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should i bet turn?

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  1. #1

    Default should i bet turn?

    WPN No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) - WPN Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

    Hero (BB) ($10.15)
    UTG ($14.69)
    Button ($11.61)
    SB ($75.26)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 5
    2 folds, SB raises $0.25, Hero calls $0.20

    Flop: ($0.60) 10, 10, 4 (2 players)
    SB bets $0.28, Hero calls $0.28

    Turn: ($1.16) 7 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks

    River: ($1.16) 7 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB calls $0.80

    Total pot: $2.76

    Results below:
    Spoiler:

    SB had 2, A (two pair, tens and sevens).
    Hero had 5, 5 (two pair, tens and sevens).
    Outcome: SB won $2.63


    villain stats: 155 hands vpip:30 PFR:23
    steal:36 from SB 26%
    Cbet flop:80%
    Cbet turn: 33%

    should I bet turn and river? or just not bluff river? obviously I'm never good here I just know that I'm probably getting looked up by all his A highs, whats our river sizing?

    and hello! I'm back after a break woot! woot!
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  2. #2
    I wouldn't bet this turn. I'd also check/fold river, it's unrealistic to expect an ace to fold after turn checks through.

    I get the sense that you bet the river out of frustration that ace high now beats your pair, and you're trying to make it fold. Don't do that. The river is literally the worst in the deck, so just give up. We don't have to try and win every pot.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Yeah. In general, don't bet the turn when the 7 beats your PP. If it was a 2,3,4, then you can fire again at least some of the time.

    It's a matter of the fact that your PP went down in value when an overcard came OTT.

    x/f OTR. Villain's range is not even capped, and for all you know he was trapping OTT. You can only reasonably expect to bluff out Kx- hands from Villain.

    Those preflop stats are probably useless, given 4-handed. How wide do you think Villain's range is PRE?

    Can you trust the 80% C-bet stat in this context? (I'm tempted to)
  4. #4
    I could see me betting this river had villain bet turn then checked river. I could definitely have a ten or 88/99, A7 too, as well as dead pairs like 55, so I feel my range is strong enough that there's a realistic chance of getting an ace to fold. But not here, not after checking back turn. We look too much like an ace or small pair now, or a made boat. We're super polarised.

    I also think your river sizing looks too much like you want ace high to fold, rather than call, which is why I'd snap ace high to this bet. I'd probably tank call a half pot bet, but I'd definitely be more cautious if it looked like you wanted the call.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    chardrian's Avatar
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    I bet this turn almost everytime - especially vs this villain who cbets flops so often. The 7 isn't a scare card for us at all. This is a hand where I feel we are ahead on that turn a majority of the time, but we are vulnerable so let's bet when ahead and hope to take it down. If called, we check back river, and obv fold to a c/r.

    Hero bet river here because that is now the only way he can win the hand, but it is a bad bet.
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  6. #6
    I check back this turn because I think my hand has showdown value (currently), better hands are calling with the possible exception of 66, while I don't expect worse to call.

    It's not that I'm scared of the 7, it's just I can't decide if betting turn is supposed to be a value bet or a bluff.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
    I feel like there's more value in calling a river bet after checking turn.

    This river is obviously so horrible that I'm never calling a bet, and I hate an ace too. Other rivers will be considered though.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #8
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Im definitely betting turn for value but also totally fine with just ending the hand there with no showdown. I agree we have showdown value on the turn, but I would rather not give a free card here. I agree better hands are calling but I am totally fine with worse hands folding and just taking this nice little 12 BB pot.

    I also totally get your viewpoint and definitely see merit in checking turn and calling good river cards tho.
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  9. #9
    well. I think everyone here is correct. they are all valid arguments. the way it went for me was:

    Pre: I could 3bet. but his fold vs. resteal is 0. * its only 155 hands (3 instances) so I elect to call.

    Flop: I am still decent vs his range and plan on calling a cbet as he is cbetting 80% flop and 33% turn. my instincts tell me if he doesn't make a pair by the turn hes pretty much giving up

    Turn: he gives up. I want to bet as I feel I am ahead of his range. but......what if I get x/r? does he x/r draws on this board? I would. I have showdown value so I feel like that is a mistake. then.....what if I check...and the comes shit or the board pairs again and he checks..will he fold to a bet? if he leads river I can easily fold. fuck...timer...bet...check..idk...check and eval. river.

    River.: well fml...he has so much air here..tons of A, K, Q , and J high. 3 to 1 says doesn't have A high and will fold. bet.

    now I see where my biggest mistake was. OTT, when I questioned my instinct. my first thought was bet, then after contemplation I changed to check. I did some stove work and wanted to show you guys and see what you think of my range deduction.

    he steals 26%, which all his stats are blue, ( meaning looser than a standard reg, I have my hud color coded) so I stove 33% as that's probably closer to realistic.

    steal range:22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A2o+,K9o+,Q 9o+,J9o+ 33% ( not exactly as I dint use the slider, I chose hands I felt villain will open based on his stats)

    cbet range: 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo

    turn check range:99-88,66-55,33-22,AJs+,A9s-A8s,A6s-A5s,A3s-A2s,KJs+,K9s,QJs,Q9s,J9s,AJo+,A9o-A8o,A6o-A5o,A3o-A2o,KJo+,K9o,QJo
    that's being a little tight as well. most 10nl players will bet 99 and possibly 88.

    turn stove:

    63,096 games 0.000 secs 12,619,200 games/sec

    Board: Ts Td 4c 7c
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 25.399% 25.19% 00.21% 15894 132.00 { 99-88, 66-55, 33-22, AJs+, A9s-A8s, A6s-A5s, A3s-A2s, KJs+, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AJo+, A9o-A8o, A6o-A5o, A3o-A2o, KJo+, K9o, QJo }

    Hand 1: 74.601% 74.39% 00.21% 46938 132.00 { 55 }

    a clear betting situation.

    river equity is 5.23%

    combos:
    9 suited aces(36 combos), 9 off-suit aces( 144 combos)
    3 off suit kinds(48 combos), 3 suited kings(12 combos)
    1 off suited queen(16 combos), 2 suited queens(8 combos)
    1 suited Jack(4 combos)
    5 pairs( 30 combos)
    55 - ( 1 combos)

    299 total combos

    hands ahead on turn: 18 combos
    hands behind on the turn: 280 combos.

    On the river:
    if he folds everything but A high and 99,88. that means he call with 192 combos and folds 107 combos. 35.7% he folds, and he calls 64.2%.

    hes not folding enough for my bet to even be profitable on the river. right? how do I determine my bet sizing if in a perfect world and we knew those were going to be his exact actions for his range?
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  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by chardrian View Post
    Im definitely betting turn for value but also totally fine with just ending the hand there with no showdown. I agree we have showdown value on the turn, but I would rather not give a free card here. I agree better hands are calling but I am totally fine with worse hands folding and just taking this nice little 12 BB pot.

    I also totally get your viewpoint and definitely see merit in checking turn and calling good river cards tho.
    I normally find myself agreeing with you after considering the hand further, but here I'm really struggling to see where the value is coming from. I do get the desire to end the hand now, but I feel that if there's no worse hands calling, and no better hands folding, then we're clearly making a losing bet in order to win a pot that we probably win at showdown anyway, while taking away his chance to stab the river. There's five cards I don't want to see on river, and even when I do see them it doesn't cost me anything more. I've no problem giving a free card here.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  11. #11
    now I see where my biggest mistake was. OTT, when I questioned my instinct.
    No, the biggest mistake was betting river. The turn decision is marginal, the river decision isn't.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  12. #12
    I think I'm happy to check this turn back because I think villain's hand is practically face up... his range is heavily weighted towards Ax. That allows me to play the hand on the river almost perfectly... I'm only really ever going to pay off when he hits his kicker, or if he's trapping.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I normally find myself agreeing with you after considering the hand further, but here I'm really struggling to see where the value is coming from. I do get the desire to end the hand now, but I feel that if there's no worse hands calling, and no better hands folding, then we're clearly making a losing bet in order to win a pot that we probably win at showdown anyway, while taking away his chance to stab the river. There's five cards I don't want to see on river, and even when I do see them it doesn't cost me anything more. I've no problem giving a free card here.
    It's about folding out equity mostly & a side bonus is being able to bet more rivers as a result of betting more turns.

    You're looking at hands we're better/worse than like it's a one street river situation.

    At the same time he says value bet but I'm not really a huge fan of the whole value/bluff distinction that's common in poker.
  14. #14
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    It's about folding out equity mostly & a side bonus is being able to bet more rivers as a result of betting more turns.

    You're looking at hands we're better/worse than like it's a one street river situation.

    At the same time he says value bet but I'm not really a huge fan of the whole value/bluff distinction that's common in poker.
    I concur. When I said value, all I really meant was that I think we are ahead on the turn a vast majority of the time.
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  15. #15
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I normally find myself agreeing with you after considering the hand further, but here I'm really struggling to see where the value is coming from. I do get the desire to end the hand now, but I feel that if there's no worse hands calling, and no better hands folding, then we're clearly making a losing bet in order to win a pot that we probably win at showdown anyway, while taking away his chance to stab the river. There's five cards I don't want to see on river, and even when I do see them it doesn't cost me anything more. I've no problem giving a free card here.
    My counterpoints:
    1) Our opp is not necessarily going to stab at river
    2) Our opp is not necessarily folding worse (I have seen lots of players refuse to fold Ax hands here and against the right opp that would actually be a correct call)
    3) On pretty much any river except for 6-, we are likely going to check back even if it is checked to us, so let's get our bet in on the turn.
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  16. #16
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by acg123 View Post
    hes not folding enough for my bet to even be profitable on the river. right? how do I determine my bet sizing if in a perfect world and we knew those were going to be his exact actions for his range?
    wowsas - lots of work you put into that hand. I'm not sure what you are asking. If you are asking what should we bet if we know that he is calling 64% of the time and folding the rest, then the answer I would think, would be to bet one chip.
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  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    At the same time he says value bet but I'm not really a huge fan of the whole value/bluff distinction that's common in poker.
    Ok, but it's important to recognise where the value is coming from.

    If it's not from the better hands folding, or the worse hands calling, then it can only be from the dead money itself. We already have around 90% equity here, against his Ax anyway, so we're essentially trying to steal his 10% equity. How many times do we need to be successful at this before we pay for the times he calls his better hands?

    I remain unconvinced that betting turn is profitable.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  18. #18
    Our opp is not necessarily folding worse
    This would be the only thing that really can turn me. I think I'd want to have specific reads that villain is c/c'ing Ax here on the turn, or at least that he doesn't like folding. It's hard to make that call either way based on hero's reads.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  19. #19
    My counterpoints:
    1) Our opp is not necessarily going to stab at river
    2) Our opp is not necessarily folding worse (I have seen lots of players refuse to fold Ax hands here and against the right opp that would actually be a correct call)
    3) On pretty much any river except for 6-, we are likely going to check back even if it is checked to us, so let's get our bet in on the turn.
    I would counter 1 and 3 by suggesting that these factors bring down the ev of checking, but never below ev=0 obviously, wheras I'm arguing that betting turn is outright -ev because we're not stealing enough equity to counter the top of his range.

    If I can be convinced there's value in betting, that he can call Ax, then that might tip the balance.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by chardrian View Post
    wowsas - lots of work you put into that hand. I'm not sure what you are asking. If you are asking what should we bet if we know that he is calling 64% of the time and folding the rest, then the answer I would think, would be to bet one chip.
    if pot is $1.16 then betting .35 on the river will have us lose .35 x 64 (-$22.40) and win 1.16 x 36 (41.76) or +0.19 EV. correct? or no?
    "The harder you work, the luckier you get." ~ courtesy of my fortune cookie from china king

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  21. #21
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by acg123 View Post
    if pot is $1.16 then betting .35 on the river will have us lose .35 x 64 (-$22.40) and win 1.16 x 36 (41.76) or +0.19 EV. correct? or no?
    correct. but this means nothing in terms of game play. because with these same calcs if we were to bet one penny then we get:
    .01 x .64= -.0064 and 1.16 x .36 = .4176; .4176-.0064= +.41 EV.
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  22. #22
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    We already have around 90% equity here, against his Ax anyway, so we're essentially trying to steal his 10% equity.
    It's actually more like we have 80% and we are trying to steal 20% equity - I would give my opp 9 outs here (Any A, 7, or his kicker). There is also value in not having to show your cards down at a showdown.
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  23. #23
    Well according to my best poker friend, I'm easily one of the worst poker players in his immediate circle and I should never give advice to other players, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt.

    I think that if you're going to bluff, it is better to bluff the turn, than the river. And here's why, because if you bluff the turn, then villain has to worry about another bet coming on the river. Now if I bluffed turn here and got that card for a river I'm most certainly giving up. However you have "leverage" with a turn bluff, particularly when you have position on them, as opposed to a river bluff since there's no more threat of bets to come. But 8bb for a 10bb pot on river, I'm calling you down with all of my Ace highs on that board.

    Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but given that he has an overpair to the 4, he perhaps could have raised the flop cbet if we knew villain was cbetting his entire range including all his Ace highs, to defend your hand and taken the pot down earlier and fold out his equity in the hand without having to see showdown and risk getting sucked out on. If villain is calling raises oop with Ace high's and only 1 over to the board, that's note worthy even if you still lose the hand.

    On that board and on that river, I just don't see you folding out much that's better, Q high, J high perhaps, pocket 6's, in other words, a very narrow range of better hands you could get to fold. Virtually everything beats you here and an A which makes up a lot of villains range is always calling you here.

    I understand your thinking is the only way you're going to win this pot is if you bluff, but I like to think that I probably would have given up on the pot given that I don't even make a qualifying hand at showdown.

    Anyways I hope I'm not overly critical, I have difficulty with this game too.
    Last edited by JimmyS1985; 05-23-2016 at 05:48 AM.
  24. #24
    i find that players in general will call a turn bet more often then a river bet. raising the flop cbet is fine if you intend to turn your hand into a bluff but u have to assume you're behind if he calls. the river is just a nasty card. as it essentially turns hero's hand into 5 high
    Last edited by grumpy64; 05-23-2016 at 07:35 AM.
  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by chardrian View Post
    It's actually more like we have 80% and we are trying to steal 20% equity - I would give my opp 9 outs here (Any A, 7, or his kicker). There is also value in not having to show your cards down at a showdown.
    It's hard, perhaps impossible, to quantify the value of not showing down though. I'm not even sure it has any value against an opponent who is inept when it comes to adapting and exploiting.

    You're right about his equity though, I'm neglecting to consider that he has a higher kicker than a 5 most of the time, which does indeed give him more equity that I'm giving him. I remain unconvinced we're stealing enough equity though, considering that a 60c turn bet is an attempt to steal 22c, assuming 20% equity for villain.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  26. #26
    I really feel that he needs to be calling Ax/22/33 to a turn bet at least some of the time before we can profitably bet the turn.

    I feel that if I'm wrong to check the turn, it's because I'm underestimating how often he calls these hands.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    It's about folding out equity mostly & a side bonus is being able to bet more rivers as a result of betting more turns.

    You're looking at hands we're better/worse than like it's a one street river situation.

    At the same time he says value bet but I'm not really a huge fan of the whole value/bluff distinction that's common in poker.
    Nice post. Folding out villain's equity is good and it prevents us being effectively bluffed off the river by a competent villain. Villain rarely has anything that beats us at this point too.
  28. #28
    Folding out equity is all very well and good, but if he has 20%, and we're stabbing at half pot, well villain's equity is around 20c, the bet is around 60c, so we need three times more folds than calls, assuming he always folds worse and always continues with better.

    Hmm. I might finally be seeing where the value is. I can't see him calling 33%+ here.

    edit - bad maths, 3:1 ratio would mean he needs to call only 25% for us to lose money by betting.

    Still, I'm not sure he even has that many calls. I think I'm wrong here. At least I can see why though, my argument hasn't been in vain.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 05-23-2016 at 10:47 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  29. #29
    I don't care about him bluffing river, in fact I encourage it because that's why I'm checking turn. I'm only really going to get bluffed off when the river is an ace and he finds a bet with a king.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  30. #30
    Think betting turn is fine. We might even get called by AJ-AK type stuff on turn.

    River run out sucks and you are getting called by Ax imo to any regular sizing. If I bet I'm gonna overbet here... and even that I'm not sure is good. Thinking player might still hero cal you but you might get Ax folds by less stubborn players.
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