Puke and fold?

Villain is 22/14 over 74 hands, only 3bets 3.6% (obv small sample, but has had 28 opportunities).

Puke-fold turn?

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Converted at http://www.handhistoryconverter.com/

Button ($28.58)
SB ($17.73)
BB ($25)
UTG ($24.65)
MP ($12.50)
Hero (CO) ($38.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $0.75, Button raises to $2.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.85) 6, 8, J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $3.14, Hero calls $3.14

Turn: ($11.13) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7.22

Hero pukes.

We're obviously up against AK QQ+ with worse only very occasionally, and we have blockers to QQ. I think I'm puke folding pre against this guy at these stakes, or maybe thin setmining. Not folding pre at lower stakes, I think I 4bet and happily get it in. As played I think call flop fold turn is probably best, but I hate this line and it shows why I want to fold pre.

meh 6 outs when behind and i almost want to check-shove turn. Except that folding is better. Don't call turn unless you are happy check-calling river for stacks

dont see why we cant c/c turn c/f river

meh nvm we have the Qc

c/r the flop and get it in. This is your flop, no A or K. If he has AA or KK that's a cooler. He doesn't have to have AA or KK to bet the turn. He could still be betting trying to get you to fold your KQ or TT or whatever you called the 3bet with. Judging by some of your other posts, no offense, just saying, he might see you as rather loose and bluffy and be unwilling to give up the pot to you. As for the 3bet stat I wouldn't trust it over 70 hands. This guy I was playing today was 15/10 over his first 100 hands, 3bet 3%, 400 hands later he's 35/30 3betting 7%. So you never know. I think you have to go with it on this flop.

Originally Posted by abelardx

This guy I was playing today was 15/10 over his first 100 hands, 3bet 3%, 400 hands later he's 35/30 3betting 7%.

It is within a 90% confidence interval that a "actual value" of 7% will look like a 3% over a sample of 100 hands.

Originally Posted by abelardx

So you never know.

Depends on how well you understand statistics, and error bars.

Ok here's what I don't understand. You figure he's 3betting a tight range. Seems like a favorable board for your hand... so aside from a Q, what other boards did you expect to c/c the flop then c/f the turn with an overpair when you called his 3bet pre? Just seems like if we put him on that tight of range preflop that we never should have called the 3bet in the first place unless we're just set mining.

I think it's fine to call pre call this flop and fold this turn. He can have JJ and AK as well as the occasional TT/AQ or very rare bluff that can play preflop and flop this way but hardly ever play turn this way (obv JJ now beats us but yo get the drift.) I play the same and don't even puke when I fold the turn cos i think this is a really standard line for us to take and it comes up a fair bit vs nits. We also have excellent implied odds here to flop a set and can defo play very well vs this straightforward villain by playing just like this. If his 3-bet range really is as tight as QQ+ AK he still has 16 combos of AK and only 12 of KK+ so if we're confident he never makes us fold the best hand when he has AK when we call flop fold turn on non A/K high boards. (which i think is a good assumption) our hand plays pretty well for a call pre.

Forget the Jc is even out there then, say the board is like 682r. Do you still take the same line?

It very much depends on our read of his 3-bet range, but I would play 682r the same way vs this guy with the assumption he just isn't firing two with Ak on low boards and doesn't have all JJ in his preflop 3-bet range and even if he does, sometimes nit checks turns with JJ. So yeah same plan.

I'm going to force someone to empty their clip on the river to take me off QQ.

That being said, I never see 3% 3bets in my games, so I don't hate a turn fold.

I'd say forcing someone like this at these stakes to fire 2 here is equivalent to forcing a guy at your stakes with normal reg stats to fire 3. In fact it's prolly more likely the reg at your stakes 3--barrells air than it is this guy bets it on the turn (maybe :-/)

I'm folding the turn (and not puking).

This guy seems pretty tight passive. I don't expect him to barrel turn with AK/AQ often, maybe not even AcKc (and we block AcQc). I expect him to barrel river even less. He probably isn't 3bet bluffing at all really, so the worst hand I'd expect to see regularly on the turn is probably TT/AcKc (if he 3bets something like TT+, AQ+) and if he is 3betting tighter then we are obviously in worse shape.

While we aren't doing badly against TT+, AQs+, if he is capable of firing the turn with AQs+ then he is more likely to be able to fire the river as well so I don't really like calling the turn and folding the river without a read and I think calling all the way is total spew.

I think fold turn > call turn fold river >>>> call down or anything to do with raising.

Originally Posted by Pelion

I think fold turn > call turn fold river >>>> call down or anything to do with raising.

Yup

I'll puke if he catches the river
otherwise I think the queens are good to go all the way
not sure whether a river 10 would be a good thing or not.

We haz QQ and two outs to trup queens, why fold such overbet? Looks like the villain doesn't want us to see SD, danm it, be a man and call turn!

Originally Posted by ISillyDurrrAK

We haz QQ and two outs to trup queens, why fold such overbet? Looks like the villain doesn't want us to see SD, danm it, be a man and call turn!

what