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well. I think everyone here is correct. they are all valid arguments. the way it went for me was:
Pre: I could 3bet. but his fold vs. resteal is 0. * its only 155 hands (3 instances) so I elect to call.
Flop: I am still decent vs his range and plan on calling a cbet as he is cbetting 80% flop and 33% turn. my instincts tell me if he doesn't make a pair by the turn hes pretty much giving up
Turn: he gives up. I want to bet as I feel I am ahead of his range. but......what if I get x/r? does he x/r draws on this board? I would. I have showdown value so I feel like that is a mistake. then.....what if I check...and the comes shit or the board pairs again and he checks..will he fold to a bet? if he leads river I can easily fold. fuck...timer...bet...check..idk...check and eval. river.
River.: well fml...he has so much air here..tons of A, K, Q , and J high. 3 to 1 says doesn't have A high and will fold. bet.
now I see where my biggest mistake was. OTT, when I questioned my instinct. my first thought was bet, then after contemplation I changed to check. I did some stove work and wanted to show you guys and see what you think of my range deduction.
he steals 26%, which all his stats are blue, ( meaning looser than a standard reg, I have my hud color coded) so I stove 33% as that's probably closer to realistic.
steal range:22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A2o+,K9o+,Q 9o+,J9o+ 33% ( not exactly as I dint use the slider, I chose hands I felt villain will open based on his stats)
cbet range: 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo
turn check range:99-88,66-55,33-22,AJs+,A9s-A8s,A6s-A5s,A3s-A2s,KJs+,K9s,QJs,Q9s,J9s,AJo+,A9o-A8o,A6o-A5o,A3o-A2o,KJo+,K9o,QJo
that's being a little tight as well. most 10nl players will bet 99 and possibly 88.
turn stove:
63,096 games 0.000 secs 12,619,200 games/sec
Board: Ts Td 4c 7c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.399% 25.19% 00.21% 15894 132.00 { 99-88, 66-55, 33-22, AJs+, A9s-A8s, A6s-A5s, A3s-A2s, KJs+, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AJo+, A9o-A8o, A6o-A5o, A3o-A2o, KJo+, K9o, QJo }
Hand 1: 74.601% 74.39% 00.21% 46938 132.00 { 55 }
a clear betting situation.
river equity is 5.23%
combos:
9 suited aces(36 combos), 9 off-suit aces( 144 combos)
3 off suit kinds(48 combos), 3 suited kings(12 combos)
1 off suited queen(16 combos), 2 suited queens(8 combos)
1 suited Jack(4 combos)
5 pairs( 30 combos)
55 - ( 1 combos)
299 total combos
hands ahead on turn: 18 combos
hands behind on the turn: 280 combos.
On the river:
if he folds everything but A high and 99,88. that means he call with 192 combos and folds 107 combos. 35.7% he folds, and he calls 64.2%.
hes not folding enough for my bet to even be profitable on the river. right? how do I determine my bet sizing if in a perfect world and we knew those were going to be his exact actions for his range?
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