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Originally Posted by seven-deuce
I remember stoving QQ vs JJ+ AK before and it isn't a profitable stack off preflop, and very few people are stacking off that wide preflop at 10nl anyway. That's why I don't 3bet them until I see they have a 3bet calling range and I know I can raise for value.
Well, when you come across opponents whose CO open% is double their UTG open%, you're going to want to be able to defend your blinds with as many hands as you can sustain. A big part of that strategy will be 3b'ing a wide range. If you're 3b'ing a wide range, there will be a lot of hands that you're going to auto-fold to a 4b. If you're defending your blinds a lot, then villain might very well adjust by 4b'ing a lot. If you have so few value 3bs that your range consists almost entirely of 3b/f's, then there is nothing you can do then sit back and watch you get manhandled.
Conclusion: if you're defending your BB wide, then villain might very well start 4b'ing. We can't say for sure whether he will or won't, and we can't say whether he will be 4b'ing garbage that will fold to a 5b or if he'll suddenly start thinking 88 is the nuts, but we can say that in general, when you defend more, you'll see more 4bs (though it's tough to pick and choose which opponents will do what exactly). When opponents start 4b'ing more, you'll see profits with QQ, either because it's getting a lot of 4b/f's or because villain is calling lighter or because it is often winning when stacks get in.
The idea isn't so much to frustrate them with so many 3bs that by the time they play back, you have QQ, and you can say "LOLtrappedU"; the idea is to be able to play a wide range of hands while remaining *indifferent* to how he plays back.
It's nice that you want to be an adaptive player and make quick adjustments to your opponents' playstyles, but when you're playing 500+ hands/hour, you have to be realistic about how much you can *really* keep with the game dynamics between each and every opponent. And at 10NL, you're generally not getting the 1k+ hand histories that justify doing the off-table study of your opponents necessary to make nuanced exploitative plans.
I mean, obviously don't 3b nits with a wide value range; don't stress too much about defending your blinds against players whose Steal% is identical to their PFR; iso 50/10 fish with a wide range IP; etc. Those high-level understandings are important. But don't go thinking that you'll be able to effectively change your 3b'ing strategy 4 times over the first 500 hands against an opponent based on whether or not he folded the last two times, and *definitely* don't rely on seeing too many showdowns, especially with the bottom of his range, so you can never really know exactly how any opponent is playing.
All of that being said, I want to reemphasize that if villain doesn't open the CO a whole lot, then none of this matters.
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