$75, river spot with air

Villain was a random, probably flats a wider range than most on the button. If you continue, whats the best sizing? What's the best sizing with AsKs? I have ~4200 on river

Full Tilt Poker $25K Super Stack (Early Antes) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds + t10 - 9 players

BB: t7383 M = 35.16
UTG: t6190 M = 29.48
UTG+1: t3928 M = 18.70
Hero (UTG+2): t5792 M = 27.58
MP1: t3763 M = 17.92
MP2: t3881 M = 18.48
CO: t4843 M = 23.06
BTN: t8767 M = 41.75
SB: t4628 M = 22.04

Pre Flop: (t210) Hero is UTG+2 with T Q
2 folds, Hero raises to t200, 3 folds, BTN calls t200, 2 folds

Flop: (t610) 6 4 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t360, BTN calls t360

Turn: (t1330) J (2 players)
Hero bets t830, BTN calls t830

River: (t2990) A (2 players)
Hero ...

The fact that the river is Ah (not Ax) is a little worrysome... We def fold out 77-TT, but there's a decent amount of shit in his range that crushes us (weirdly played sets, and flushes come to mind).

If I am betting, I fire 1300 or so on river. Yes it's less then half pot, but I seriously doubt anyone but a huge station is gonna be calling with less then a pair of Aces for that size of a bet. Also gives us about 3k to work with if our bluff fails.

FWIW if you were planning on firing some rivers on bluffs, I dont like your turn sizing. You've bloated the pot without increasing your FE very much, and now we are betting 1300 into 3k, instead of like 1.1k into a 2.5k pot (if you had bet 620 on turn instead). We keep the same amount of FE IMO, and risk about 400 less chips.

Originally Posted by Sykedupp

FWIW if you were planning on firing some rivers on bluffs, I dont like your turn sizing. You've bloated the pot without increasing your FE very much, and now we are betting 1300 into 3k, instead of like 1.1k into a 2.5k pot (if you had bet 620 on turn instead). We keep the same amount of FE IMO, and risk about 400 less chips.

This is not true at all, betting bigger increases the number of folds you get. Fish love to pay off small value bets with like 8th pair in spots where they should never be good. I like bluffing the river for 1500 here.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

This is not true at all, betting bigger increases the number of folds you get. Fish love to pay off small value bets with like 8th pair in spots where they should never be good. I like bluffing the river for 1500 here.

So you think we get more folds on the turn for 830 then for 620? (We'd have to get 25% more folds to justify betting 25% more)

I would check river with AK, seems impossible for to call without worse Ax which he may even bet himself, and he won't have Ax without two pair much, maybe some spades he floated with.

1650 otr, Vs non random I think you can bet less.

Either shove river or don't c-bet flop IMO.

what hands will he fold for 4200 that he doesn't for 1600?

Ax and Jx if he is anywhere close to decent. I mean when we bink the flush we shove there amirite?

he almost never has Jx so I don't think we should consider it at all but I think he'll fold that for 1500 anyway. I think he'll have a lot more hands like 77 or 65/45 and hate this river.

if you think he has them a lot, why would you want him to fold Ax and Jx when you make a flush? Shoving seems pretty good if he has aces up specifically but not really very good against much else.

Shoving this river with any hand seems terrible. Villain is almost never strong unless he has a flush himself and he's usually folding his mid pair type hands to a half-pot bet almost as often as he folds them to a shove. Shoving bluffs is just wasting chips when he has a flush, and shoving the nut flush if you have it is pretty pointless since villain likely shoves worse flushes regardless of our bet size so we may as well hope he finds a hero call with his bluff-catchers (or bluff shoves with them) even though that's unlikely.

You were the one who said that bigger bets get more folds. You can't have it both ways.

If he's a tard, the bigger the bet the more likely he is to fold. If he's a good player, he will see the shove as a value bet more than he will see it as a bluff since so many players are overbetting hands when they hit them now.

My bigger point in this hand tho was that if we really don't want to be leaking chips here then we probably shouldn't even c-bet to start with.

Originally Posted by chardrian

You were the one who said that bigger bets get more folds. You can't have it both ways.

I can't? By that logic would you always have to either min-bet or open shove? I mean there's a lot of middle ground between those two options and the reasons why a normal bet > a min-bet are generally the opposite of the reasons why a normal bet > a shove, that doesn't mean I'm contradicting myself by advocating a normal bet.

When your range is strong and villain's range is likely to be very weak, with a few monsters thrown in (which this river is a great example of) I think a smaller bet makes him more likely to make a mistake than just shoving which gives him an easy decision with his whole range.