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Rivered Boat 200bb deep

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  1. #1
    Vinland's Avatar
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    Default Rivered Boat 200bb deep

    Villain had played about 5/7 hands at the table so its likely he is fishy.

    He over shoves the river, I have to give him credit for at least a King. I hate overcalling like this; calling $3.55 to possibly chop a $4.80 pot.
    Can we assume an unknown should be bad enough that he may do this with 99 or any K?

    Holdem Manager No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Holdem Manager Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

    SB ($4.43)
    BB ($0.69)
    UTG ($2.20)
    UTG+1 ($1.51)
    MP1 ($0.68)
    MP2 ($1.11)
    Hero (CO) ($4.14)
    Button ($2)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with J, K
    1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, 1 fold, SB calls $0.05, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.04

    Flop: ($0.20) 3, 9, K (3 players)
    SB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.02, Hero raises to $0.14, SB calls $0.14, 1 fold

    Turn: ($0.50) K (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $0.36, SB calls $0.36

    River: ($1.22) 3 (2 players)
    SB bets $3.56, Hero ?
    I won't believe their lies - I can still see through these eyes
  2. #2
    Hey Bro - Back to 2nl I see. I haven't been checking the BC lately (just reading blogs). The whole BF situation sucks, but your location says Canada. Did you just quit playing for a while for your own reasons? Man, I'm dying to get back into it but I don't see the point being in the US. I'm tempted to try something though. Good to see you're still around. GL!

    Regarding the hand, wtf are you worried about? It looks like a chop or you're gonna take a nice pot.
    Last edited by PlayToWin; 08-10-2013 at 04:10 AM.
    Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991
  3. #3
    How many combos are you losing to and how many do you beat or chop with? Does this give you the odds to call?

    A fish would definitely play Kx this way btw.
  4. #4
    It's not so much the amount of handcombo's here as it is the weights to them (likeliness). Don't feel like writing it out as a nice text so here are my thoughts:

    He played 5/7 very small sample size but we can already reasonably assume he's not just a nit nutcamper.

    The tone of your post seems to indicate you lost.

    There is some percentage spazz here but super unlikely because even a fish should realize that you're not laying down what you seem to be having on this board evolution. I'm not sure how they spazz at 2NL though.

    It sucks to call for a chop. Even a fish probably won't shove 99 here. But it is possible if he is a horrible boardreader.

    About 33/K9 you lose to: if he insta-shoves, it's more likely he has K9. If it took a bit before he shoved he's more likely to have 33 (the board changed drastically for him on the river).

    He should perceive every Kx as the nuts so he can shove all those hands.

    It's a weird line for both K9/33 but maybe people do use these kinds of oddball slowplays at 2NL i dunno.

    You need to be right 3.27/(3.27*2+1.22)= 42% of the time.

    Call and add the result to your mental database with regards to him and also how people like him at 2NL play the hand the way he played it.
    Last edited by jackvance; 08-10-2013 at 07:58 AM. Reason: also, come play WW again!
  5. #5
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    I think you are always beat or chopping. Ima fold.
  6. #6
    The classic nut line from a fish oop... x/c, x/c, overbet donk jam river.
  7. #7
    Vinland's Avatar
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    ^I tend to agree with this statement but given this board, the nuts to him might be a few things...

    Giving him 99, 33 and all Kx hands I have about 48%

    The problem i see is calling $3.55 to chop the vast majority of the time. I only win if he has 99 and I lose it all if he has 33 or K9.
    Perhaps the risk:reward is too high?
    I won't believe their lies - I can still see through these eyes
  8. #8
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    call, he has aces/99 about as often as K9/33
  9. #9
    Not folding. Not happy, but it's pretty much impossible for calling to be a mistake. The Kx combos outweigh 33/K9 so dramatically that even if he never ever spazz shoves worse or goes mental with 99, you still have to call. Give him one combo of spazz and you've just made a huge impact on those 4 combos that you lose to, folding is madness.

    If he's actually just a horrendous player, which at this limit is likely enough to be an important consideration, folding is really atrocious.
  10. #10
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    You can call like 33(if you have it), KK, K9 and like AK without getting exploited. If some of his *bluffs* are Kx you can drop some AK. If none are you should add 99 and drop some AK since you block K9.
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