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$5.50 Deep Stacks: Weak line, ambitious bluff?

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  1. #1

    Default $5.50 Deep Stacks: Weak line, ambitious bluff?

    200 places pay, about 400 left. I'm one of the chip leaders at this stage. Villain is Croatian, only about 15 hands and running something like 20/14. I've been opening wide and looking to take advantage of how bad people play with 20bb+ stacks. It's possible villain's noticed and looking to dick wave with a wider range pre.

    Pre: seems gross vs a small 3 bet against somebody that could do some damage to my stack. Are people getting this in as standard? We block KK/AA, so it's more likely he's JJ/QQ and some suited aces and suited connectors. I'd call this as standard in a cash game deeper than 52bb effective and just get it in for 52bb, but 52bb in an mtt seems closer. QQ/KK I probably get in, AA I call sometimes, gii sometimes.

    Flop: I think we're ahead here often enough, have some equity when we're behind and can get creative on a decent amount of turn cards. Thoughts?

    Turn: For value, I have TT/99 sets here, maybe 88 and AA, 3 combos of QJs and likely 77. I can semi bluff a few combos like AJcc, AQcc, AKcc but don't have many other bluffs. I likely call JJ again. Thoughts on turning this into a bluff? We do have some equity when called. I'm not liking that villain has sized up slightly on the turn and almost committed to the hand, but he can't have much relative strength here and I look so strong.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 5.5 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds 60 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

    MP1 (t15,646)
    MP2 (t59,667)
    MP3 (t10,591)
    CO (t8,295)
    Button (t26,159)
    SB (t27,052)
    BB (t11,415)
    UTG (t13,295)
    UTG+1 (t40,362)

    MP2's M: 46.25

    Hero has A, K

    Preflop:
    3 folds, MP2 raises to t1,111, 2 folds, Button raises to t2,222, 2 folds, MP2 calls t1,111

    Flop: (t5,734) 6, 10, 9 (2 players)
    MP2 checks, Button bets t2,500, MP2 calls t2,500

    Turn: (t10,734) 8 (2 players)
    MP2 checks, Button bets t5,500, MP2 raises to t54,885 (All-In),
    Total pot: t53,488


    PS: the hand converter has gone weird. I can only convert with spoilers, can only manually remove results and doesn't show me as hero in the spoiler
    Last edited by The Bean Counter; 09-24-2016 at 06:18 AM.
  2. #2
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    in 15 hands dont think he had time to realize you are running wide,also stats cant say too much about him.
    2x 3b from BTN v MP seems weak w/those stacks. He has strong hands, then is stupid to choose that size and give odds to flat w/ your entire MP range that can"t be that wide and mostly will have a good chance to break him and you will make no mistake calling for that price, so i think is a small/medium pair, Ax, some SC, broadways that just wants to steal the pot and keep pot small if called. Could be wrong, he may want to trap and make you come over and smash you w/top of his range.
    Anyways, w/ no further info on him this small 3bet IP in these positions could mean lots.

    I for one dont like playing this OOP. would make 5200-6000/fold since i dont think they go 5bAI w/o JJ+/AK. Some will say 4b/fold is bad , but vs that range we stand like 40% and would just be breaking even. had no problem doing that in cash game, but in MTT in this situation where you are well chiped ,dont think its a good ideea to risk half your stack w/ these simple info you have. If he had like 10000-15000 chips, i would make 4b AI.

    the way you played, i"d c/f flop. think on A/K turn you"d go broke most times.Turn is c/f. Cant see him fold much of his turn betting range v/s your c/r.
    Also he could turn up some 56o
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  3. #3
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    I like this, I think it's really tough for him to find a call even with AA. He's left with ~30bb stack if he folds, well enough for him to recover without having to panic, with maybe only an hour to go until bubble, so there's certainly an incentive for him to hit the fold button. otoh, if he calls, we're still left with well over 50bb, so it's not like it hurts us too badly.

    This is the kind of play I wished I made when I was in these spots, but I usually just sit tight and cruise past the bubble. I'd probably just fold pre flop like a girl, protect my stack and table image for closer to bubble when people will fold to less pressure. But I certainly wish I was more aggressive at this stage, especially when I'm 100bb+
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #4
    Ambitious shove sounds right.
    I don't think villain has JJ+ in his range almost never. 1111 => 2222?
    I assume hero is trying to rep QJ or clubs, but would you SHOVE for value as check raise all in knowing that there is a small chance btn might bet the river with worse hands that's value betting vs your range which villain most likely is not going to call vs jam.
    tbh, It doesn't get through a lot in $5.50 deep stack tournaments.


    OP, what did villain show? :P
    Last edited by purestrategy09; 11-01-2016 at 03:26 AM.
  5. #5
    ^^

    interesting you don't think villain has JJ+ here based on sizing. This is nearly always JJ+ AK and some goofballs. If he doesn't have JJ+ then he's going to have a ton of air that will need to fold turn.

    I would take this line will all sets, straights and 2 pair (and I have a lot of these pre vs a small 3bet). I'm going to want to mix in some bluffs if we think villain can fold, and I think villain should fold most of his range in this spot. The question really is whether he will at these stakes and what mix of bluffs I should have.

    If it helps, I'll be running about 53/45 on villains hud at this stage, so my image is loose.
  6. #6
    chardrian's Avatar
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    I don't mind your preflop call, but getting it in seems standard to me too.

    As played, with so few hands on your opp, I don't like this line at all.

    His line screams big pair. He essentially min 3-bet preflop, then fires 1/2 pot on both flop and turn and has now put in close to 50% of his stack. I just don't see him folding unless he was bluffing.

    I agree that your line looks super strong - I would put you on a set, 77, maybe QJs, or a semi-bluff with something like JJ or AcKc but unless this was a pressure point of a tourney (money bubble, or huge payout increase) or you knew this player was good enough to fold, then I wouldn't try to get too ambitious against a perceived very big preflop hand - because most people just aren't good enough to fold big hands.
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  7. #7
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    You're probably right about post flop, trying to push villain off AA is probably not wise without reads. But I'd also say that getting it in vs a minraise with AKo 50bb deep doesn't seem smart based on a vague read that villain might be dick waving. We're obviously not going to 4bet shove over the minraise, so are we calling a 5bet shove? I'd really want to have reads that villain can be spewing before I call a 5b shove with AKo, because when he 5bets, I have his range as QQ+ at worst, and I feel like that's hopeful given the size of his 3bet and the sample size.

    I could probably dig a 4b/fold line. But 4b/call? Nah. I feel like we have a better chance of outplaying him post flop that getting him in with a marginal hand pre flop.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #8
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    You're probably right about post flop, trying to push villain off AA is probably not wise without reads. But I'd also say that getting it in vs a minraise with AKo 50bb deep doesn't seem smart based on a vague read that villain might be dick waving. We're obviously not going to 4bet shove over the minraise, so are we calling a 5bet shove? I'd really want to have reads that villain can be spewing before I call a 5b shove with AKo, because when he 5bets, I have his range as QQ+ at worst, and I feel like that's hopeful given the size of his 3bet and the sample size.

    I could probably dig a 4b/fold line. But 4b/call? Nah. I feel like we have a better chance of outplaying him post flop that getting him in with a marginal hand pre flop.
    by the time you 4-bet a fold would likely just be wrong given your pot odds w/50 BB effective stacks.

    so if you are looking to save chips and find a good fold then you should be calling pre and just folding that flop.
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  9. #9
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    What pot odds do we need with AKo to take on QQ+? How about KK+? If we 4b to, say, 6k, the 5b shove is around 18k, meaning a 12k call into a 24k pot. We're getting 2:1. That's great until he flips over KK+.

    That really feels like the old "I'm pot committed so meh" attitiude. I don't think we are pot committed. Against QQ+ this is going to be close, but if we put him on KK+, which is what I'd lean towards when he 5b shoves, then AKo is in terrible shape.

    I agree with your last sentence. But if we're going to spew here, post flop at least we might have some fold equity, whereas pre flop we don't. I hate getting it in pre here more than bluffing post flop.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  10. #10
    chardrian's Avatar
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    AKo is going to have close to 40% equity vs the tightest range we can give our opp which is AK, QQ+. If we are getting close to 2:1 then folding is an atrocious mistake with 40% equity at this stage of a tourney.
    http://chardrian.blogspot.com
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