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Shoving flushdraw over 3better's flop c-bet

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  1. #1
    Join Date
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    Default Shoving flushdraw over 3better's flop c-bet

    Another fictional hand. No reads.
    ----------------
    10NL 6-max

    UTG ($10.00)
    MP ($10.00)
    CO ($10.00)
    Hero (BTN) ($10.00)
    SB ($10.00)
    BB ($10.00)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with 5h 6h
    3 folds, Hero bets $0.40, SB 3b $1.60, BB calls, Hero calls

    Flop: ($4.80) As Kh 2h (3 players)
    SB bets $3.20, BB folds, Hero ???
    ----------------

    equity against {KK+,AQs+,AsJs,A7s,Ah6h,A5s,Ah4h,KhQh,KsQs,9h8h,8h 7h,7h6h,5h4h,4h3h,AQo+,A4o} = 0.34
    EV when Villain calls shove = 0.31*(8.00+5.2)-0.69*8.40 = -1.92
    EV when Villain folds = 8.00;
    Amount of times Villain has to fold to make the shove profitable = 19.3%

    Is shoving acceptable here? What if BB calls? What do we do if BB shoves?
  2. #2
    I'd just fold. Board hits his range hard and he's betting into two opponents, so it's unlikely you have much fold equity. If BB calls still fold. You need two folds now instead of one. If BB shoves fold.

    If you shove SB only needs >24% equity to call. If BB calls and then you shove SB only needs >21% and if SB calls, the BB only needs >17.3%.

    How did you come up with a required fold % of 19.3?
    Erín Go Bragh
  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by seven-deuce View Post
    If you shove SB only needs >24% equity to call.
    You're right in that I majorly overlooked that we're pricing him in as well, so he might not even fold {QQ-JJ} here. That would increase our EV against his calling range, but it still wouldn't be profitable.

    I guess we can only shove profitable here if SB is 3-betting and c-bet/f-ing with stuff like small PP's and non-heart suited connectors one in every five times here, which I don't think the average opponent is going to be doing.

    We would need 39% against his calling range for his call on itself to be profitable. In theory that would be good news because -like you said- he's priced in, but I don't think he has many hands in his range that we beat and that he's simply calling with for potodds. {QQ-33,3h4h,4h5h}.

    Quote Originally Posted by seven-deuce View Post
    How did you come up with a required fold % of 19.3?
    x*8.00-(1-x)*1.92>0
    Last edited by Runge-Kutta; 03-20-2015 at 05:31 AM.
  4. #4
    How do you set up this inequality?

    Fold%*pot - call%*??? > 0

    What's 1.92?
    Erín Go Bragh
  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by seven-deuce View Post
    How do you set up this inequality? Fold%*pot - call%*??? > 0 What's 1.92?
    EV when Villain calls shove. It's in the OP.

    It's just a basic probability tree. If Hero shoves, Villain has two choices; fold or call. Each of those options has a certain probability and a certain EV associated with it. The total EV is the total of these EV's weighted by their probabilities. Perhaps if I write it like this it becomes more clear:
    EV_total = x*8.00+(1-x)*(-1.92)
    Last edited by Runge-Kutta; 03-20-2015 at 05:44 AM.
  6. #6
    You don't really rep a great deal either like {AK, 22} are really going to be the only value shoves and you mightn't be shoving them with a 100% frequency. That's assuming you're never flatting AA-KK preflop and are calling with 22. I would imagine you're going to have fairly high reverse implied odds as well, villain's never getting it in with a worse FD, and when he has AK the Ah will boat him up.
    If your shove range is {AK, 22, JT-76hh} you'd be buffing 33% of the time and Villain's basically never folding. He can call profitably with all his value bets and semi-bluffs like Q4hh.
    Erín Go Bragh
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by seven-deuce View Post
    I would imagine you're going to have fairly high reverse implied odds as well, villain's never getting it in with a worse FD, and when he has AK the Ah will boat him up.
    I'm just realising this doesn't make any sense. What I meant was that your pot equity isn't great so you're going to be more reliant on fold equity to make the play +EV and you don't have any. I can't think of one hand he would bet $3.20 with here and fold to a jam. Fwiw, I would estimate your pot equity to be closer to 28% when called not 34%.

    That's with this bet/call range {AA-KK, AK-AQ, Ah4h, Ah3h} hands like AJ or other Axs combos I'd expect him to check a lot OOP vs two opponents.
    Erín Go Bragh
  8. #8
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Aside from your question, I'd like to point out that a smaller raise pre-flop is better here.

    As for the value of your shove, it comes down to how often the SB is going to fold overall which isn't going to be very often, even with the flush draws a large portion of the time. Take the situation from the SB's perspective and decide how you think he will play the hands in his range and go from there.
  9. #9
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Runge-Kutta View Post
    Another fictional hand. No reads.
    I love good fiction, but this leaves me wanting more.

    Villain has a full 100bb stack at a 6-max table on PokerSiteZ where everyone is sitting with 100bb.
    A) 6-max = loos(ish) player who is probably more troubled by folding a "good" hand than calling a "bad" hand.
    B) His table selection skills suck. Choosing to sit at a table where he's not stack-dominating the person to his right indicates that he's not positionally aware enough to think that matters.
    C) Villain probably lacks strong positional awareness, based on (B).
    D) Any player pool reads you have on PokerSiteZ apply to Villain.

    (You have the skills to use these loose descriptors of villains to your advantage.)

    ***
    Since you have "no reads," what motivates your choices when selecting each hand in Villain's range?

    ***
    (I've been called pretentious lately, so I want to say I mean this as respectful guidance):
    There is never a case where you have "no reads."
    I believe that stipulations to that effect are either lazy or deceptive (perhaps self-deceptive).

    ***
    At any rate, playing 65s on this board requires strong reads, so it's a super easy fold PRE and again OTF.
    Opening 65s when it's folded to you on the BTN is almost always a +EV play, but 0 < EV << 1. It's nearly a 0EV play and a lot of its value comes from stealing the blinds when they both fold.
    Raising 4x when it's folded to you on the BTN is too much. Your range is super-wide and a lot of it is bet-folds... 65s is a b/f.
    It's fine to play IP when one or both blinds call, but when they raise...
    Playing 65s in a 3-bet pot is not a fat value play unless you have a strong read that the blinds are both fish whom play very "face-up" post-flop.

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