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To spew or not to spew... suited junk vs donkey
PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com
Button ($7.15)
SB ($5.16)
BB ($5.03)
UTG ($6.15)
Hero (MP) ($10.95)
CO ($6.32)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 2, 3
UTG raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 4 folds
Flop: ($0.37) 4, Q, 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.23, Hero raises to $0.70, UTG calls $0.47
Turn: ($1.77) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.15, UTG calls $1.15
River: ($4.07) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets ?
Ok so I have a note on this villain... "fish openshove A79r flop for 100bb in 3b pot as pfr"
So I'm calling pre because I have position on the pfr and feel like I can outplay him post flop in big pots. Normally this is a super standard fold unless I'm closing the action and there's plenty of callers, but this hand is an exception based on my note.
Flop is obviously shit, but he doesn't shove. That tells me he folds to a raise. Standard raise based on my reason for calling pre flop. He calls. I'm super confident now that he's drawing, and diamonds appear to be all he can reasonably have.
Turn isn't a diamond. Barreling.
River isn't a diamond, but it's not a great card. I'm likely checking back KQ here (I'd 3b AQ vs this guy so KQ is the top of my non-nutty range) so if I bet river I'm repping thin, basically 44 77 and A6dd, and he likely holds the Ad himself. Still, I feel like I'm committed to my read that he has diamonds, and I'm not expecting him to be all that good at hand reading, so I feel like I should bet... but how much? I obviously want to bet as little as possible while getting folds from his Ax.
Am I just burning money here? Should I anticipate this guy having Qx in his range bearing in mind the note I have on him? Should I be worried about being squeezed pf? I considered the squeeze but then again and utg raise and utg+1 call is not really an ideal squeezing spot imo, so I felt confident that only premiums will inflate the pot further.
I expect some stick for this hand, don't hold back!
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