's M: 18.87

    Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 9
    3 folds, MP2 calls t50, Hero raises to t175, 2 folds, BB calls t125, MP2 calls t125

    Flop: (t550) A, A, 6 (3 players)
    BB bets t250, 1 fold, Hero calls t250

    Turn: (t1,050) A (2 players)
    BB bets t1,050, Hero calls t990 (All-In)
  2. #2
    Yes, call.
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  3. #3
    Snapping this happily.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #4
    Agree with the above posts. He is never taking this line with an ace in his hand. He might lead out with a bet to protect against a flush draw with an ace but would bet bigger then 250 into a 550 pot. Then on the turn he is value betting or checking quads instead of shoving.
  5. #5
    I wouldn't say he never has the ace, this guy is shaping up to be a fish and as such we can't expect him to be playing the hand in a manner we perceive to be optimal. I assume he'll have most available Ax in his range, so too will he have TT-KK. But I also expect to see Kx, 6x, 22-88, and sometimes total air or whiffed clubs. I'm snapping this because we crush the range I put him on, not because I think he never has the ace. There's a difference there. Assuming he never has the ace is a poor assumption imo, because we don't know anything about how this guy plays nutty hands. And making this assumption skews his range in our favour, making us more confident than we should be. I doubt it makes any difference here, but it probably would if we were holding 77.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I wouldn't say he never has the ace, this guy is shaping up to be a fish and as such we can't expect him to be playing the hand in a manner we perceive to be optimal. I assume he'll have most available Ax in his range, so too will he have TT-KK. But I also expect to see Kx, 6x, 22-88, and sometimes total air or whiffed clubs. I'm snapping this because we crush the range I put him on, not because I think he never has the ace. There's a difference there. Assuming he never has the ace is a poor assumption imo, because we don't know anything about how this guy plays nutty hands. And making this assumption skews his range in our favour, making us more confident than we should be. I doubt it makes any difference here, but it probably would if we were holding 77.
    I understand where your coming from but I still think he hardly ever has the ace with this line. Why is he only betting 250 into 550 pot on a flush draw board then then betting pot for 1050? It looks to me like he is betting 250 to try to steal the pot then after we call continues to try to take it by putting us all in. Taipan what did he end up having here?
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Credsfan03 View Post
    Taipan what did he end up having here?
    He had 6x, something like 76o if you can believe it!
  8. #8
    y would he call your raise pre flop with 6x or 67, perhaps he had Arag or even A6. kept the hand going with small bets to get as much as he can nowing he had the best hand.

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