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QQ shove on flop was it good or bad?

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  1. #1

    Default QQ shove on flop was it good or bad?

    $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
    PokerStars
    8 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

    Stacks:
    UTG ($2.37) 119bb
    UTG+1 ($0.89) 45bb
    MP1 ($2.13) 107bb
    MP2 ($1.81) 91bb
    CO ($2.64) 132bb
    BTN ($2) 100bb
    SB ($2.05) 103bb
    BB Hero ($2.29) 115bb

    Pre-Flop: (0.03, 8 players) Hero is BB
    UTG raises to $0.06, 6 folds, Hero raises to $0.18, UTG calls $0.12
    Flop: ($0.37, 2 players)

    Hero bets $0.26, UTG raises to $0.56, Hero goes all-in $2.11, UTG calls $1.55

    Turn: ($4.59, 2), 1 all-in
    River: ($4.59, 2), 1 all-in

    Final Pot: [color=#0000cc]$4.59[/color
  2. #2
    Heres another shove but on the river, I knew he had something but i think I overplayed it and shouldve bet half pot ?

    EMBED THIS HAND

    $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
    PokerStars
    8 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

    Stacks:
    UTG Hero ($2.04) 102bb
    UTG+1 ($2.53) 127bb
    MP1 ($2.19) 110bb
    MP2 ($2.44) 122bb
    CO ($0.77) 39bb
    BTN ($2) 100bb
    SB ($2) 100bb
    BB ($2.62) 131bb

    Pre-Flop: (0.03, 8 players) Hero is UTG
    Hero raises to $0.06, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.06, 5 folds
    Flop: ($0.15, 2 players)

    Hero bets $0.08, MP1 calls $0.08

    Turn: ($0.31, 2)
    Hero checks, MP1 bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.46, MP1 calls $0.31 River: ($1.23, 2)

    Hero goes all-in $1.44, MP1 folds

    Final Pot: $2.67

    Hero wins $2.63 (net +$0.59)

    MP1 lost $0.60
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Reads on Villains?
    What is your own range on each street, in each hand?


    "I knew he had something" is not nearly as helpful as a range.

    Whether or not they have "something" this time is not directly relevant to your bet. Their entire range of hands is what matters.


    I.e. you shipped, they folded... should you have bet less? That question is one of the higher-end and more difficult to answer, as you need not only a sense of Villain's range now, but you need a sense of how that range breaks to different bet-sizes. Then you can calculate your EV with each bet size, and choose the best one.

    It takes a LOT of hands with a specific villain to start making intelligent guesses to that.
    Much easier to start examining your own ranges and how they might break to different bet sizes (and why).

    It never hurts to start by thinking about your own ranges when trying to guess at a villain's ranges.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  4. #4
    No stats I dont have any software. most Villains this one included were playing TAG narrow ranges .

    I can put him on a range now but in the hands I have a hard time putting villains on ranges because the time limit is so fast , I'm sure it gets easier when your more experienced but it sucks right now .

    Once Villain calls on the flop I am thinking most likely Jx, JT,JQ,Jk, maybe TT-88 and calling a c-bet one time to see if I give up or they hit a set. Villain could also have 44 I guess slow playing it or Ax .

    Turn comes an 8c, I check with the intent on check raising here I figured if he had a pair and was going to raise he would call the re-raise especially if it was Jx which was a majority of his range imo. he couldve held a K i guess but was a bit unlikely. Anyways he does bet Turn and I checkraise in which he calls. Once Villain calls the turn I put him on Jx maybe even J8s because of the re-raise call on turn.theres not really any draws out there. River comes and I Shove all in. I wanted to make it look like i was bluffing the river so i came out with an all-in,but after I look at it now it just looks like a strong line since I check raised him . he folded and I feel like i lost value by not betting just half pot .
  5. #5
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    No stats I dont have any software. most Villains this one included were playing TAG narrow ranges .
    I'm of the opinion that stat tracking software is -EV for the vast majority of micro stakes players.

    It's too expensive to justify the cost in terms of your BR and its expected effect on your winrate is too low when playing micro-stakes blinds to recoup the loss. Realistically, a poker tracker may add 2 - 5 bb/100 hands to your winrate. I think that 5's optimistic. Poker trackers are for figuring out whether a thin play is on the meaty or lean side of thin. Those thin plays are close to 0 EV (hence are thin), and wont have a dominant effect on your BR.

    For most players, you don't need the tracker to tell you their VPIP to already know whether they're tight or loose with their starting ranges. You just need to pay attention for a couple orbits to know this. Your insight is better than the computer's numbers until you have 10's of thousands of hands against a single Villain.

    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    I can put him on a range now but in the hands I have a hard time putting villains on ranges because the time limit is so fast , I'm sure it gets easier when your more experienced but it sucks right now .
    That's all I'm asking. I can't really put people on well-defined ranges in my head during live play. I can only trust my gut to guide me in a good direction. The away-from-the-tables study where I practice ranges is what informs that gut, so it does matter.

    It's hard, and it does kinda suck... I mean... it's a lot to navigate and finding confidence is a slow burn.
    Look on the bright side: the fact that you're even occasionally trying to think of ranges away from the tables puts you leagues ahead of the Villains you're facing, and you'll be moving up in the stakes faster because of your dedicated study.

    Try to find a balance between having the discipline to deeply analyze a hand and the discipline to turn off the analytical side of your brain and enjoy the game.

    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    Once Villain calls on the flop I am thinking most likely Jx, JT,JQ,Jk, maybe TT-88 and calling a c-bet one time to see if I give up or they hit a set. Villain could also have 44 I guess slow playing it or Ax .
    There you go. Doesn't have to be perfect, just has to be your best guess. You play the villain as you understand them; you revise as you go.

    Study your own ranges. It gives you the most insight into your opponents' ranges when you can see similarities and differences to your (known) ranges. It feels so good to find a leak in your ranges and then see a Villain express that exact same leak. You probably know exactly why it is a weakness, and how to capitalize on it.


    You gotta bet more when you have the nuts, man. 1/2 PSB when you KNOW you have the best hand is almost never max value at the micros.
    Again, if they're folding too much when you bet big with the goods, then you DO NOT respond by betting smaller when you got the goods. You respond by betting more often when you don't have the goods. You take the bottom combo(s) in your range for that spot and you bet them like the nuts when Villains fold too much. This is known as polarizing your range. You bet the top and bottom of your range the same.
    If Villains are calling too much, then you respond by adding a couple of your next-best combos to the nutted range. This is known as merging your ranges. You're expanding your big betting range to incorporate some of your mid-betting range, because Villains are calling light, so you don't need to be as good to win when they call.

    Showing other villains at the table that you can bluff with air on a river against that one guy who folds too much to big bets OTR is often still +EV (long term) when that guy shows up with a hand and calls you down. The notion that you'd bluff him but not them is not even on their radar. You're just a bluffer in their mind. Gawd this is so money.

    The important thing before you do this is to know your own ranges.
    Just 'cause it feels like you don't have a strong hand in that moment, doesn't mean that hand represents the bottom of your range for that spot.

    Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
    Turn comes an 8c, I check with the intent on check raising here I figured if he had a pair and was going to raise he would call the re-raise especially if it was Jx which was a majority of his range imo. he couldve held a K i guess but was a bit unlikely. Anyways he does bet Turn and I checkraise in which he calls. Once Villain calls the turn I put him on Jx maybe even J8s because of the re-raise call on turn.theres not really any draws out there. River comes and I Shove all in. I wanted to make it look like i was bluffing the river so i came out with an all-in,but after I look at it now it just looks like a strong line since I check raised him . he folded and I feel like i lost value by not betting just half pot .
    I don't see any problems with this, but I'm interested in ong's thoughts. I never played against ong, but I suspect his post-flop game is stronger than mine. His use of board texture to motivate his play is def. a step above mine.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  6. #6
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Here's a decent page on 2+2 talking about stat convergence using my favorite CI estimator for poker stats, the Wilson Score.


    If you look at the post with the graph in it, and read what that post is saying, you'll see what I'm talking about as far as needing 10's of thousands of hands on someone to trust what the computer is telling you is their frequency to do a low-% action.

    Someone else in the thread made a good point that there's not much difference in the estimates of 75% +/- 5% as far as what's in that range. We make basically the same decision whether it's as low as 70% or as high as 80%. However, 9% +/-5% is astronomical error bars for the kind of decision we're trying to make based on that 9%. We'd play very differently against a 4% range than we would against a 14% range.

    Rookies tend to put too much weight on what the poker tracker's stats are telling them, because I don't know of a poker tracker that includes the +/- for a given CI.
    I haven't kept up on poker trackers for many years, though, so maybe some do that, nowadays.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  7. #7
    The QQ hand is fine, J9/JQ/AJ and flush draws all like this flop, but he can also have JTs 88 99 JJ, maybe even Q9s or 79s, so I'm not thrilled to be raised, but we're just too strong to fold and strong enough to get the money in.

    KK, not sure why we're check/raising the turn, we're potentially giving him a free card when he might be drawing to a straight, and we know we pay a straight off it he gets there, so just bet for value. River, we can maybe check/raise now, or we can bet small, or we can bet big. All options seem fine and will depend on the villain.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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