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worst hands of the night, huge holes in my pockets need fixing

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  1. #1

    Default worst hands of the night, huge holes in my pockets need fixing

    $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
    PokerStars
    7 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

    Stacks:
    UTG Gorniak A ($1.57) 79bb
    UTG+1 Hero ($6.06) 303bb
    MP BrykmiD ($1.82) 91bb
    CO Achilles2582 ($1.34) 67bb
    BTN Lucky GGG125 ($0.77) 39bb
    SB beta33 ($3.58) 179bb
    BB Lüni22 ($0.23) 12bb

    Pre-Flop: (0.03, 7 players) Hero is UTG+1
    Gorniak A calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, BrykmiD calls $0.08, 3 folds, Lüni22 calls $0.06, Gorniak A folds
    Flop: ($0.27, 3 players)

    Lüni22 checks, Hero bets $0.16, BrykmiD calls $0.16, Lüni22 folds

    Turn: ($0.59, 2)
    Hero bets $0.32, BrykmiD raises to $0.64, Hero calls $0.32 River: ($1.87, 2)

    Hero checks, BrykmiD bets $0.34, Hero calls $0.34

    Final Pot: $2.55
    BrykmiD shows three of a kind, Kings


    BrykmiD wins $2.46 (net +$1.24)

    Lüni22 lost $0.08
    Gorniak A lost $0.02
    Hero lost $1.22
    Last edited by DonkeyBets; 01-12-2020 at 04:21 PM.
  2. #2
    didnt have stats or read on Villain he jsut joined table , opened with not the best Ace, got called by Villain behind me . I wasnt thinking too much during this hand besides I had flush draw with overcard. When I raised on the turn and was checkraised I did not think he would actually do it with a K, wouldnt that be kind of bad like what does he expect me to call with when hes representing the K?
  3. #3
    Hand 2 $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
    PokerStars
    8 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

    Stacks:
    UTG vaniola220188 ($1.69) 85bb
    UTG+1 Francis_419 ($2.63) 132bb
    MP1 wind kinger ($0.67) 34bb
    MP2 Cashman7954 ($2.93) 147bb
    CO gizmondouk ($2.06) 103bb
    BTN Hero ($3.20) 160bb
    SB BrykmiD ($2.44) 122bb
    BB lcch1948 ($1.73) 87bb

    Pre-Flop: (0.03, 8 players) Hero is BTN
    2 folds, wind kinger calls $0.02, Cashman7954 raises to $0.08, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.08, 2 folds, wind kinger calls $0.06
    Flop: ($0.27, 3 players)

    wind kinger bets $0.10, Cashman7954 folds, Hero calls $0.10

    Turn: ($0.47, 2)
    wind kinger bets $0.44, Hero calls $0.44 River: ($1.35, 2)

    wind kinger goes all-in $0.05, Hero calls $0.05

    Final Pot: $1.45
    wind kinger shows a straight, Five to Nine

    Hero shows two pair, Nines and Sixes


    wind kinger wins $1.40 (net +$0.73)

    Cashman7954 lost $0.08
    Hero lost $0.67
  4. #4
    The guy that won the pot was playing loose and fishy I didn’t put him on flopping a 9 the way he was betting, once he makes a full pot bet on the turn I put him on a bluff, then he rivers me. Should I have folded on the turn?
  5. #5
    $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
    PokerStars
    6 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

    Stacks:
    UTG beta33 ($3.40) 170bb
    UTG+1 NSK_Dasher ($2.19) 110bb
    CO Gorniak A ($2.24) 112bb
    BTN Hero ($4.88) 244bb
    SB AndreHausF ($2) 100bb
    BB Dira701 ($2.45) 123bb

    Pre-Flop: (0.03, 6 players) Hero is BTN
    1 fold, NSK_Dasher calls $0.02, Gorniak A calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, AndreHausF raises to $0.04, Dira701 calls $0.02, NSK_Dasher calls $0.02, Gorniak A calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02
    Flop: ($0.20, 5 players)

    AndreHausF checks, Dira701 checks, NSK_Dasher checks, Gorniak A checks, Hero bets $0.08, AndreHausF folds, Dira701 calls $0.08, NSK_Dasher calls $0.08, Gorniak A folds

    Turn: ($0.44, 3)
    Dira701 checks, NSK_Dasher checks, Hero bets $0.28, Dira701 calls $0.28, NSK_Dasher folds River: ($1, 2)

    Dira701 bets $0.48, Hero calls $0.48

    Final Pot: $1.96
    Dira701 shows a flush, King high


    Dira701 wins $1.89 (net +$1.01)

    NSK_Dasher lost $0.12
    Gorniak A lost $0.04
    Hero lost $0.88
    AndreHausF lost $0.04

    This hand was a trainwreck
  6. #6
    Poorly played for value?

    $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
    PokerStars
    8 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

    Stacks:
    UTG OnlyLime ($1.93) 97bb
    UTG+1 wind kinger ($1.96) 98bb
    MP1 Cashman7954 ($1.87) 94bb
    MP2 gizmondouk ($2) 100bb
    CO Hero ($1.97) 99bb
    BTN BrykmiD ($2.54) 127bb
    SB lcch1948 ($1.81) 91bb
    BB BorisBlade1991 ($1.39) 70bb

    Pre-Flop: (0.03, 8 players) Hero is CO
    1 fold, wind kinger calls $0.02, 1 fold, gizmondouk raises to $0.08, Hero raises to $0.14, 3 folds, wind kinger folds, gizmondouk calls $0.06
    Flop: ($0.33, 2 players)

    gizmondouk checks, Hero checks

    Turn: ($0.33, 2)
    gizmondouk bets $0.18, Hero calls $0.18 River: ($0.69, 2)

    gizmondouk checks, Hero bets $0.34, gizmondouk calls $0.34

    Final Pot: $1.37
    Hero shows two pair, Kings and Sevens


    Hero wins $1.32 (net +$0.66)

    wind kinger lost $0.02
    gizmondouk lost $0.66
  7. #7
    Hand 1 - this is fine until the river. Why are you calling ace high? Turn is marginal, but ok his Kx hands in his range are super unlikely to have made a full house, while 22 and 55 probably raise the flop, so I don't mind calling vs this minraise. His raise on the turn is ok, he might get called by flush draws, and AA probably isn't folding at these stakes. Also QQ JJ, worse Kx, there are hands he can expect value from. That said, lots of villains are not thinking about your range and are simply looking at the perceived strength of their hand. Trips, strong, raise. That's villain's thought process on the turn. At river, we miss everything and have the world's easiest fold.

    Hand 2 - I think given reads, you can just go ahead and put him in on the turn. Pay attention to stacks. There's only the two of you in the hand, he has 5c left behind after his turn bet, put him all in. At least then when he makes his hand, you have the satisfaction of knowing that ALL of the money went in when you were ahead. You can't control the river, so take it on the chin, make a note, be patient and he'll lose his money sooner or later, hopefully to you and not someone else.

    Hand 3 - fold pre, end of story.

    Hand 4 - I don't hate the 3bet pre flop Kxs and Axs are excellent bluffing hands pre flop, but if you're going to bluff pre flop, then raise more. gizmondouk is not folding to your raise when it's this small, and we want him to fold because we have a weak king. He makes it 8c, so raise 3x and make it 24c as a standard size. Flop, just bet, don't get cute in 3bet pots. I would be betting my entire 3bet range on Kxx and Axx flops, If we have AQ here, we want to rep AK and get a fold from hands like 66. Just bet everything you can have on this flop. Bet about half the pot, it's a dry flop so no need to go big. I don't like your turn call either, I think we can raise this for value. River is fine.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Hand 1 - this is fine until the river. Why are you calling ace high? Turn is marginal, but ok his Kx hands in his range are super unlikely to have made a full house, while 22 and 55 probably raise the flop, so I don't mind calling vs this minraise. His raise on the turn is ok, he might get called by flush draws, and AA probably isn't folding at these stakes. Also QQ JJ, worse Kx, there are hands he can expect value from. That said, lots of villains are not thinking about your range and are simply looking at the perceived strength of their hand. Trips, strong, raise. That's villain's thought process on the turn. At river, we miss everything and have the world's easiest fold.

    Hand 2 - I think given reads, you can just go ahead and put him in on the turn. Pay attention to stacks. There's only the two of you in the hand, he has 5c left behind after his turn bet, put him all in. At least then when he makes his hand, you have the satisfaction of knowing that ALL of the money went in when you were ahead. You can't control the river, so take it on the chin, make a note, be patient and he'll lose his money sooner or later, hopefully to you and not someone else.

    Hand 3 - fold pre, end of story.

    Hand 4 - I don't hate the 3bet pre flop Kxs and Axs are excellent bluffing hands pre flop, but if you're going to bluff pre flop, then raise more. gizmondouk is not folding to your raise when it's this small, and we want him to fold because we have a weak king. He makes it 8c, so raise 3x and make it 24c as a standard size. Flop, just bet, don't get cute in 3bet pots. I would be betting my entire 3bet range on Kxx and Axx flops, If we have AQ here, we want to rep AK and get a fold from hands like 66. Just bet everything you can have on this flop. Bet about half the pot, it's a dry flop so no need to go big. I don't like your turn call either, I think we can raise this for value. River is fine.
    Thank you I have to pick myself up off the floor I find I put myself into speculative positions because I feel like otherwise people fold far too often for me to make $$ when I do get nutted hands
  9. #9
    The first hand I thought he was bluffing, do people just re raise with trips like this? I don’t think I would’ve done it if I was him he’s killing all of his action with worse hands isn’t he? I thought the only reason he would do this is to try and rep the K by using position I actually thought my A high was good
  10. #10
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Hand 1: Villain played ABC poker and Hero leveled himself into a bad call on the river.
    Aside from the river call, Hero's play is OK.
    This is exactly the type of thing that you're at 2NL to address. My only fault in Villain's play is the min-raise OTT. However, if he did it intentionally so you'd put him on a draw, then kudos to him. I doubt it, though. More likely he's just afraid of betting more.

    You often worry that you'll be playing face up if you do this, but look what happens at 2NL when you play face up. Your opponents level themselves into a reason to call A-high after 2 streets of aggression on a paired board when they're holding flush-draw blockers.


    Hand 2: It's fine. Fold or shove OTT. His calling range includes more than 9's (a lot more, apparently) and you're winning with that shove, even if he happens to turn up a 9 this time.
    Villain should have shoved themselves. They're not folding and c/r is not ever getting a fold from Hero. They should never be in this hand. They shouldn't have called OTF, but now they have a low Stack-to-Pot Ratio (SPR) OTT, and are open-ended... just ship it and pray.


    Hand 3: Why are you playing 75o? ever? I mean, if it's limped to you in the BB, sure, but... ?

    Your pre-flop ranges are too wide. You need to fold more PRE. The root of all these questionable situations you're finding yourself in is your starting ranges.


    Hand 4: Is that a min 3-bet PRE? NO! STOP IT. NO. Think of the children!
    Raise to at least 3x the bet you're facing when you raise (as a general rule). Otherwise you're just offering the initial raiser incredibly good odds to call.
    If they fold to that bet too much, then start 3-betting weaker shit (like Axs) that still flops well, but you do kinda like a fold from them PRE.
    If they call too much, then you don't 3-bet weaker shit, you just slightly expand the top %-age of hands you 3-bet.

    It's heads-up OTF, there's a K (or A) on the board in a 3-bet pot and you were the pre-flop aggressor.
    You C-bet this flop 100% of the time in heads-up flops.

    Also, ALWAYS bet 2-pr+ hands at 2NL. Learn to value bet. See above for how to respond if villains fold or call "too much."
    Don't go broke in family pots. But if it's heads-up, you can't be scared that your 2-pair hand is behind based on nothing.
    You want their chips in the pot when you're ahead. Bet aggressively when you believe you are.

    Other than that, it's fine.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  11. #11
    Thank you for the analysis i need to work on these mistakes and plug my holes, I’m scared to value bet 2 pair on the flop a lot of times heads up because so many players are folding to c bets , should I bet anyway? Do you guys ever min raise 3 bet opponents to see where their hand is at in strength while also taking initiative without committing too many chips, or should it always be 3x?

    When a player utg or early position min raises to 0.04 how should I read that as weak play or trying to rig the pot? sometimes I can’t tell and usually ignore it and raise 3x if I have hand.. do they have pocket pairs and AQ+ type hands with min raises?
  12. #12
    Also if I had a very strong hand in position do I maybe want to make it less than 3x any times like should I want to give other players better odds to join the hand to make more money or should I keep it standard and not allow fish To catch better hand on the flop? Thanks for all the info and wise words again can’t tell you guys how much this helps I have the determination to improve rapidly and beat micros
  13. #13
    The first hand I thought he was bluffing, do people just re raise with trips like this?
    I'd raise this turn with KQ if
    a) I thought villain was likely to call with worse, like QQ or a flush draw, or
    b) if I'd been caught bluffing recently.

    This might be a bit advanced for the limits, but truth is we should mix it up, play our hands differently. Sometimes we can just call the turn to set up river value, and sometimes we can raise turn for value. In doing this, we are unpredictable. I'd also be thinking about what else I raise the turn with... maybe sometimes Axhh (though obviously you know he doesn't have that) because we rep the king after we call flop, maybe 56hh too because we beat better flush draws while still repping the king and maybe getting QQ/JJ to fold.

    Villain's turn raise is certainly not bad.

    I don’t think I would’ve done it if I was him he’s killing all of his action with worse hands isn’t he?
    It depends. He's not killing his action, as you demonstrate by calling Axhh. Also, do you fold QQ here? Or do you again assume he's bluffing?

    I actually thought my A high was good
    Fair enough, sometimes it is. But how often does it need to be good to make money with this call? Not all that often, in fairness, since it's a small bet relative to pot, but ace high still isn't going to be good vs a turn raise very often. I guess he can have worse flush draws, or an Ax gutter, but it's optimistic.

    It's best to not assume villains are playing like you think they will. Turn raises, especially at these stakes, are almost always strong, even if it seems like it's killing action.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  14. #14
    This 57o hand, it really is far too loose. There is absolutely no reason to be playing this hand, even on the button in a limp pot. I wouldn't even call 57o to a minraise on my bb.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  15. #15
    I’m scared to value bet 2 pair on the flop a lot of times heads up because so many players are folding to c bets , should I bet anyway?
    There's nothing wrong with betting a strong hand and getting folds. When we 3bet pre flop and it comes Kxx or Axx, we should just bet, even if we flopped the nuts. It's painful when we get folds, but we don't just have monster hands here. We have AA AK AQ AJs TT-QQ maybe some other Axs, we can get value from A7 78s 99 etc, and we get folds sometimes when we're behind to 66. Checking in this spot is actually a strong line to take. If I were villain, I'd proceed with extreme caution when hero checks Kxx in a 3bet pot. I'd be worried about KK.

    When a player utg or early position min raises to 0.04 how should I read that as weak play or trying to rig the pot?
    It depends on the villain. Generally, early position raises are stronger than late position raises, even when it's a minraise. Adjust your range accordingly, play with caution. Some villains are playing too loose in early position, make a note if someone shows up with 56s or something like that after minraising early position so you know not to give the guy too much respect. Without knowing they are positionally bad, assume it's a decent hand.

    Also if I had a very strong hand in position do I maybe want to make it less than 3x
    Don't get into the habit of raising strong hands less than weak hands, this is an excellent way to turn your cards face up. If you're reraising x3 with K7s but x2 with AA, someone is going to notice. Just keep it standard, make it the same regardless of your hand. This is balance, you want villains to have as much difficulty as possible putting you on a range.

    When 3betting pre flop, just make it x3. If you're 4betting, you can make it a little less, maybe x2.5, but minraises should generally be avoided because we won't get folds, which makes it difficult to reraise as a bluff.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  16. #16
    The only reason to check Kxx in a 3bet pot as the reraiser is if we know villain will bet when we check, and is unlikely to fold to later bets. On occasion, we can exploit villain tendencies, but it's important to have a solid read on villain to take unusual lines. Very few villains will meet this criteria, so don't make assumptions. Just bet Kxx and Axx when we 3bet and get called, regardless of whether we have the nuts or pure garbage.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  17. #17
    Thank you OngBonga these responses are perfect I really appreciate it. Taking everything in and will be coming back to re read everything till I know it’s imprinted.
  18. #18
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    Thank you for the analysis i need to work on these mistakes and plug my holes, I’m scared to value bet 2 pair on the flop a lot of times heads up because so many players are folding to c bets , should I bet anyway?
    YES. You always bet for value at the micro-stakes.

    In any spot, if people are folding or calling "too much," you slightly expand your range to compensate.
    In both cases, you widen up, but HOW you widen up is different.

    When Villains are folding too much in a spot, you expand your range by betting not only your best hands, but also your worst hands in that spot. (Post-flop. Don't go raising 72o PRE.)
    When Villains are calling too much in a spot, you expand your range by betting only your best hands, but you loosen your standard on what counts as your "best" hands in that spot.

    In both cases, you only want to make tiny adjustments and see how it goes. Add 1 combo at a time. Keep updating your habits against each villain as they show you more and more information over time.

    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    Do you guys ever min raise 3 bet opponents to see where their hand is at in strength while also taking initiative without committing too many chips, or should it always be 3x?
    I never put my chips in the pot to "see where Villain is." Other people will do that for me, and all I need to do is pay attention during their hands and I get all the benefit with none of the risk.

    Do a couple of pot-odds calculations from Villain's perspective to a min 3-bet and to a 3x 3-bet. You'll see a good reason to not bet small to "see where Villain is." The smaller you bet, the more they should call, so you get less info than you might have been expecting if they are clever enough to call wider against small bets. (Prob they don't, or don't do it well, but each villain may or may not so pay attention to each.)

    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    When a player utg or early position min raises to 0.04 how should I read that as weak play or trying to rig the pot?
    Start by reading it as weak and raise appropriately. If a specific Villain shows you they were trapping or something, make a note and treat them differently than the pack.

    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    sometimes I can’t tell and usually ignore it and raise 3x if I have hand.. do they have pocket pairs and AQ+ type hands with min raises?
    Depends on the Villain.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  19. #19
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    Also if I had a very strong hand in position do I maybe want to make it less than 3x any times like should I want to give other players better odds to join the hand to make more money or should I keep it standard and not allow fish To catch better hand on the flop? Thanks for all the info and wise words again can’t tell you guys how much this helps I have the determination to improve rapidly and beat micros
    It dramatically reduces your odds of winning the more opponents you have to beat. In almost all cases, you want to be heads up OTF.
    Playing suited aces and suited connectors from the blinds is an exception where you are not the pre-flop aggressor and you want big implied odds on the hand, so being in a family pot is actually good.

    Just remember:
    Don't go broke in a family pot.
    The odds that someone has the nuts with random 2 cards is much higher the more hands see the flop.

    You're doing great - asking good questions and being interactive with the responses.
    If this is indicative of your greater poker study habits, then I predict you'll be comfortably playing at least 10NL within a years' time.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    It dramatically reduces your odds of winning the more opponents you have to beat. In almost all cases, you want to be heads up OTF.
    Playing suited aces and suited connectors from the blinds is an exception where you are not the pre-flop aggressor and you want big implied odds on the hand, so being in a family pot is actually good.

    Just remember:
    Don't go broke in a family pot.
    The odds that someone has the nuts with random 2 cards is much higher the more hands see the flop.

    You're doing great - asking good questions and being interactive with the responses.
    If this is indicative of your greater poker study habits, then I predict you'll be comfortably playing at least 10NL within a years' time.
    Thank you this means a lot wether it happens or not thanks for the support , I am poor and I have MS so I’m trying to change my life with poker I played it a lot over the past years but never with studying, theory and math.
  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    YES. You always bet for value at the micro-stakes.

    In any spot, if people are folding or calling "too much," you slightly expand your range to compensate.
    In both cases, you widen up, but HOW you widen up is different.

    When Villains are folding too much in a spot, you expand your range by betting not only your best hands, but also your worst hands in that spot. (Post-flop. Don't go raising 72o PRE.)
    When Villains are calling too much in a spot, you expand your range by betting only your best hands, but you loosen your standard on what counts as your "best" hands in that spot.

    Ok I will try to keep this in mind while playing.
    If I expand my range and Villain calls, I miss the flop but C-bet and he calls again should I give up on the turn if I don’t have anything? I know it’s all situational but I have a hard time sometimes giving up on a hand after I’ve Cbet HU in position , getting called and now the pot is a decent size but villain hasn’t showed much strength yet especially after a 2nd check on the turn. I feel like I should probrably stay away from bluffing in micros for the most part? Villain is calling all the way to river with top pair on the flop regardless if overcard comes on turn or river? I know we go by stats and playing patterns but it’s a tricky position sometimes wether to give up or fire again on the turn versus passive players after flop.should I even try to represent anything or just give up?
    Last edited by DonkeyBets; 01-13-2020 at 12:00 PM.
  22. #22
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    If I expand my range and Villain calls, I miss the flop but C-bet and he calls again should I give up on the turn if I don’t have anything? I know it’s all situational but I have a hard time sometimes giving up on a hand after I’ve Cbet HU in position , getting called and now the pot is a decent size but villain hasn’t showed much strength yet especially after a 2nd check on the turn.
    I mean "give up" is relative. You're in position. If your flop C-bet bought you 2 cards 'cause Villain with check to you OTT, then that's great.
    Just remember that unless you have a note on Villain that they bluff... don't assume they bluff.
    Play cautiously on the River if they bet, and don't feel like you have to fire a bet on the river when you've missed and they check to you.

    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    I feel like I should probrably stay away from bluffing in micros for the most part?
    The first rule of bluffing is that you never try to bluff someone who can't be bluffed.

    If you've seen them call down with a 1-pair hand, then they can't be bluffed off of 1-pair hands. Don't try to.
    If you've never seen them fold a pair (or reasonably surmised they probably did), then don't try to bluff them off a pair.

    If you have a strong reason to believe they've folded a 1-pair+ hand to pressure, then make a note of it, along with board texture (dry, wet, super wet). Maybe their aware of board texture, but maybe they just didn't have the hand you put them on.
    If they can be bluffed, then you're OK to try to bluff them maybe once an hour or every 90 minutes or so. Bluffing isn't a big part of 2NL. Many Villains call way too light, and can't be bluffed off any 1 pair+ hand.

    This is WHY you ALWAYS value bet at the micros. It goes hand-in-hand with the (almost) never bluff rule.

    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    Villain is calling all the way to river with top pair on the flop regardless if overcard comes on turn or river?
    Way too many Villains bluff way too often at the micros, and the reality is that calling down on the river with bluff catchers is usually not the worst thing you can do with your money.

    Often, it's pretty bad. Villains can make hands, too, after all. But just the same, if you do it against the right people and not the wrong people, then you can print money calling down smallish river bets light.

    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    I know we go by stats and playing patterns but it’s a tricky position sometimes wether to give up or fire again on the turn versus passive players after flop.should I even try to represent anything or just give up?
    It depends on the Villain. There wont be one correct answer to this.

    Against the player pool, just play ABC, "face up" poker and you'll do OK. Once you've established a read on a particular villain, then you don't use the player pool read on them ever again, and you adjust to beat them as an individual.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.

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