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QJSS, versus fish from MP1

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  1. #1

    Default QJSS, versus fish from MP1

    Villain had stats of VPIP:38 PFR: 14 over 25 hands, not many hands but

    $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
    PokerStars
    8 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

    Stacks:
    UTG ($1.52) 76bb
    UTG+1 ($2.45) 123bb
    MP1 ($2.42) 121bb
    MP2 ($1.78) 89bb
    CO Hero ($2.23) 112bb
    BTN ($0.48) 24bb
    SB ($1.50) 75bb
    BB ($2.07) 104bb

    Pre-Flop: (0.03, 8 players) Hero is CO
    2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.06, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.18, 3 folds, MP1 calls $0.12
    Flop: ($0.39, 2 players)

    MP1 bets $0.19, Hero calls $0.19

    Turn: ($0.77, 2)
    MP1 bets $0.37, Hero calls $0.37 River: ($1.51, 2)

    MP1 bets $0.73, Hero..?

    pre-flop what could Villain open-raise and then call with here ? I gave him 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo

    I somewhat discounted AA-QQ here because I thought he would 4-bet most likely but if hes a fish I'm not sure we can't totally out them I guess. on flop he bets out half pot, what does this say about his range ?

    On The Flop I thought he would do this with his overpair range, like QQ-88, Maybe his AT+ and his suited face-cards. I decide to call was this the right move ? I also thought about raising with the flush-draw but maybe that wasn't the play? If we re-raise here what is going to happen? Are we trying to get anything to fold or are we trying to build a pot with a big hand in this position? Does he have something he will call a raise with and/or if he comes over the top are we forced to fold this?

    on the turn he bets out half pot again and the turn card didn't change much. I don't know what range to give him and am unsure of how to play my hand , again I don't know If I want to make stuff fold, play for a bigger pot or call and see a river.

    I put villain alot of weaker pocket pairs and overcards, for some reason I thought a call here was ok because if hes holding 88,99,TT,JJ,QQ, we had a flushdraw I also thought if we hit a Q or J it would be good forgetting about the range factor that it would give him a set for some of his range. Any Q or J would actually be terrible now that I think about it up against AQ,QK, any J would be terrible up against AJ,KJ. I decided to call and I hit the pair on the river fish bets half pot again . should this be a fold or a call ? should I even be in this position? how else should I have played this hand ?
  2. #2
    On the flop, we get bet at half-pot. he's fish so he could do this with hands including AT+ that hes missed could also be an over-pair 88+ and suited face-cards . I assume we are not getting AA-TT to fold to a re-raise on the flop we could possibly get his suited face-cards to fold that are not suited-spades, and some of his Ace highs as-well but maybe a re-raise would be a poor play but even if villain does have some of the premium hands like AA-QQ If we were to shove it on the flop would it be +EV since we could get him to fold alot of weaker stuff ? and if we do get called by QQ+ we still have 35% chance to win the hand? Or do we want to keep in his worse hands and just call to hit our flush and extract whatever value we can get ?



    his half pot bet on the flop somewhat strikes me as a weak hand and makes me want to raise.Our goal is to not let villain see a card for cheap if he does have Ace-high or over-cards.On the turn here it comes again... another half pot bet, is this typical of weak players to do ? The turn card doesn't change much unless he has a hand like A4..but I havn't given him a range that hits this flop or turn. On the turn with a raise we still won't be getting any over-pairs to fold. We are getting 3:1 but we need 4:1 for a flush . Do we use implied odds here and expect a river bet out of him to make a good call. Are our QJ over-cards any good against his range? for the range I have given him I would think not his range consists of many stronger Q's and J's . The Queen comes and he bets half pot a 3rd time. I mean, the only part of his range I am beating are his weak over-pairs TT-88, maybe if he held A6, and his bluffs of Akss,ATss,A9ss,A3ss but is villain going to bet half pot if he is bluffing on the river I would think not . We are beating a pretty small portion of his range should we fold the river even though we are getting good pot odds to call? something tells me I should'nt be in this position on the river.
    Last edited by DonkeyBets; 01-30-2020 at 02:06 AM.
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    If you want to get this deep into the analysis (I'm stoked that you are), we're going to have to take it in steps.

    You gave a range for Villain to bet OTF. And you pushed it through the sieve of his pre-flop line. Excellent!

    What does his 1/2 PSB donk-bet say about his range?
    That's a question that you have to answer. Is this 1/2 PSB something he does every time? Does he donk-bet into 3 people with 1/2 PSB as a C-bet?
    Given the pre-flop action, can you estimate what % of the time Villain makes this bet?
    We can use that to trim his range PRE a bit more specifically.


    In order to speculate about the EV of raising OTF, we need to speculate how Villain's range breaks, which will probably vary with your bet size.
    If you were to raise, to what amount would you like to raise?
    If you raise to that amount, what hands does villain fold / call / raise back at you with?

    With these answers, we can calculate the EV of a flop raise to the bet-size you've proposed.
    Then we may explore if other bet sizes are better or worse for your EV.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  4. #4
    what can a donk bet signify? I imagine it could mean a few things. Villain could donk bet because he wants to see another card, he could donk bet for value when hes way ahead. Donk betting could mean a draw of some sort, a weak made hand to some level, but when I try to match up his preflop raise/call to his donk bet it seems stronger than just a typical donk bet, this has me thinking he can have an over-pair face-cards or A-high. with only 30 hands I am unsure if donk-betting is something he does often or not.I don't know if I am capable of determining what % of the time villain makes this bet, how do I come up with such estimations?

    I have looked into EV and have seen I was wrong about my statements on the thread where I held A9ss i na 3way pot. It was +EV to shove the flop against either villain I crunched the numbers into this formula

    EV=F($Pot)+C(%W*$W)-C(%L*$L)
    and the answer was a positive one.

    If we are to raise villain on this flop I know it doesn't make much sense given the size of the pot but
    would it be best to just go all in with 2 cards to see instead of 1?If we only raise his bet of $0.20 to $0.60 I don't think we are thrilled to get called if we give him the strong range. The hands that would call the re-raise would be 88+ better flush draws with an A, A3ss, A6 even though its not in the range I gave him if he has top pair top kicker he may call. thats his re-raise calling range .Then we have his 4-betting all-in range if Villain's fishy enough 88+ could come over the top all in. he could shove all in with the nut flush draw+ overcards and JJ+ I think would be a fair over the top.

    we are blocking some of the Ax nut flush draws, he can have AKss,ATss,A9ss. so maybe less likely he shows up with those if he comes over the top, I speculate it would be more realistic to see his over-pairs and only a small portion of nut flushes.

    If I make it $0.60 to go and he calls because hes fish I think he can do this with most of his range which doesn't feel like it gives us much more information to go off of , what do you think about it ?
    Last edited by DonkeyBets; 01-30-2020 at 12:13 PM.
  5. #5
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Argh. I see now that I mis-stated the EV equation in the other thread. What you've posted above is correct.
    Just beware that beating both villains individually is not what you're trying to accomplish with a shove OTF, there. You're trying to beat them concurrently, at the same time. This is a similar case to calculating your bet sizing to open from the BTN to steal the blinds based on the calling frequencies of both blinds combined. There's a square root in that one, IIRC, and thus one of the more frustrating calculations to study in poker.

    ***
    A donk bet will mean different things from different people. I really don't donk bet much at all, and would only do so in a multi-handed pot where I have 2-pair+ OTF and I'm just too nutted to take a chance on giving everyone a free turn card. There's very little of that in my range from MP1(really count it as MP2, since it's 8-handed. It's always about distance from the BTN, not the BB), though, certainly no straight draws on that board. You could safely put me on a pocket pair or NFD. and you block a lot of my range for NFD, and so does the board. At 8-handed, I'm not playing 22-44 without a read that the table will almost certainly pay off a set, so you may discount those combos in my range.
    So my range to donk bet from MP1 (really MP2), is 66+, AKs, but you can rule out KK+, AKs, 'cause I'm gonna bet/raise every opportunity PRE with KK+, AKs. My range PRE is capped when I call.
    ATss is 1 combo that may be in there or not, and when I outflush you, here, it's just a big cooler. It's literally the only FD in my range from PRE that isn't blocked by your hand, and it's not in my default range, only in my adjusted range.

    So my range to donk bet is 66-QQ. 39 combos out of my starting range of ~120 combos. (quick estimates, not using equilab) You wouldn't know the specifics, but you can guess that less than 25% of my range to see the flop will donk-bet that board.
    Maybe I x/c overpairs on that board, too, but your 3-bet PRE makes me think you have a lot of big PP in your range, too, so I'm not as enamored with my 77 - JJ.
    Your pre-flop range is not capped, after all.

    But I'm not your standard micro-stakes mouth breather (I'm my own unique brand of such), so that's probably not hitting the nail on the head.
    It simply illustrates that a good place to start when trying to figure out a villain's range is to consider your own range.
    Then ask, how much better/worse than me do I think villain's reasoning is in this spot?
    Are they even nittier than you with a donk bet? Are they much wider than you with a donk bet?

    Understanding your own range and where it draws the line and just recognizing which side of that line villain is probably on is an important early step in learning to put villains on ranges.

    Do you think villain's range to raise/call PRE is tighter or wider than mine?
    How much / attach a range to that guess.

    Do you think the villain that donk bet the flop is more or less tight with that play than I am?
    How much / attach a range to that guess.

    Then we ask what combos in villains range (after they donk the flop) might fold if you raise OTF. For me, it's going to be hard for me to continue with less than a set. I'll probably call 1 or 2 bets with QQ, JJ, but I'm really not confident in TT-77 if there's a 3-bet OTF. Not without some read that Villain 3-bets super wide when their C-bets get push back.

    So you'd basically be folding out all of my hands but the 3 combos of sets and the 1 (maybe) NFD. Me dropping from 39 hands in my range to only 3, maybe 4 hands in my range is a huge win for you, even if you always expect to be shown that set of 6's when I call. That's why I have to call 1 or 2 bets with QQ, JJ. That's 6 combos each in my range and if I don't call with more than 4 hands, then my ranges are so out of balance that you can start raising that donk bet with impunity and a wide range. As such, I just turned 2 of the top hands in my range into bluff catchers, and that's not too good. I shouldn't be donk-betting out with QQ, JJ all the time, but I can't do it never, or my donk-bet is just a faceup set to someone like you who's paying attention to that stuff.

    Maybe it doesn't matter at the micros, 'cause almost no one is going to notice that pattern. ABC poker is so valuable at the micros because villains just wont exploit huge gaping leaks like that.


    Does this help you see how to start constructing Villain's ranges in study? First figure out what you'd do and why. Then when you find a leak in your own play, like I just did, you ask, "How can villains exploit this leak?" and "Is this Villain likely to have the same leak?" and "Can I exploit this weakness?"
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  6. #6
    Great analysis thank you for taking the time to do this, I need to read it a few times before I can form a reply it’s so in depth lol
  7. #7
    Do I need to consider my own range that often in micros? Like this hand for example is villain really thinking of what I am holding for me to take my own range into account? I’m a bit confused about that part. Should I just try to focus practicing and improving my skills at putting villain on ranges or should I still be doing both simultaneously
  8. #8
    Do I need to consider my own range that often in micros? Like this hand for example is villain really thinking of what I am holding for me to take my own range into account? I’m a bit confused about that part. Should I just try to focus practicing and improving my skills at putting villain on ranges or should I still be doing both simultaneously . I’m going to get my laptop in a minute and make a more detailed response.
  9. #9
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I think the considering of your own ranges is among the most important things to do in poker. In the micros, it's about just understanding what you're doing and why in the variety of situations you find yourself in. It's about finding your own leaks and figuring out why they're leaks and thinking about what adjustments you might need to make as a player to suck less.

    That is awesomely beneficial to you seeing patterns in Villains' ranges. You get the benefit of having perfect knowledge about your own ranges, which you'll never get for villains' ranges.
    What you do get, though is almost as good. You get a deeper, intuitive sense of how that leak looks and feels, and you'll be more sensitive to see it in others. You also get the benefit of having thought about why it's a leak, and what villains could do to you if they saw it. That tells you exactly what to do to the villains you spot with that leak.


    Understanding your own ranges is rocket fuel for poker study, IMO.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  10. #10
    I don't mind either a call or 3bet fold with QJs in these positions 111bb effective. Both are going to be marginally profitable, but I'd lean towards a call unless there are aggressive players behind that will squeeze.

    If villain is okay preflop, I'd expect him to call with all pocket pairs up to JJ and suited broadways, with AQo and maybe QQ/AKo. And let's say one slowplayed combo of AA.

    Population reads will help you in this spot. It might be reasonable to put villain on a range of medium pocket pairs, some nonsensical spew combos and maybe a few sets at 2nl. Draws tend to be played passively at the nano stakes, so we could discount that somewhat. The tendency to slow play also exists, as does an inability to fold over pairs to the board.

    I'm pretty comfortable getting stacks in here on the flop and moving on. Expecting to be flipping often, in bad shape rarely and having enough fold equity against random spew that has high equity against us. I think we're good often enough to take the same line with JJ+, and raise folding some AXs gut shots and other combos if we want to balance our raising range with some bluffs (but I wouldn't recommend that at all at 2nl)
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post

    ***


    But I'm not your standard micro-stakes mouth breather (I'm my own unique brand of such), so that's probably not hitting the nail on the head.
    It simply illustrates that a good place to start when trying to figure out a villain's range is to consider your own range.
    Then ask, how much better/worse than me do I think villain's reasoning is in this spot?
    Are they even nittier than you with a donk bet? Are they much wider than you with a donk bet?

    Understanding your own range and where it draws the line and just recognizing which side of that line villain is probably on is an important early step in learning to put villains on ranges.

    Do you think villain's range to raise/call PRE is tighter or wider than mine?
    How much / attach a range to that guess.

    Do you think the villain that donk bet the flop is more or less tight with that play than I am?
    How much / attach a range to that guess.

    Then we ask what combos in villains range (after they donk the flop) might fold if you raise OTF. For me, it's going to be hard for me to continue with less than a set. I'll probably call 1 or 2 bets with QQ, JJ, but I'm really not confident in TT-77 if there's a 3-bet OTF. Not without some read that Villain 3-bets super wide when their C-bets get push back.

    So you'd basically be folding out all of my hands but the 3 combos of sets and the 1 (maybe) NFD. Me dropping from 39 hands in my range to only 3, maybe 4 hands in my range is a huge win for you, even if you always expect to be shown that set of 6's when I call. That's why I have to call 1 or 2 bets with QQ, JJ. That's 6 combos each in my range and if I don't call with more than 4 hands, then my ranges are so out of balance that you can start raising that donk bet with impunity and a wide range. As such, I just turned 2 of the top hands in my range into bluff catchers, and that's not too good. I shouldn't be donk-betting out with QQ, JJ all the time, but I can't do it never, or my donk-bet is just a faceup set to someone like you who's paying attention to that stuff.

    Maybe it doesn't matter at the micros, 'cause almost no one is going to notice that pattern. ABC poker is so valuable at the micros because villains just wont exploit huge gaping leaks like that.


    Does this help you see how to start constructing Villain's ranges in study? First figure out what you'd do and why. Then when you find a leak in your own play, like I just did, you ask, "How can villains exploit this leak?" and "Is this Villain likely to have the same leak?" and "Can I exploit this weakness?"


    Yes what you said there has helped. I'm coming around to understanding how EV works and how it can be profit to get villains to fold parts of his range making it profitable.

    Do I think villain's raise/call pre-flop range is tighter or looser than mine? I don't really know the answer to that, I have 30 hands on him that say he likes to put money in pot but I don't know if that's much info, all I know is his range looks "capped" (if thats the term for a range that has hit a ceiling, a range that has shown its limits?), when any villain open raises and then just calls my 3-bet without reads I am thinking he has Ax, 2-facecards or pocket pair usually under QQ but no less than 88. thats an average I give players I don't know how accurate it is but thats basically what I am thinking.

    If I were to guess I would think his pre-flop raise/calling range is looser than mine ,I would only raise/call in this position with: JJ,TT, AT,AJ, KQs, I would fold KJs,QJ, and I would probrably 4-bet with AQ,AK,AA,KK,QQ.

    Do I think villain that donk-bet the flop is more tight or less tight than me in that play? the only time I donk-bet a flop is if I have a set/two pair/ or TPTK on a board that is drawy or has multiply people in it and I don't want to let people have the chance to check through and getting some fold equity sometimes with the top pair. On this board though , 66,44,22, any two pairs, and over-pairs to protect them, I would probrably check-call or check-raise the nut flushes here. I don't know if villains donk bet is looser or tighter than mine , maybe about equal?
  12. #12
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Do I think villain's raise/call pre-flop range is tighter or looser than mine? I don't really know the answer to that, I have 30 hands on him that say he likes to put money in pot but I don't know if that's much info,
    "likes to put money in the pot"
    Looser than you, then. When you're guessing at their ranges, include whatever you'd have in that spot, + some.


    It's more important to first know whether they're playing positionally aware preflop ranges than to know their VPIP, IMO.
    Also try to note whether or not they limp PRE. If they sometimes limp and sometimes don't, that tells you even more info about their ranges.
    If someone is doing neither of these, then you can safely put them as someone who's trying to learn the game and isn't just there for a hobby.

    all I know is his range looks "capped" (if thats the term for a range that has hit a ceiling, a range that has shown its limits?),
    A range becomes capped when a player could have raised, and would have raised with some hands, but instead they called. Since they called, they don't have the combos in their range that they would have raised with. We assume that if they'd raise, they'd do it with their strongest combos and maybe some weakest ones. Since they didn't raise, that means they don't have those combos.
    We can conclude their range does not contain those strongest combos anymore.
    I never hear anyone talking about the bottom of villain's range being capped, but I don't see why it wouldn't be.

    when any villain open raises and then just calls my 3-bet without reads I am thinking he has Ax, 2-facecards or pocket pair usually under QQ but no less than 88. thats an average I give players I don't know how accurate it is but thats basically what I am thinking.

    If I were to guess I would think his pre-flop raise/calling range is looser than mine ,I would only raise/call in this position with: JJ,TT, AT,AJ, KQs, I would fold KJs,QJ, and I would probrably 4-bet with AQ,AK,AA,KK,QQ.
    Excellent!
    Make a guess and trust your gut.

    I wouldn't rule out small PP's from any villain's preflop range at the micros. Most of the villains will play any PP from any position to any preflop action, is my guess.

    Do I think villain that donk-bet the flop is more tight or less tight than me in that play? the only time I donk-bet a flop is if I have a set/two pair/ or TPTK on a board that is drawy or has multiply people in it and I don't want to let people have the chance to check through and getting some fold equity sometimes with the top pair. On this board though , 66,44,22, any two pairs, and over-pairs to protect them, I would probrably check-call or check-raise the nut flushes here. I don't know if villains donk bet is looser or tighter than mine , maybe about equal?
    "Call it equal?"
    Then that's what we'll do.
    We can only work with our best guesses, so we'll make a guess and roll with it. If it was a bad guess, we'll revise next time.


    What's your actual range to see that flop (from MP2), given the preflop action? How many combos?
    What's in your range from PRE to donk bet? How many combos?
    Use this info to determine the equity for a call vs. a fold from Hero OTF. Save those numbers for a minute.

    When a villain, who 3-bet PRE, raises your donk bet on this board, what combos fold and what combos call / raise?

    Assume Hero folds to a 3-bet from the donk better in this hand and calculate the EV of a raise in response to the donk bet.
    Use whatever is your most likely raise size.

    This can go on, but it's not a bad place to stop for now.

    Now you've got an equity calc for the following lines of flop action
    b/f
    b/c
    b/b/f
    b/b/c
    b/b/b/f

    Hero's actions in bold for clarity. We know the first action is a donk bet, so all actions start with Villain's b.
    Which line gives Hero the greatest EV?
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  13. #13
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    EDIT: The final question is a bit misleading.
    I meant to ask:
    Which action from Hero in response to the donk-bet gives the highest EV?

    The 3 scenarios that fork from Hero raising the donk bet are all added together into 1 EV calc.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  14. #14
    My range to see the flop (without 4-betting) JJ-88, ATs,AJs,KQs, maybe QJs sometimes.
    My range to donk bet given this flop is overpairs only, I would probrably check-raise with nutflushes? so JJ-88= 24 combos


    When villain re-raises my donk-bet here I am am probrably only calling with JJ,TT. maybe nutflush? or is it better to fold or shove the nut flushes? anyways thats 12 combos (if I decide to donk w nutflush Still not sure if I would probrably check-raise is better)

    When he re-raises my donk bet Idk I guess I could shove with JJ,TT and nut flushes ? we can give ourselves 14 combos,thats including ATss and AKss. Im kind of confused about the rest of what we do here. could you try to re-phrase plz
  15. #15
    Played fine, now call river.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  16. #16
    I wouldn't hate a flop raise.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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