Top Two Pair Facing Triple Barrel on 3-flush Board

[abelardx]

These hands are from Bovada so no individual stats and since it takes a day or two to get the hands I don't remember specific reads either. But I give my estimate of the player type from looking at the hand histories.

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Villain looks like a reg. Probably he is capable of bluffing but I think it's uncommon for 5nl regs to bluff all three streets at least with complete air. Call the turn bet? I did. Call the river? Our hand is a little under-repped but he is saying he has a flush.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

BB ($4.29)
UTG ($4.83)
MP ($1.90)
CO ($5.50)
Hero (Button) ($13.71)
SB ($1.46)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, K
UTG calls $0.05, MP calls $0.05, CO raises to $0.18, Hero calls $0.18, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.13, MP calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.79) 6, Q, J (4 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, CO bets $0.44, Hero calls $0.44, 2 folds

Turn: ($1.67) K (2 players)
CO bets $1.67, Hero calls $1.67

River: ($5.01) 6 (2 players)
CO bets $2.50, Hero ??

[BorisTheSpider]

I think you can call. He only has to have worse 25% of the time, I think he can feel like he's value towning with JQ or KJ (and flop+turn sizing combined so somewhat favour KJ). I think you'd need to properly do the combos to know for sure, but instinctively I feel like I probably call here.

[The Bean Counter]

Villain has no bluffs, but question is whether he value bets worse - how do the combos look?

Interesting that he leaves a bit behind on the river when a shove makes more sense - what does this usually mean in your experience in these games?

[abelardx]

Villain has no bluffs, but question is whether he value bets worse - how do the combos look?

Interesting that he leaves a bit behind on the river when a shove makes more sense - what does this usually mean in your experience in these games?

Bovada has pot and half pot buttons. So half pot bets are common. I don't think the sizing means anything special.

[griffey24]

snap call that sizing.

Even if the sizing "doesn't mean anything special", we're still getting v good pot odds.

[jackvance]

If he's indeed been playing like a reg you can fold the river.

[BorisTheSpider]

If he's indeed been playing like a reg you can fold the river.

You don't think a reg bets QJ/KJ for value here? Esp. with this sizing.

[jackvance]

You don't think a reg bets QJ/KJ for value here? Esp. with this sizing.

He is practically going allin, QJ would be scared on this board and KJ usually doesn't bet the flop into 3 people. I'd have to put some bluffs/spazzes into his range but I don't see it.

[BorisTheSpider]

He is practically going allin, QJ would be scared on this board and KJ usually doesn't bet the flop into 3 people. I'd have to put some bluffs/spazzes into his range but I don't see it.

Hmm, yeah, thanks - my handreading sucks, I think you're right KJ isn't there. I still think he can be betting QJ, but I'm not sure, and even if he is we're still barely able to call (28% equity), if he's not betting QJ we have 18% against [KK-JJ, 66, KQ, AQdd, ATdd]

Flop betting range:

JJ+, 66, AQ, AdTd, KQ, QJ

Turn betting range:

AdAx, KK-JJ, 66, KQ, ATdd, AQdd, QdJx, AdQx

River betting range:

KK-JJ, 66, KQ, AQdd, ATdd

[Micro2Macro]

write down YOUR range on river. (if its really wide perhaps you should have folded some hands in it somewhere on earlier streets)

call top 67%.

take a note if he shows up with something interesting. If his value range is narrow, that means he can have very few bluffs given his sizing, so if he shows up betting AJ only a fraction of the time and he only value bets flushes+ you are correct to call. theory wise you may be able to fold KQ depending on how you play flushes and boats on earlier streets.

[jackvance]

write down YOUR range on river. (if its really wide perhaps you should have folded some hands in it somewhere on earlier streets)

call top 67%.

take a note if he shows up with something interesting. If his value range is narrow, that means he can have very few bluffs given his sizing, so if he shows up betting AJ only a fraction of the time and he only value bets flushes+ you are correct to call. theory wise you may be able to fold KQ depending on how you play flushes and boats on earlier streets.

Good post, this is basically the GTO approach to being unexploitable but like you allude to if hero isn't balanced enough when he arrives on the river this won't be the whole story.

[BorisTheSpider]

write down YOUR range on river. (if its really wide perhaps you should have folded some hands in it somewhere on earlier streets)

call top 67%.

I'll take a shot at this.

Range preflop
TT-22, AQs-A8s, AQo-AJo, KTs+, KQo, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s

Range that flats the flop

AQ not dd, AJ, ATdd, A9dd, A8dd, KQ, QT not dd, T9 not dd, T8s, 98s, 97dd, 87dd, 75dd, 54dd

Range that flats the turn (my river range)

AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, KhQh, KcQc, KsQs, KQo, Th9h, Tc9c, Ts9s, Td8d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 7d5d, 5d4d

57% of this is flushes and straights, so to call top 2/3 of it, I need another couple of 2-pair
combos, so we can call with top 2 pair here, but only some of the time. We can have 9 combos
of it, and we can only call with 2 of them, so an easy way to do that would be to call with just
KQcc and KQss, in which case we're folding the river here.

If his value range is narrow, that means he can have very few bluffs given his sizing, so if he shows up betting AJ only a fraction of the time and he only value bets flushes+ you are correct to call.

Ok, completely lost here - if his value range is narrow like flushes+, and that means he can have very few bluffs, how can it be correct to call at the bottom of our range? Sorry if I'm being dumb here, but I just don't get this at all.

[abelardx]

write down YOUR range on river. (if its really wide perhaps you should have folded some hands in it somewhere on earlier streets)

call top 67%.

take a note if he shows up with something interesting. If his value range is narrow, that means he can have very few bluffs given his sizing, so if he shows up betting AJ only a fraction of the time and he only value bets flushes+ you are correct to call. theory wise you may be able to fold KQ depending on how you play flushes and boats on earlier streets.

Thanks M2M. I will get to this tonight.

[Pelion]

I'm confused. Don't you ever raise that turn?

[jackvance]

Ok, completely lost here - if his value range is narrow like flushes+, and that means he can have very few bluffs, how can it be correct to call at the bottom of our range? Sorry if I'm being dumb here, but I just don't get this at all.

If villain bluffs here optimally (25% of the time) we are indifferent to calling, however villain is probably somewhat unbalanced here so how do we modify our calling range to be unexploitable?

[BorisTheSpider]

I'm confused. Don't you ever raise that turn?

Me?

I'd have to look back in detail, but there were some turn raising hands that didn't make it to the river with the action in the OP

[abelardx]

write down YOUR range on river. (if its really wide perhaps you should have folded some hands in it somewhere on earlier streets)

call top 67%.

take a note if he shows up with something interesting. If his value range is narrow, that means he can have very few bluffs given his sizing, so if he shows up betting AJ only a fraction of the time and he only value bets flushes+ you are correct to call. theory wise you may be able to fold KQ depending on how you play flushes and boats on earlier streets.

CO opens, and I might flat otb with any of:

• JJ-22, AQ-AT, KQ, QJ, suited broadway, A2s+, 54s+

The blinds fold.


The flop is 6d Qh Jd.

CO bets about half pot, and I flat with:

• AQ-AT, KQ, KTs not dd, A9dd-A7dd, A5dd-A2dd, T9dd-87dd, 54dd

Since the flop is wet, I'd probably raise KK, AQ, QJ and sets.


The turn is Kd.

CO bets pot, and I flat with hands with a K, straights and flushes:

• AT, KQ, KTs not dd, A9dd-A7dd, A5dd-A2dd, T9dd-87dd, 54dd

I probably don't raise anything on the turn.

So my range on the river is:

• AT for a straight -> 16 combos, one of which is a straight flush
• KQ for top two -> 9 combos
• KTs not dd -> 3 combos
• A9-A7, A5-A2, all dd for the nut flush -> 7 combos
• T9dd-87dd, 54dd, non-nut flushes -> 4 combos

That is 39 combos. I should call the top 2/3 which is 26 combos:

• 7 nut flushes, I'd actually jam these
• 4 non-nut flushes
• 16 straights

That's 27 combos. So GTO-style (?), I should fold the 9 combos of top two and the 3 combos of top pair, which I think is probably the correct thing in my games, anyway.