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Originally Posted by matiusaa
Well what I normally look is at their vip status if they show it, if they are bronzestar, there's now way they are regs of NL5 zoom, if they have higher vip status, it tells me nothing. I also see on how many tables he is playing, if villian is multitabling, I tend to think that he's got an idea of what he's doing while playing.
In this case, villian did't show vip status, but he was multitabling.
Good stuff!
Villain isn't so 'unknown' after all!
I would guess that someone hiding their VIP status is someone who is more likely to be a medium-level player. I would guess that a very weak or recreational player would want to brag about whatever low-level achievements they had. I would guess that there may be some advantage to showing a high rating as far as intimidating Villains into making bad plays. I would guess that it's the medium level players who realize they'd be advertising their mediocrity... which both peeves them and also probably is not going to help them win.
He's multi-tabling, so he takes his game seriously. He wants to be good at poker, and he thinks he's pretty good already.
So far, we're suggesting that Villain is a mid-strength reg. He could be off of that, but we're not pinning him down too hard.
It may sound rudimentary, but that information - mid-level, multi-tabler - tells us he knows about starting hands charts, agree?
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Before the next quote: You skipped Villain's stack size, and your stack size is small. You didn't answer another poster's question about your stack size.
It is widely regarded that more chips in front of you = better.
When you sit on a short stack... you actually prevent yourself from winning your full share of an all-in. If you have the nuts, and you go all-in and get called, then you want to have as much money to bet as your opponent can possibly call. You want to have them stack dominated.
Sure, you will lose more chips when you don't win the all-in, BUT you are a strong player who has the odds in his favor far more often than not. You know when to fold and when not to shove.
Originally Posted by matiusaa
As regards his betting line, I would have played like that with 77, QQ and KK, making a check on river to induce a bluff, it might not be the best play for value to c/r river, but with such a strong hand I know deep in my inside I would have done it.
I think the honest approach you are taking at analyzing your play is your strongest quality as a poker player.
If you keep with this study, you will learn how to figure out if "it might not be the best play."
Originally Posted by matiusaa
What it confused me was his open raise size, 2,5x on utg, preflop I thought his range was going to be wider than 99+ AJ+, so he might have KQ, suited hands and AK. His OR size is what confused me a bit,
This is gold. This should be in your OP.
I agree with you. His weak open looks like he's repping a wider than standard range from UTG. It could be that he is just scared of making everyone fold when he has a monster UTG. These are both bad solutions to the perceived problems, and indicative of a low-level thinker.
I.e. if your range from UTG is too wide, then thin it out... don't lower your open raise amount.
If you're afraid of people folding when you have monsters, then your villains are folding too much, and you should widen your range.
The bottom line is that your greatest profit comes when you play your strongest hands aggressively.
Originally Posted by matiusaa
but once he pushed on the river I said to myself: I feel I have to call, but I'm not really happy about it. It smelled like a cooler, but as I had no info on him, he might do that with missed draws or with 2 pairs, or with TPTK if he is way too aggresive.
You've disproved the "no info on him" already, bro.
We know he's a mid-level multi-tabler (reg) who's figured out (or listened to the advice) that having as many chips in front of him as allowed is good. We knew this before the cards were even dealt.
Nonetheless... you're right. He could well do this with 2 pr, or TPTK... but almost def has a "sensible" opening range, based on some starting hands chart. It's supremely unlikely that he's going to show up with J6s or 53o.
We know he is playing a little scared with his opening size UTG. This tells us that he's probably got some positional awareness. Also, he thinks he's cleverly figured out this little trick that is so winning. He loves to feed that ego and "trap" people with his "sneaky" move.
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Now, we can put all this together and say that the flop KQ7dd smacks his UTG range pretty hard. It's entirely likely that he has 88+ in his range, and given his small open size, maybe all PP. He's certainly playing AKs, and probably AKo, AQs, KQs... probably wider. Including K7s in his opening range is probably pushing it.
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What is the pot odds to call the x/r OTR?
Size of the pot: $1.51 + $0.72 + ($0.72 + $1.31) = $4.26
Your amount to call: $1.31
Pot odds: $1.31/($1.31 + $4.26) ~= 23.5%
This tells us that if your equity to win the call is at least 23.5%, the call will be +EV. At worst, 0 EV.
If we assume that he has { QQ+, KQs } OTR, what is your equity?
Equilab shows ~57%
That's more than 23.5%, so the call is profitable. Against this range, VERY profitable.
What if we assume Villain only x/r OTR with { KK,QQ, KQs }, and he will call with AA?
Equilab shows ~25%
That's more than 23.5%, so the call is profitable. Against this range, slightly profitable.
So, you see... as long as Villain is holding ANY COMBO besides the sets that beat you at the end, your call is profitable.
If Villain will ONLY x/r with { KK, QQ }, then you are obv. beat and should fold.
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