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NL5-Unsuccessful resteal situation

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  1. #1

    Default NL5-Unsuccessful resteal situation

    Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

    Hero (SB): $5.14 (102.8 bb)
    BB: $5.97 (119.4 bb)
    UTG+2: $3.46 (69.2 bb)
    MP1: $4.29 (85.8 bb)
    MP2: $3.81 (76.2 bb)
    MP3: $6.65 (133 bb)
    CO: $5.70 (114 bb)
    BTN: $5.80 (116 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with A 6
    5 folds, BTN raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, BB folds, BTN raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.65

    Flop: ($2.25) 3 J 9 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $1.35, Hero raises to $4.04, BTN calls $2.69

    Turn: ($10.33) J (2 players)
    River: ($10.33) 2 (2 players)

    Results: $10.33 pot ($0.43 rake)
    Final Board: 3 J 9 J 2
    Hero showed A 6
    BTN showed ......

    Sorry for my english. I recently started to learn it.

    Villain is 14/10 over 268 hands.
    Atempt to steal - 46
    3bet - 5
    Fold to 3bet - 80
    Fold to resteal - 67

    So it is not a good sample to rely on his folding tendencies but definetely we can assume that he plays a lot of cards on the button and he can find fold buton to 3bet.
    My preflop plan was to make him fold. When he 4bets my pot odds are 3,5 to 1 (if I did the math correctly) I call because I think I get a good price and when i hit my flush he will pay me off because he is showing a very strong range by 4 betting me. I am not sure about that play though because of low SPR after call. What do you think guys?
    After his 4 bet I put him on something like this:
    Preflop range: {JJ+, AK}
    I think he cbets all his hands OTF. I assume that he would fold AK combos after my shove (maybe except AdKs, AhKs, AcKs) - it would be 6 combos folded out of his 30. It gives me 20% fold equity and after he call my shove with {JJ+}, I still have 40% pot equity and I get breakeven pot odds - slightly better than 40%.

    Questions:
    1) Is this right that even I get breakeven pot odds in shove situation it is profitable play because of 20% FE? Or maybe I should just call the flop and x/f turn if I don't hit my flush.

    2) What do you think guys about my thought process on preflop game? Was it correct to 3 bet? Was it correct to call Villains 4bet?

    3) What do you think about assigned preflop range to Villain? Is it reasonable?

    Thank you guys in advance for your insight.
    I didn't show how the hand ended because I think that lack of this information will serve better to our discussion. Of course I will show it later.
    Last edited by placebo; 06-09-2016 at 02:44 PM.
  2. #2
    I think the pre-flop 3b is fine, but fold to the 4b for sure. IF you have a very good read that he's light I would 5b jam (as opposed to calling the 4b OOP).

    As played - Flop c/r is ofc fine on this flop.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I haven't played any online poker in years, now. So grain of salt with my advice.

    I didn't really see a problem with this hand until Griffey pointed out that PRE is not too bad, but not the best, either.

    1) If you're correct that your pot odds were equal to your equity with Villain's calling range, then yes, you're free-rolling on the portion of his range that folds to your bet. You're breaking even when called, so we know that whatever else contributes to the EV of this spot is the total EV. The fold equity is +EV, so the line is +EV. (Assuming that the pot odds are equal to your equity against Villain's calling range.)

    2) I'd be more likely to flat with A6s - A9s and to 3-bet semi-bluff with A2s - A5s. I would rather turn the more speculative hands into the semi-bluffs. There's not altogether too much difference in playability between A2 and A9, anyway. I'd rather have the extra equity on the wheel draws when I 3-bet bluff PRE. I'd rather have a slightly better kicker / mid-pairing card when I'm not giving Villain an extra chance to fold out his wide range.

    Def. fold to that 4-bet from this player. You have over 100 hands. This is about the time to look at the stats and start taking them a tiny bit seriously. not too seriously. barely any seriousness at all, really. but a little bit of seriousness, nonetheless. This guy is playing 14/10 with ATS of over 45%. He's rocking a positionally aware TAG style and isn't re-re-stealing on you very often, if at all. I mean... if he's gone full aggro your last 5 3-bets on BTN v/blind, then start finding a hand to push back at him. A6s isn't bad, but I'd prefer A5s.

    I know that letting someone push you off your SB 3-bet 4 to 5 times in a row seems like bad play, but against this guy... I'm not convinced he's playing a stupidly aggressive BTN v blind scenario out every time. You'd certainly be aware of it in short order if you're 3-betting a range which includes A6s and other semi-bluff type hands.

    3) I'd be surprised if he keeps JJ in there to 4-bet without some history between the 2 of you. JJ is a tricky pair to play and he's gong to burn a lot of the value by letting you to fold your mid-high pairs PRE.
  4. #4
    I think everything you say is fine in terms of villain's preflop range and your flop play is okay (but not going to be massively profitable).

    3betting pre is fine as we probably get enough folds against this guy and we have decent equity when called. Calling the 4bet is a big mistake though against villain's 4bet range, especially because we'll be out of position post flop. You mention about the pot odds for calling the 4bet, but you're ignoring how often you'll miss the flop, or get stacked even when you flop top pair. This type of flop occurs a lot less than you think too, and even then we don't love getting the money in. I'd either fold versus the 4bet (recommended), or jam it in if there's enough of a dynamic between you and villain.
  5. #5
    Yeah I'm folding to the 4bet for sure.

    His fold-to-3b stat is high so I'd definitely have a go with this hand, but when he raises we know we're utterly dominated and we really only ever want to see spades. What's worse is that I'm unconvinced a 14/10 with a 5% 3b stat is going to 4bet AKo, he might even flat AKs and QQ, which means that we have no fold equity on the vast majority of flops, if not all, once villain has cbet. This is KK+ far too often. So when we flop the best we can reasonably hope for, a nut flush draw, we're practically forced to get the money in bad.

    As played, I'm shoving flop too, but I think it's -ev because I think we're facing KK+ and he always calls.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #6
    I shove flop thinking "I hope he has AK in his range and folds it", because then I can see this being profitable, just, on the flop. But still not profitable enough to pay for the mistake of calling the 4b pre flop. I'd be wanting at least 20:1 implied odds to take this to a flop, here we have like 8:1 or something, we can't even setmine at this price, let alone flush mine.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
    Thank you guys for your insigt in such a great details.

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    As played, I'm shoving flop too, but I think it's -ev because I think we're facing KK+ and he always calls.
    If it comes to ev of my play OTF (based on my assumptions about Villains range described in earlier post) I would like to make sure if I evaluate it in the correct way.

    So the assumptions are:
    -fold equity - 20%
    -pot equity against Villains range on this specific flop - 40%

    EV=0.2x3.6$+0.8x(0.4x6.29$-0.6x4.04)=0.79$=15.8bb

    Do I calculate it ok?
  8. #8
    I'm not brilliant with ev calculations, I tend to make mistakes when I break stuff down properly, I'll let someone else analyse your method. I tend to make reasonably accurate estimates, I basically take advantage of my natural gift for maths, while lazily refusing to put the effort in to make the most of that gift.

    I think shoving flop is -ev because...

    We have a nut flush draw vs KK+ and have no fold equity at all (in my opinion, of course). We're going to make the nuts around 1 in 3 times, while hitting a winning ace very occasionally, although I would be guessing if I tried to quantify how often an ace is good for us. It's not often enough for it to make a huge difference to our equity, that I'm happy with. With 33% equity, the dead money pre flop would need to match (or be more than) our remaining stack for this to be close. But our stack is bigger.

    If we have fold equity, things change a lot. When he cbets, that money (or at least some of it) can be counted as dead money. But only if he has hands he folds. If he calls 100% of the time, then his cbet isn't dead money, we can't steal any of it and we still need to match it. But I don't think we do have fold equity. And I don't think even having AKs in his range helps us enough, especially since we block spades, so there's only 3 combos. I think we need him to have AKo, and we need him to fold it more often than not. I do think it's reasonable that we can get AKo to fold, but certainly we should make a note if he calls it.

    I'm not sure if my method is accurate, which is why I wouldn't fold the flop. I think shoving when he always calls is -ev, but it doesn't take much for me to be wrong about to tip the balance. I might be wrong that he always calls.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 06-12-2016 at 10:47 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I'm not brilliant with ev calculations, I tend to make mistakes when I break stuff down properly, I'll let someone else analyse your method. I tend to make reasonably accurate estimates, I basically take advantage of my natural gift for maths, while lazily refusing to put the effort in to make the most of that gift.

    I think shoving flop is -ev because...

    We have a nut flush draw vs KK+ and have no fold equity at all (in my opinion, of course). We're going to make the nuts around 1 in 3 times, while hitting a winning ace very occasionally, although I would be guessing if I tried to quantify how often an ace is good for us. It's not often enough for it to make a huge difference to our equity, that I'm happy with. With 33% equity, the dead money pre flop would need to match (or be more than) our remaining stack for this to be close. But our stack is bigger.

    If we have fold equity, things change a lot. When he cbets, that money (or at least some of it) can be counted as dead money. But only if he has hands he folds. If he calls 100% of the time, then his cbet isn't dead money, we can't steal any of it and we still need to match it. But I don't think we do have fold equity. And I don't think even having AKs in his range helps us enough, especially since we block spades, so there's only 3 combos. I think we need him to have AKo, and we need him to fold it more often than not. I do think it's reasonable that we can get AKo to fold, but certainly we should make a note if he calls it.

    I'm not sure if my method is accurate, which is why I wouldn't fold the flop. I think shoving when he always calls is -ev, but it doesn't take much for me to be wrong about to tip the balance. I might be wrong that he always calls.

    I mean this all comes down to our reads:

    If we're flatting the 4b OOP, this implies that we think he's 4b wide/aggro (otherwise we should be folding pre to 4b). If we think he 4b wide/aggro then he presumably has a lot of Ax and other nonsense. If this is true, then we have fold equity on flop and should be shoving.

    If we don't have fold equity his range is too tight. If his range is too tight we should be folding pre and not getting into this situation in the first place.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  10. #10
    If we don't have fold equity his range is too tight. If his range is too tight we should be folding pre and not getting into this situation in the first place.
    This pretty much nails it for me. The call pre flop has put us in a horrible position where we're committed to gambling that someone who 3bets 5% has folds in his range on Jxx in a 4bet pot.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  11. #11
    This discusion is very eye opening for me. Thak you guys

    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I mean this all comes down to our reads:
    If we're flatting the 4b OOP, this implies that we think he's 4b wide/aggro (otherwise we should be folding pre to 4b). If we think he 4b wide/aggro then he presumably has a lot of Ax and other nonsense. If this is true, then we have fold equity on flop and should be shoving.

    If we don't have fold equity his range is too tight. If his range is too tight we should be folding pre and not getting into this situation in the first place.
    I suspected that Villains has wider range than KK+ when he 4-bets me(because it is stealing situation and it is NL5 so Villain could have {JJ+ AK}, simply because the average player is not very much educated, but not wide enough, that we could justify my call OOP due to the low SPR - I did't notice that during the play. So my preflop play I think is a massive mistake. If it comes to my flop play it is debatable. It all depends on Villains range of course. But I am glad about my play if the Villain has (JJ+ AKo). The other way shove isn profitable as you guys say.

    What about the other line to play this on the flop. What about x/c OTF. We are getting 2.6:1 pot odds and we have 4.5:1 to hit our nutflush on the turn. Do we have any IO here? Do you think Villain puts the rest of his stack with overpairs ?
  12. #12
    What about the other line to play this on the flop. What about x/c OTF. We are getting 2.6:1 pot odds and we have 4.5:1 to hit our nutflush on the turn. Do we have any IO here? Do you think Villain puts the rest of his stack with overpairs ?
    We certainly have some implied odds because the rest of the money goes in on the turn very often when we call flop, but do we have enough? Let's have a look... at flop, the pot is 45bb, and villain's cbet is 27bb, so let's round it down to a total of 70bb with 50bb behind, that rounding roughly accounts for losses due to rake. So if villain always puts the rest in on turn, we're calling 27bb to win 120bb... that's good enough to make the call, provided we have the discipline to fold when he shoves a bad turn.

    If he checks turn, well we see river for free and our flop call was fine because we got to see two streets at 2.6:1 or whatever, when all we needed was 2:1, and he surely calls a river shove sometimes vs a spade to boost our equity further. We might even be able to push him off his AK at river when we both miss, being out of position helps us here because it won't just look like a missed nfd, it could be we tried to trap him on the turn. Missed AK should be folding river, and that's just about all he can check back on turn.

    Calling flop is actually viable here. If villain always shoves turn, we have implied odds, and if he doesn't, then we had a good enough price on flop to call and reasses turn.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 06-13-2016 at 09:00 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  13. #13
    The fact we can call this flop doesn't make the pre flop call any better though. We still made a muge mistake there.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  14. #14
    I would say AA always shoves turn and KK is shoving all non ace turns. We can call AJ on flop. AA and most KK won't have the spade, so will hate to see another one, while the KK that does have the spade won't hate a spade turn so much. So yeah I don't expect him to slow down overpairs when we bink the turn because the pot is just too big now for him to give up on.

    I only expect AK to check turn, which is great because we can make him fold that.

    I like calling flop upon analysis. It seems better than shoving. I still hate the call pre flop though, obviously.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 06-13-2016 at 08:58 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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