steal J9s, flop fd vs reg

villain is reg 25-22-7, sticky in pots, fold to flop and turn cbets 43% and 50% respectively, bet flop vs missed cbet of 40%.
what's my plan?

5 Players

Stacks:
UTG 110bb
daven (CO) 100bb
BTN 117bb
SB 294bb
BB 96bb

Pre-Flop: daven is CO
1 fold, daven raises to 3bb, BTN calls 2 folds

Flop: (7bb, 2 players)
what to do?

Seems like a bet/bet/bet, unless the run-out sucks. I'm going to be cbetting an ace high board oop with initiative close to 100% HU because the fold equity is just too great on the flop and it's going to be very difficult for villain to call down three streets if/when you fire them. The bonus here is that you have good equity when called and villain can sometimes turn 2pr or trips when we turn or river our flush.

I'm conscious that I'm barely winning these days though and it's probably because of some of these lines I take, so will be interesting to see what others think.

Well we can exclude JJ+,AKs,AKo so i think his range is AQs-A9s,pps lower than jacks, KQs, maybe a couple suited connectors. If we bet hes calling all his aces, 55-TT, folding kqs and s.c.s that dont have a f.d. if we check he bets probably his stronger aces,his pps, and his air. I think x/r is a option as hes going to be folding a big chunk of his betting range that will bet when checked to, but just call when we bet. If he 3bets flop i think we can safely fold aswell because i dont see him 3b flop with worse fds because the board is so dry.

What's his fold to river?

bet/bet and re-eval based on his fold to river seems fine to me.

I'm guessing the 25-22 are VP and PFR but is the 7 3Bet? Aggression? (and is that a standard format I should expect to see again?)
Is it safe to assume his BTN stats are a bit wider if he's a "reg"?
Do you have a table image of your own to consider?

[Flop]I like acg's Check-Raise here but for that pesky 40% so Flop definitely looks like a bet (unless there's reason to modify that 40%).
Bet/Fold (assuming more than min-raise) as you're almost certainly behind and unlikely to dislodge him at that point with total domination being painfully possible.

[Turn] The 50% FtTCB seems to indicate firing again.

[River] If he still with you at this point and you haven't filled your flush (/backdoor trips) I'd let it go.
You haven't given any relevant stats and I don't even know the general environment but from his FCB stats he's down to 30% of his flop-seeing hands without counting the ones he would have raised so he's likely to have hit something and may well have enough to call/raise especially if he puts you on a busted draw ...I see you did call him "sticky" so there you go.
You should probably look to hands which have some SD value to bluff on the river unless you want to be the guy who always bets the River.


I'm curious what you actually did.

My first thought is to b/f flop and turn, re-eval river(probably check/fold and rely on the EV of the hand prior to that street). I´d definitely bet larger than standard the flop(6bb), to make a standard cbet turn(around 2/3 pot) when we miss.

B/f / B/f / Eval would be my standard, adjusting from there based on tendencies.

43% F2Cb and 50% F2TCb doesn't change my mind on that (doesn't sound that sticky, especially for someone with a 25 VPIP). Also, his small VPIP/PFR split (assuming this is a large sample) makes me think he probably flats pretty narrow and static ranges from all positions, which would make most of his range PPs and strong SCs, which doesn't play well at all in the face of barrels on this board.

Flop can be a x/r sometimes, but not really against someone who only bets 40% when you waive your cbet. Flop can also be a b/3b against quite a few regs, but again, I'm not sure how much he's adjusting his preflop/flop play in COvBU. Turn can be a x/r if villain floats a lot, especially in COvBU, but I'm more inclined to do that with a hand that makes something better than the 4th nuts on the river. Etc.

Originally Posted by surviva316

Flop can be a x/r sometimes, but not really against someone who only bets 40% when you waive your cbet.
valid point, when he checks back flop we lose a lot of control as he can widen his calling range with only two bets to come.

Flop can also be a b/3b against quite a few regs, but again, I'm not sure how much he's adjusting his preflop/flop play in COvBU.

true, especially on this texture, I like raising textures like this when im in villains seat, it puts an immense pressure on hero to show up with a Ace and makes it uncomfortable to play OOP. i would raise with hands that cant call 3 streets for value. like small PPs or SCs with a straight draw to the nut. 67,57. since i have more of those hands in my range than you have aces you will either have to call down light or give me the monies..

Turn can be a x/r if villain floats a lot, especially in COvBU, but I'm more inclined to do that with a hand that makes something better than the 4th nuts on the river. Etc.

interesting...i never really thought about using this .. well played! learn something everyday.

b