UTG w AKo facing SB 3bet

Villain hasnt played much, but its only over 30-40 hands. Table has been pretty tight with few showdowns.

PokerStars Hand #239208734396: Hold'em No Limit ($0.02/$0.05 USD) - 2022/10/13 14:30:13 CT [2022/10/13 15:30:13 ET]
Table 'Wasat' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ($6.72 in chips)
Seat 2: Bennett1002 ($4.93 in chips)
Seat 3: Belgianfriend ($5.51 in chips)
Seat 4: Chen311086 ($5.80 in chips)
Seat 5: Nympho89 ($5.30 in chips)
Seat 6: BESTDAY09 ($5.95 in chips)
Chen311086: posts small blind $0.02
Nympho89: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Markland999 [Ad Kc]
BESTDAY09: folds
Hero: raises $0.10 to $0.15
Bennett1002: folds
Belgianfriend: folds
Chen311086: raises $0.27 to $0.42
Nympho89: folds
Hero: calls $0.27
*** FLOP *** [Qc As 8s]
Chen311086: bets $0.30
Hero: calls $0.30
*** TURN *** [Qc As 8s] [9d]
Chen311086: bets $0.79
Hero: calls $0.79
*** RIVER *** [Qc As 8s 9d] [5s]
Chen311086: bets $1.62
Hero: ?

I just flatted his 3bet bc I feel a 3bet from SB vs UTG raise should be strong with JJ+ and AQ+, maybe KQs
so I decide to keep things small as possible and have position. Maybe wrong thinking.

I just call flop - no need to shut him down if he's behind and the turn I was thinking the same.
River - that card (and the turn) dont change anything. Hard to see what I beat except KQ (if he would 3bet KQ)

Would a 4bet pre have helped me make the decisions easier? Is it a turn fold or river fold or am I calling?

I have no HUD

Table dynamics are important here imo. How often are we seeing 3bets? Have there been any 4bets yet? Is this villain's first 3bet?

Calling the 3bet is absolutely fine, but if we feel like we can get called by AQ or maybe even worse then 4betting is obviously better. But if we're not expecting villain to ever r/c light, then calling is better. Folding is obviously not an option.

Post flop, c/c flop is absolutely the correct play here. We're only really losing to AA, AQ and QQ and we block AA hard (only one combo). We don't want to scare off his JJ/KK and any air bluffs he has. Yes there's a flush draw out there but in 3bet pots we tend to not have to worry quite so much about flushes, though obviously he can still 3bet 9Tss for example. He's just less likely to have marginal suited hands when he 3bets compared to when he calls. So I'm not going to raise this to charge his flush draws, especially considering as the 3better he can easily rep QQ/AA/AQ and rip it in our face with his flush draws, putting us in a horrible spot. So call flop 100%.

Turn, again I'm just c/c'ing. It's mostly a blank though JTs gets there. From villain's pov this turn doesn't change anything, the only JTs we should have here is JTss, though I guess we could float clubs sometimes. So he can confidently bet again if he feels he's good.

Chances are he slows down with KK or JJ here so his 2nd barrel does have me nervous, but if he can 3bet bluff pre then this is a great board for him to triple barrel, especially if we're talking about folding AK at any point in the hand. So I'm not folding turn either.

River is disgusting. You say it's a blank but it very much isn't. Even if he's unlikely to have a flush, we can definitely have one. We're are likely to have more suited hands in our range than him, and we've played this post flop exactly like a flush draw that doesn't want to get aggro against a guy repping AA/AK/AQ/QQ. So his bet on the river, I really feel like he has the Ks here, the nut blocker, which gives him the info that we're less likely to have a flush draw. And if he has the Ks, he either has a flush and was bluffing pre flop, he has AK and we're chopping, or he has no showdown value and is trying to steal. Maybe he's turning KK into a bluff.

I'm talking myself into calling here because it doesn't make sense for him to barrel this river unless he has exactly a flush or QQ/AA and doesn't want to miss a street of value. But it's a strong line he's taken and we really do need him to have bluffs in his range sometimes because even when we're good here we're probably just chopping.

If he can have a flush here with KJss, then he can 3bet KJdd pre flop too and this is a great board for him to triple barrel, so we can pay off his flushes no problem knowing that there's 2 other combos of KJss he can play the same here that we do beat.

I'm worried more about AA/QQ/AQ, we need to balance this part of his range out with hands we beat. There has to be more bluffs in his range for us to call river.

But I really feel like he has the Ks. If he's holding that card he's much less likely to get raised on the river. So he can make thinner value bets and bluffs.

Sample size is too small to say with confidence this guy isn't 3bet bluffing pre. I'm paying him off. If I were the 3better and he was aggro post flop I'd be more likely to quietly let this go.

After it was over I felt like there wasnt much I beat, and at best was chopping. It had been a tight table, to the point I was getting ready to leave. I don't remember seeing him do much except steal blinds. I feel good until the river, but wasnt really thinking of flushes at all. I thought KK would shut down, but almost everything else that continues probably has us beat.
Villain had AhQs

Yeah AQ is obviously part of his range, it's a good bet from him on the river because it's not a blank, it would be easy for him to c/c but he's reaching for thin value instead. I'd have called too, not thrilled about it but I just don't se how I can call two streets with tptk AK in a 3bet pot and then fold river. We need really strong reads to be able to play this hand perfectly.

This is just one of those hands we take on the chin.

Can't find anything in ong's analysis to add to.

Except maybe that calling 3 streets of pressure with TPTK against a player you don't know to bluff 3 streets is not going to work out well.
Which is a pretty bland take, but also a safe one. There are better things to focus on in my play that will have a more consistent positive effect on my winrate than trying to unravel what to do on rivers with TPTK when facing 3 streets of aggression, IMO.

In my experience at low stakes, that 3rd barrel is either A) obv that player always fires 3 barrels, regardless of their hand or B) that player wouldn't fire OTR unless they had at least TPTK.

The answers tend to be rather obvious against only those 2 mindsets.

Yeah I'm never calling this river expecting to be good. I just call it because I level myself into thinking this is a great spot for the Ks to bluff. Also because folding at the river is extremely exploitable, if villain knows we're folding AK here he can get massive value with absolute trash in 3bet spots vs us. Sometimes it's the lesser of two evils to just pay off what you know is a value bet. It's sometimes easier to accept losing AK vs AQ than it is to fold tptk and never know if it was a bad fold. That can tilt us more than losing a big pot.

Not that this should really influence our decision, but poker is part mathematics and part psychology, so I do think about this side of the game.

You just gotta call while fighting back a yawn in these spots, particularly with these sizes.

Your ranges for a 3b from SB are way off, at least in theory. They should be playing (basically) 3b or fold, and should be 3bing something like 7% of hands against LJ, which is like 99+/AQ and most suited broadways. You're going to see plenty of whiffed broadway draws and the like.

Of course, there are players you can fold against. If you were running a HUD and their 3b were <5% or AFq <40%, then you can fold and buy yourself something nice with the $1.62 you saved.