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Taking shots at $50nl, how bad did I play this?

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  1. #1

    Default Taking shots at $50nl, how bad did I play this?

    I have an issue with folding Top pair, and a flush draw.

    Well this hand I had top pair top kicker, and a nut flush draw but when he showed me his cards my top pair was useless and the only thing that mattered was the nut flush draw.

    Hero on BTN delt AdJh, I have 122bb

    Villain in SB has 93bb and I've played 50 hands with him
    VPIP 48/PFR 21/AGG 1.7/3BET 0.0

    UTG OL 1bb
    BTN raises to 4.5bb
    SB calls
    UTG calls

    Pot is 14.5bb on flop.

    Flop comes 6d Jd 5d

    Hero flops top pair top kicker, and a nut flush draw and an over

    SB X's
    UTG X's
    Hero bets 9bb
    SB raises 28bb
    UTG folds

    See here's what I'm thinking in the hand, this guy has never made such blatantly aggressive plays 95% of the time he's not doing this on anything less than a flopped flush, or a set. So I know I'm almost always behind here. On the other hand I just can't fold top pair top kicker with a nut flush draw to boot. I mean my best hope is he has KJ with a 2nd to the nuts flush draw which I crush but that's such a narrow range we can all but eliminate that.

    I knew I was almost always behind here, but with the TPTK and the nut flush draw to go with it, I felt I had to shove. I think calling and giving up on turn if it bricks would have been a really bad play as well, so the only thing to do is go all in and hope the deck has mercy on me.

    Hero shoves his remaining stack for 122bb. Villain calls his remaining stack for 93bb

    Villain shows 9d 10d for flopped flush

    Pot is 190.5bb after rake

    Turn is 4h

    River is 2d

    Hero wins 190.5bb pot

    Maybe if I have a nut flush draw + TP I should only be doing it on boards that are 2 to a flush boards, instead of 3 to a flush boards? I feel the spot was really sticky and the only reason I shoved here was because I had the nut flush draw as well as the TPTK.
  2. #2
    I think that shoving is bad here. If his range is flushes and sets then yes we're behind. Shoving when behind is bad, we have enough equity to call the flop and re-evaluate the turn. If turn pairs the board then we can safely fold or semi-bluff shove as he will have many more flushes than sets. That would require history though and is a non-standard play. I think flatting flop is best choice given your range you assigned him.

    EV calcs. I need to do as many of these as I can so lets see..
    effective stacks are 93BBs
    villain is 48/21 over 50 hands so that's probably closer to 35/15 in the long run. ill give him a flatting range of mostly suited connector types and PPs. (excluding QQ+ and AK as even most fish with raise those)
    his preflop range is {22+,A2s+,K3s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A5o+,K9o+,Q 9o+,J9o+,T9o}

    flop : 6d Jd 5d

    if villain only x/r sets and flushes his range is now.
    {JsJc,6h6s,6h6c,6s6c,5h5s,5h5c,5s5c,KdQd,KdTd,QdTd ,Kd9d,Qd9d,Td9d,Kd8d,Qd8d,Td8d,9d8d,Kd7d,Qd7d,Td7d ,9d7d,8d7d,Kd4d,Kd3d}

    we have 30.3% equity vs that range.

    villain starts with 93, calls 4.5 pre, x/r to 28 on the flop. his stack is 60.5. and we need to call 19 to win 51.5 ( 19/(19+51.5)) is 26%. we need 26% to make calling the x/r profitable. we have 30.3 so we should call.

    turn is 4h

    villain shoves his remaining 60.5 into a pot of 70.5 leaving us calling 60.5 to win 131.( 60.5/(60.5+131)) is 31%. we need 31% to call and only have 16%. we should fold turn.

    if we shove the flop, were not folding out any of his range. I mean if he makes a specific play and his entire range is nutted then shoving is just burning money. bet/call flop and fold on brick turns is the correct play IF he is always nutted when he x/r. anything else is spew IMO
    Last edited by acg123; 05-27-2016 at 06:31 AM.
    "The harder you work, the luckier you get." ~ courtesy of my fortune cookie from china king

    "One of the best pieces of advice I've ever read in this forum was three words long...

    bet fucking fold." Ong
  3. #3
    Meh, I mean if we're folding here, we're exploitably folding almost everything. That said, villains just don't mess about multiway without a big hand (and especially not this guy) and we block a bunch of his semi bluffs, so we're not looking too great here.

    The problem we have if we call is that we just won't get paid on turn if we hit, as the flush is too obvious. Plus we're in a world of pain if the board pairs.
  4. #4
    No need to shove flop imo. I have no intention of folding, but shoving will only get called by better. You already have TP and you already have the nut draw, so just call.

    What's the point of position if you can't just call IP?

    You want to keep in his random stuff like 99d, QdJx or whatever else he has that might just be monkey raising and would fold to a jam.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  5. #5
    The fact we have TPTK means very little considering we were raised on a mono flop while blocking NFD. I would treat this hand as a pure flush draw with low implied odds.

    There is nothing wrong with calling the flop raise. I can possibly fold turn if villain makes it big, though I probably call turn bets and try to squeeze some value out of his flushes when we get there.

    I think shoving flop here is a disaster. It's a frustrated reaction to being raised when we feel like we flopped the nuts and suddenly realise we didn't, and don't really know how to play the hand out.

    When you shove flop, you have to ask the question "what can villain call", and if there's nothing in his range that's worse than what you're shoving with, then it's a bluff and you better hope he folds a lot.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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