vs. reg in 3bet pot OOP

WPN No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - WPN Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

SB ($1.04) VPIP: 27, PFR: 22, 3B: 11, AF: 2.9, Hands: 979
Hero (BB) ($2.16)
UTG ($2.06) VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4.1, Hands: 1753
MP ($3.28) VPIP: 24, PFR: 19, 3B: 9, AF: 2.6, Hands: 1348
CO ($6.84) VPIP: 23, PFR: 12, 3B: 3, AF: 1.7, Hands: 113
Button ($1.96) VPIP: 50, PFR: 2, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 166

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
UTG raises $0.08, 2 folds, Button calls $0.08, 1 fold, Hero raises $0.24, UTG calls $0.18, Button calls $0.18

Flop: ($0.79) 7, 5, J (3 players)
Hero bets $0.45, UTG calls $0.45, 1 fold

Turn: ($1.69) Q (2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero??

villain calls a 3bet 44%, folds to 3bet 45% and 4bets 11%
folds to a cbet 59%, folds to turn cbet 50%

I expect villain to have 2 overs (AQ,KQ) or TP+ here when he continues OTF.

I know my preflop sizing was really bad, should of been like .32-ish.

b/f turn and river. I'd be firing 60-70% ish.

*edit - we can't b/f because of stack sizes. Bet half your remaining stack on turn and put the rest in on river imo.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

b/f turn and river. I'd be firing 60-70% ish.

*edit - we can't b/f because of stack sizes. Bet half your remaining stack on turn and put the rest in on river imo.

Regarding bet sizing, I always think of these 2 formulas that I´d like to share for when we want to get the rest of our stack in by the river:

Leaving a 1/2 pot sized bet OTR

(Remaining Effective Stack - 1/2 the pot) / 2

Leaving a pot sized bet OTR

(Remaining Effective Stack - pot) / 3

Both are pretty easy to calculate on the spot and they come in handy pretty often. They are not usfeul for this particular hand, Ong´s suggestion is good IMO, but I just wanted to share them.

3b bigger PF (makes decisions postflop easier).

Bet/call flop
Bet/call turn
Shove river.

Sometimes villain will have you beat by the river. Just move on to the next hand.

Gah, I kind of want to exploitably and retardedly check fold at 2nl, even with less than PSB behind. I just don't think we get called by anything we beat on the turn and villain is set heavy here. Villain also won't turn Jx or 98s into a bluff Vs a turn check.

Does anyone hate a turn shove here? It's $1.50 into $1.70 pot

I hate the turn shove.
You're less likely to get called by weaker hands with no real chance of folding out anything stronger, might as well take two streets to bring along as much of villain's range as possible. Even the flush draws are mostly blocked (A7 would be plausible but K7?)

I don't think he's got enough sets to justify X/F. B/F might be viable on the grounds that a raise here has it 95%+ at this level ...dunno if the number is actually that high though; I suspect there are too many players raising with AJ/AQ ...though 59%FCB makes this guy an unlikely prospect.

I think if you aim to get the rest of the money in you won't be going far wrong and at this point that means playing slow with either a smaller bet (50c? 30c? -I see bets like that and they're almost always weak: 2nd pair or worse) or even a Check/Call.