Sudden river donk-jam, always a fold?

Barely any hands on villain, 55/36 with 20% 3bet but probably too early to say he's a maniac, could be almost any player type I guess on a little heater over so few hands (13). I'm going to say he's an unknown for the purposes of discussion.

Anyone feel like he can do this often enough with 2 pair, sets or a busted flush even on this river to want to look him up?

Also, how many queens can he have? But even if he can't have many, does he do this with worse?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $14.55 (58.2 bb)
SB: $29.19 (116.8 bb)
BB: $43.89 (175.6 bb)
UTG: $37.99 (152 bb)
MP: $33.92 (135.7 bb)
Hero (CO): $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K K
UTG raises to $0.75, MP folds, Hero raises to $2.25, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.85) 4 J T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3, UTG calls $3

Turn: ($10.85) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.25, UTG calls $5.25

River: ($21.35) K (2 players)
UTG bets $27.49

(Hero has $14.50 behind, calling to win $35ish getting 2.5:1).

It's almost as if knowing our range in this spot is really really helpful, but I couldn't imagine that's possible. Too GTO for 25NL.

I can't bring myself to fold top set OTR against unknown who just showed up.
c/c,c/c, donk-shove is a fish's favorite way to play a flopped set. And they'll do it even when the runout is horrible for their hand.
*sigh*
If he was drawing OTT, it's unlikely Hero pays off his implied odds, if that's any consolation.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

It's almost as if knowing our range in this spot is really really helpful, but I couldn't imagine that's possible. Too GTO for 25NL.

How is knowing Hero's range more helpful than knowing Villain's range? If Villain is unknown to Hero, then Hero is unknown to Villain. How can Villain put Hero on a calling range with any accuracy?

Originally Posted by ImSavy

It's almost as if knowing our range in this spot is really really helpful, but I couldn't imagine that's possible. Too GTO for 25NL.

Nah it's not that big a deal to know our range here. Just fold everything that's not a queen and you're playing perfectly vs this.

@Savy: Please give me your definition of balance. Obv., I'm not talking about anything other than poker. I just want to know exactly what you mean by balance. I am quite certain we are thinking of the different things when using that word.

Because, it seems to me, that if you try to do anything other than an alpha-value based decision when facing all-in shoves, then you're throwing away monies every time, with no long-term benefit to calling otherwise.

If your hand (meaning any single hand in your range) will win against at least alpha of Villain's range, then it's a +EV call. If you fold a hand with at least that much equity, or call with a hand with less, then it's a worse play. This scenario is perfectly straightforward, and Hero's range is irrelevant, because only his hand and Villain's range matter now.

Edit wait this is a 3-bet pot totally misread action.

Nevertheless i think he can have a god bit of Qx here.

QQ - 6 combos
AQ - 16 combos
KQ - 3 combos
QJs - 3 combos

that's a load of combos. Some fish say fuck it and jam a load of two pair/sets here too but your hand blocks the shit out of two pair. He has virtually no busto fds that don't contain a Q or a pair. Think it'd be tough to get anywhere near 29% equity when he has all those combos of Qx and is more likely to play them this way than he is the other stuff.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

If your hand (meaning any single hand in your range) will win against at least alpha of Villain's range, then it's a +EV call. If you fold a hand with at least that much equity, or call with a hand with less, then it's a worse play.

This is the trouble with this hand - I'm not sure what to call an "average" range for doing this, given that he's an unknown. Against a fish, it's an arguable call getting 2.5:1, against a tighter player he's never doing it without Qx. I dunno, I guess Carroters is right - I couldn't find a fold at the time (because of what MMM said about fish and flopped sets, plus just spazz from a possible maniac), but I think it definitely should be a fold against an unknown.

Originally Posted by Carroters

Edit wait this is a 3-bet pot totally misread action.

Yeah, that was part of the reason I acted like a massive station here too - I figured he couldn't have too many queens, but I still tend to think an unknown can't really do it often enough without Qx to be worth calling even getting 2.5:1

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Yeah, that was part of the reason I acted like a massive station here too - I figured he couldn't have too many queens, but I still tend to think an unknown can't really do it often enough with Qx to be worth calling even getting 2.5:1

He has shitloads of Qs. If he's a spazzy fish which he defo looks to be even over this sample then he has lots of Qx, if he's not then he's very unlikely to jam worse. Catch 22.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

How is knowing Hero's range more helpful than knowing Villain's range? If Villain is unknown to Hero, then Hero is unknown to Villain. How can Villain put Hero on a calling range with any accuracy?

It's not more helpful, however it's something we have control over. Knowing an unknowns range in this spot just isn't possible unfortunately.

And my first post says nothing about balance, it was a joke. Clearly knowing your own range and trying to play GTO are not even close to being the same thing.

Sudden river donk-jam, always a fold?

At these stakes, yes.

Unless you have the nuts (obviously).

OK so if he calls the 3bet preflop with [QQ-22, AQs+, AKo, KQs, KQo] (is this way too loose for an unknown???) then flop c/c range is overpairs, diamond draws, OESDs, sets and AKo with Ad:

[QQ, JJ, TT, 44, AhKh, AdKd, AsKs, AdQd, AhKd, AhKs, AcKh, AcKd, AcKs, AdKh, AdKc, AdKs, AsKh, AsKd, KQs, KQo]

Turn is tough to assign a c/c range, because it varies so much with player type - a fish might continue to slowplay a set, but even a fish is likely raising turn so I'm going to weight it and give him half the sets to c/c turn with, and also say he'll slowplay half the made straights.

Turn c/c [QQ, JhJc, JhJd, TsTh, 4h4c, 4s4h, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, KdQh, KdQs]

So if he then jams all the sets he did slowplay and all the straights:

[QQ, JhJc, JhJd, TsTh, 4h4c, 4s4h, AdQd, KdQd, KdQh, KdQs]

We're ahead of:

[JJ,TT,44] (exactly one third of his range)

and we're being value towned by

[QQ, AdQd, KdQd, KdQh, KdQs] (exactly 2/3 of his range)

So even getting 2.5:1 and needing 28% equity, it's really thin, and I think it's not difficult to find a fold.

Originally Posted by Carroters

He has shitloads of Qs. If he's a spazzy fish which he defo looks to be even over this sample then he has lots of Qx, if he's not then he's very unlikely to jam worse. Catch 22.

Yeah, makes sense. Only a fish can jam worse, but a fish can have better often.

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Sudden river donk-jam, always a fold?

At these stakes, yes.

Unless you have the nuts (obviously).

Word.

Gotta remember the basics, think I levelled myself badly here thinking "how often can he really have a Q", but when he jams, I guess we can pretty much call his range [Qx].

The times I've looked this up it was always the rivered nuts. Even so with less than a psb behind I don't hate calling with top set. Probably that's bad though.

Originally Posted by abelardx

The times I've looked this up it was always the rivered nuts. Even so with less than a psb behind I don't hate calling with top set. Probably that's bad though.

Yeah, this is the trouble - we're both thinking "too little behind to fold", but as you said, it's basically _always_ the nuts (for all practical purposes).

The problem is that this particular turn card ensures that EVERY Qx that called the flop now get to the river. So that sucks pretty hard!

Looks like he got there on the river and didn't want to risk a checkback. Without seeing him bomb the river before on missed draws this is a fold all day.

ya, it always seems like the villian is going after missed value

its like they played some random hand and it got there and they couldnt get you to give them more value

also think this varies by stakes- while it is prob true at low stakes dont think its true with isuldur1